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Trainer profile

Paul O'Flynn

144 runners in the last 5 seasons · 23 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 15 days ago 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2022
8–144
Wins / Runs
5.6%
Strike rate
n=144
30 (21%)
Placed
0.89
Fair A/E
n=144 · 0.71 incl. margin
−60.50
£1 level stake
n=144 at SP · −42.0%
£116k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.89).

Deterministic profile computed from 144 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6.5%
The read

The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (9.4%, n=32). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 2.1% over 47 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.85 across 90 runners (4.4% strike, −49.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: West Cork Wildway (IRE) — 5 wins from 38 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%+0.9
n=31 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −22.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.6
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
7.7%+2.1
n=13 · A/E 2.47 · £1 +2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +0.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.4%−1.2
n=68 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −17.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break 2.1% vs 5.6% · n=47
Off a 15-30-day break 9.4% vs 5.6% · n=32
With horses switching code 2.2% vs 5.6% · n=45
With Darragh O'Keeffe 8.5% vs 5.6% · n=47
Over 1m5f – 2m 3.3% vs 5.6% · n=30
In Hurdle races 4.4% vs 5.6% · n=90 · A/E 0.85
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 90 4 4.4% −49.50
Chase 41 2 4.9% −32.00
NH Flat 7 1 14.3% +12.00
Flat 6 1 16.7% +9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 49 3 6.1% −21.50
Good 38 2 5.3% −21.50
Heavy 29 1 3.4% −10.00
Good to Soft 28 2 7.1% −7.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Killarney 22 2 9.1% −3.50
Thurles 20 2 10% +4.50
Clonmel 19 0 0% −19.00
Cork 17 2 11.8% +5.50
Listowel 16 1 6.3% −3.00
Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00
Tramore 7 0 0% −7.00
Tipperary 6 0 0% −6.00
Wexford 6 1 16.7% −1.00
Galway 6 0 0% −6.00
Punchestown 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 2 0 0% −2.00
Leopardstown 1 0 0% −1.00
Naas 1 0 0% −1.00
Roscommon 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 1 33.3% 1.65 +0.50
2nd–3rd fav 27 3 11.1% 0.82 −13.00
4th–6th fav 41 2 4.9% 0.71 −7.00
7th+ in betting 73 2 2.7% 1.04 −41.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
93.1% completed · 131 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 41 95.1% 0 0 2 0 0
Hurdle 90 92.2% 2 0 5 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
A Nod To Getaway (IRE) 32 4 13 5 Mar 26
West Cork Wildway (IRE) 23 1 5 9 May 26
Quarry Lil (IRE) 13 0 2 3 Jun 23
Cregane Ned (IRE) 9 0 0 31 May 25
Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)from Michael John O'Connor 7 0 1 18 Oct 26
Brave Endeavour (IRE)from Miss M Harding 7 0 0 1 Jun 26
Russellsbelle (IRE)then Con McSweeney 7 0 3 3 Jun 23
Katie Dalie (IRE) 7 0 0 16 Apr 23
Shes So Glorious (IRE)then G Ahern 6 0 0 18 Sep 23
Rebel Treaty (IRE)then Con McSweeney 5 0 2 19 Oct 23
Rebel Budz (IRE) 4 1 2 22 Aug 26
Molly's Gamble (IRE)from Mrs Denise Foster · then G Ahern 4 0 0 30 Nov 23
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 23 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs Denise Foster (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for Con McSweeney (3) and G Ahern (3); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1101001400707170
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDarragh O'Keeffe
33% of all rides
8.5% SR · A/E 1.14
RiderRWSR£1
Darragh O'Keeffe 47 4 8.5% −29.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
23
Archived wins
£273k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 4 wins
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Boomerang.ie Handicap Hurdle Thurles · Dec 2020
£9,440
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Betvictor Irish Ebf Beginners Chase Thurles · Nov 2021
£8,260
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Brenda Sheedy Memorial Handicap Hurdle Cork · Nov 2025
£8,260
Notable horses
West Cork Wildway (IRE) Quarry Lil (IRE) A Nod To Getaway (IRE) Pops Well (IRE) Cregane Ned (IRE) Holly Flight (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Getaway (GER) 12.5% · 4–32
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,967 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Yeats (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,833 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Jeremy (USA) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Vinnie Roe (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,061 runs since 2010 (236 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 7.8% from 166.
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,306 runs since 2017 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,491 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 308 · newest first

The latest 50 of 308 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 June 2013 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 3rd 17/2
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh #Thisisracing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 100/1
26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Kevin A Murphy Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 16th 66/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race20f · Good · 11 ran 8th 125/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Moynihan Scaffolding Ltd. And The Warehouse Café Beginners Steeplechase17f · Good · 5 ran 4th 40/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Rebel Budz (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 17/2
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 9th 125/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div I)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 13th 300/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 18 ran 14th 250/1
29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Dylan O'Connor Tote.ie Money-Back 2nd Every Race Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 19 ran 5th 20/1
29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Tom Mac (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Tote Guaranteed 50K Placepot Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 20 ran 12th 66/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Luke Burke Ott Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase23f · Good · 12 ran PU 7/1
01 Jun 26 Listowel Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe John B. Keane Beginners Chase19f · Yielding · 6 ran 6th 28/1
30 May 26 Listowel Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: G B Noonan Insurance Wise Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 14/1
21 May 26 Limerick Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Calor Gas Handicap Chase (0-100)17.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 8/1
11 May 26 Killarney Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Killarney Oaks Hotel Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 6/1
09 May 26 Killarney West Cork Wildway (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Tote Killarney National Handicap Chase26f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 5th 13/2
16 Apr 26 Limerick Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 4th 28/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: G B Noonan Finbarr Quaid Electrical Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Yielding · 20 ran 13th 33/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Tom Mac (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Leisure Dome Ltd. Marquee Hire Maiden Hurdle23f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul O'Flynn's strike rate?
Paul O'Flynn has won 8 of 144 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul O'Flynn's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 144 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).