What is Nathan Howie's strike rate?

Nathan Howie has won 20 of 239 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nathan Howie do best at?

Compiegne (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 53 rides (9.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Nathan Howie ride most for?

M Seror, with 111 rides since 2022 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (8.1%).

What is Nathan Howie's Fair A/E?

0.85, from 238 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Nathan Howie

239 rides in the last 5 seasons · 129 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 237 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

20–239

Wins / Runs

8.4%

Strike rate

n=239

60 (25%)

Placed

0.85

Fair A/E

n=238 · 0.72 incl. margin

−95.83

£1 level stake

n=238 at SP · −40.3%

£681k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.85). Rides mostly for M Seror — 46% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 239 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance M Seror: 8.1% from 111 Claiming: 8.5%

The read

It is weakest at Auteuil (FR) (3.6% over 112 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 8.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −75.18 to a £1 stake over 189 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. M Seror supplies 46% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.1%, A/E 0.83). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 3.8% over 79 rides, 4.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Shantou Lucky (IRE) — 5 wins from 10 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.2%−0.2

n=122 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −16.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

21.1%+12.7

n=19 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −11.76

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.1%−1.3

n=70 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −30.57

When favourite

38.1%

n=21 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −2.73

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.5%+0.1

n=189 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −75.18

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.8%−2.6

n=52 · A/E 0.89 · £1 +5.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.4

n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With James Owen 20% vs 8.4% · n=30

At Auteuil (FR) 3.6% vs 8.4% · n=112

On Heavy going 3.8% vs 8.4% · n=79

With C&D winners 12.8% vs 8.4% · n=39

With horses switching code 5.8% vs 8.4% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 167 15 9% −34.75

Chase 72 5 6.9% −61.08

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 134 11 8.2% −27.00

Heavy 79 3 3.8% −54.20

Good 13 4 30.8% −4.27

Good to Soft 12 2 16.7% −9.36

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Auteuil (FR) 112 4 3.6% −82.20

Compiegne (FR) 53 5 9.4% −15.20

Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) 15 2 13.3% +2.10

Fontainebleau (FR) 13 2 15.4% −3.90

Clairefontaine (FR) 7 1 14.3% +30.00

Dieppe (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Huntingdon 3 0 0% −3.00

Worcester 3 1 33.3% −1.80

Plumpton 3 1 33.3% −0.12

Fontwell 3 1 33.3% −1.17

Southwell 2 0 0% −2.00

Stratford 2 1 50% +0.62

Uttoxeter 2 1 50% −0.60

Strasbourg (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Newton Abbot 2 1 50% −0.56

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 4 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 5 9 5 55.6% −0.51

Class 3 7 1 14.3% −4.12

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 21 8 38.1% 1.15 −2.73

2nd–3rd fav 47 4 8.5% 0.51 −28.40

4th–6th fav 71 6 8.5% 1.03 −19.10

7th+ in betting 99 2 2% 0.73 −45.60

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82% completed · 239 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 72 83.3% 6 3 3 0 0

Hurdle 167 81.4% 4 4 23 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Le Roi David (FR) 12 1 5 8 Jun 24

Shantou Lucky (IRE) 10 5 5 26 Jan 26

Great Feeling (FR) 6 0 1 12 Nov 23

Dandy Du Seuil (FR) 6 1 5 16 Oct 23

Hextrawel Du Porto (FR) 6 2 4 25 Oct 22

Mcgroarty (IRE) 5 1 1 28 Dec 22

Zinoa (FR) 5 0 2 4 Oct 22

Rasango (FR) 5 1 2 29 Sep 22

Oneinthewell (IRE) 4 0 0 18 Jan 26

Hosaville (FR) 4 0 1 24 Oct 23

Mandurose (FR) 4 0 3 17 Jun 23

Clondaw Cian (IRE) 4 0 0 13 Nov 22

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 129 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

201160141311014066

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardM Seror

46% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 0.83

TrainerRWSR£1

M Seror 111 9 8.1% −58.20

James Owen 30 6 20% −18.63

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£753k

Prize money

2023

Best season · 7 wins

Gold For Nizzy (FR) — Prix d'Acheres (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Jun 2023

£25,487

Le Roi David (FR) — Prix Pretentaine (Hurdle) (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · May 2023

£24,690

Mcgroarty (IRE) — Prix PMU l'Oree du Village Beuvron-En-Auge (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Clairefontaine (FR) · Jul 2022

£20,798

Notable horses

Shantou Lucky (IRE) Hextrawel Du Porto (FR) Le Roi David (FR) Dandy Du Seuil (FR) Rasango (FR) Mcgroarty (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bathyrhon (GER) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 12.4% of 1,192 runs since 2019 (188 horses).

Shantou (USA) 50% · 5–10

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,834 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Montmartre (FR) 25% · 2–8

Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,395 runs since 2013 (304 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.9% from 598. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 2.9% from 138.

Nicaron (GER) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 8.5% of 448 runs since 2011 (73 horses).

Great Pretender (IRE) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,551 runs since 2010 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.

Apsis (GB) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 8.3% of 785 runs since 2010 (91 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.2% from 115. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.5% from 112.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 268 · newest first

The latest 50 of 268 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 July 2017 to 14 March 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Mar 26 Uttoxeter Sixty Plus (IRE)T: James Owen JenningsBet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20f · Soft · 14 ran PU 80/1

26 Jan 26 Plumpton Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen Tysers Insurance Brokers Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Soft · 4 ran F 4/1

18 Jan 26 Fakenham Oneinthewell (IRE)T: James Owen Book Your Skip Online At fakenhamskips.co.uk Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 20/1

01 Jan 26 Windsor Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen Fitzdares Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 7th 10/1

26 Dec 25 Wetherby Oneinthewell (IRE)T: James Owen William Hill Each Way Extra Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 3/1F

15 Dec 25 Plumpton Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen G.E.White & Sons Agricultural Buildings Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 6/1

05 Dec 25 Sedgefield No More Bolero (GB)T: James Owen BetWright Safer Gambling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

29 Nov 25 Doncaster Charging Thunder (GB)T: James Owen Dransfields CIU National Charity Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 5/1

22 Nov 25 Huntingdon Market House (IRE)T: James Owen Download The PricedUp App Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 12/1

22 Nov 25 Huntingdon Forget The Way (GB)T: James Owen PricedUp The Jumps Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 4/1

22 Nov 25 Huntingdon Oneinthewell (IRE)T: James Owen Go Amwell Celebration Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 20/1

16 Nov 25 Fontwell Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen BetGoodwin Southern National Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 27.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 9/2

14 Nov 25 Southwell Oneinthewell (IRE)T: James Owen Checkout Case IH's New Optum Tractor 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 20/1

11 Nov 25 Hereford Lunar Power (IRE)T: James Owen BetWright Safer Gambling Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 10/3

08 Nov 25 Kelso Dom Of Mary (FR)T: James Owen Belhaven Brewery Wishing Well Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 7/2

03 Nov 25 Plumpton Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen John Weight Gone But Not Forgotten Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good · 3 ran 1st 15/8

24 Oct 25 Cheltenham Charging Thunder (GB)T: James Owen Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 7/1

19 Oct 25 Kempton Lunar Power (IRE)T: James Owen BOG Today For Tomorrow With CopyBet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 9/1

03 Oct 25 Fontwell Country Style Boy (IRE)T: James Owen RJS Waste Management UK Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 22/1

02 Oct 25 Southwell Shantou Lucky (IRE)T: James Owen Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 6/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nathan Howie's strike rate?: Nathan Howie has won 20 of 239 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nathan Howie do best at?: Compiegne (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 53 rides (9.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Nathan Howie ride most for?: M Seror, with 111 rides since 2022 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (8.1%).
What is Nathan Howie's Fair A/E?: 0.85, from 238 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.