No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rode around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.22). Rode mostly for Michael Chapman — 50% of rides in the window.
Deterministic profile computed from 152 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceMichael Chapman: 2.6% from 76
The read
First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=45, Fair A/E 0.51). Michael Chapman supplied 50% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (2.6% vs 6.6%, A/E 0.50). The rider also read well over 2m5f – 3m (12.2%, n=41). The record read poorly in Chase races — 2.2% over 46 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.2%−4.4
n=45 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −33.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
11.1%+4.5
n=9 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −5.25
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10.5%+3.9
n=19 · A/E 2.19 · £1 +17.10
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 3.53 · £1 +5.10
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.6%+0.0
n=151 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −52.15
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.1%+0.5
n=28 · A/E 2.01 · £1 −6.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Sue Smith18.8% vs 6.6% · n=32
Over 2m5f – 3m12.2% vs 6.6% · n=41
With Michael Chapman2.6% vs 6.6% · n=76
In Chase races2.2% vs 6.6% · n=46
On first rides for the horse2.2% vs 6.6% · n=45
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.6% vs 6.6% · n=39
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9499.6%−1.15
Chase4612.2%−40.00
NH Flat1200%−12.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6058.3%−23.15
Good to Soft29310.3%+21.50
Good to Firm2713.7%−20.50
Soft2613.8%−21.00
Heavy1000%−10.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fakenham1700%−17.00
Newcastle1218.3%−2.50
Southwell1218.3%+0.00
Carlisle10110%−4.00
Cartmel10110%+24.00
Hexham10220%+8.00
Ludlow9222.2%+1.25
Huntingdon900%−9.00
Market Rasen8112.5%−5.90
Catterick8112.5%−1.00
Doncaster600%−6.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Ascot500%−5.00
Sedgefield400%−4.00
Wetherby400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 47978.9%−36.65
Class 53837.9%+18.50
Class 32300%−23.00
Class 6800%−8.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite33100%3.73+7.85
2nd–3rd fav18316.7%1.23+1.50
4th–6th fav5335.7%0.94+2.50
7th+ in betting7811.3%0.57−65.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m6534.6%−48.75
2m5f – 3m41512.2%+22.60
2m1f – 2m4f3912.6%−27.00
Over 3m7114.3%+0.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200828414.3%−4.40
20094748.5%−18.75
20104600%−46.00
20113026.7%+17.00
2012100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7867.7%−25.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners48510.4%−19.75
8-10 runners4724.3%−31.90
5-7 runners2713.7%+7.00
14-16 runners2229.1%−0.50
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 53 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
701170005001908
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
13
Archived wins
£79,511
Prize money
2009
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Red Man (IRE) — Gosforth Decorating And Building Services Novices' Chase Sedgefield · May 2006 · Class 4
£5,070
Boulders Beach (IRE) — Membership At Southwell Golf Club Handicap Hurdle Southwell · Apr 2009 · Class 4
£4,944
Dark Oasis (GB) — Ludlow Racing Partnership Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Ludlow · Oct 2009 · Class 4
Progeny have won 3.5% of 254 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Spartacus (IRE)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 6.5% of 1,325 runs since 2008 (113 horses).
Dubai Destination (USA)22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Minster Son (IRE)22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 7.7% of 662 runs since 2008 (57 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 102.
Mark of Esteem (IRE)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,657 runs since 2008 (199 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 128.
Raise A Grand (IRE)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 7.5% of 811 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 115.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 257 · newest first
The latest 50 of 257 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 February 2005 to 13 January 2012.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Steven Gagan's strike rate?
Steven Gagan has won 10 of 152 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Steven Gagan ride most for?
Michael Chapman, with 76 rides since 2008 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.6%).
What is Steven Gagan's Fair A/E?
1.22, from 151 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Steven Gagan·SR 6.6%·A/E 1.22
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