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Trainer profile

Michael Chapman

172 runners in the last 5 seasons · 13 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 24 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
2–172
Wins / Runs
1.2%
Strike rate
n=172
7 (4%)
Placed
0.84
Fair A/E
n=172 · 0.72 incl. margin
+60.00
£1 level stake
n=172 at SP · +34.9%
£30,492
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.84).

Deterministic profile computed from 172 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read

The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (5.1%, n=39). The market has also underrated the yard in Class 5: Fair A/E 1.32 across 84 runners (2.4% strike, +148.00 to a £1 stake). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.00 across 76 runners (0% strike, −76.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Orpen Wide (IRE) — 18 wins from 164 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.2
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.2
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.2
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0.9%−0.3
n=117 · A/E 0.57 · £1 +34.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 5.1% vs 1.2% · n=39
In Class 5 2.4% vs 1.2% · n=84 · A/E 1.32
On Good going 0% vs 1.2% · n=76 · A/E 0.00
In Flat races 0% vs 1.2% · n=67 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 67 0 0% −67.00
Hurdle 60 1 1.7% +21.00
Chase 43 1 2.3% +108.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 76 0 0% −76.00
Good to Soft 39 2 5.1% +193.00
Standard (AW) 39 0 0% −39.00
Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00
Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00
Soft 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen 61 0 0% −61.00
Southwell (AW) 36 0 0% −36.00
Cartmel 17 1 5.9% +64.00
Southwell 14 0 0% −14.00
Huntingdon 6 0 0% −6.00
Catterick 6 0 0% −6.00
Nottingham 5 0 0% −5.00
Beverley 5 0 0% −5.00
Doncaster 4 0 0% −4.00
Stratford 3 1 33.3% +148.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Ripon 3 0 0% −3.00
Fakenham 3 0 0% −3.00
Newmarket 2 0 0% −2.00
Thirsk 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 84 2 2.4% +148.00
Class 6 53 0 0% −53.00
Class 4 34 0 0% −34.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 31 0 0% 0.00 −31.00
7th+ in betting 138 2 1.4% 1.39 +94.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Fast Deal (GB)from Tim Easterby 41 1 3 26 Sep 26
Straitouttacompton (GB)from Ivan Furtado 34 0 0 9 Jun 25
Raincloud (GB)from Alice Haynes 29 0 3 23 May 26
L'es Fremantle (FR) 20 0 0 1 Aug 23
Smart Connection (IRE)from Alice Haynes 17 1 1 10 Jan 24
Destination Unkown (IRE)from Grant Tuer 8 0 0 26 Sep 26
Tio Mio (IRE)from Alex French 8 0 0 26 Dec 24
Glacier Fox (GB)from Mark Loughnane 8 0 0 13 Aug 22
Cougar (JPN)from Iain Jardine · then Nick Kent 2 0 0 31 Aug 26
Swapped (FR)from Nick Kent 2 0 0 2 Jun 25
Luduamf (IRE)from Richard Hannon 1 0 0 10 May 24
Fenwold Flyer (IRE) 1 0 0 12 Jul 22
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 13 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alice Haynes (2); 3 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 11 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000700040000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
James Best 23 1 4.3% +58.00
Miss Aaliyah Bowers-Carter 16 0 0% −16.00
Harriet Tucker 11 0 0% −11.00
Philip Armson 8 0 0% −8.00
Miss Pippa Brown 7 0 0% −7.00
Daire Davis 7 0 0% −7.00
Alison Clarke 6 0 0% −6.00
Miss Kiah Adams 5 0 0% −5.00
Christian Howarth 5 0 0% −5.00
Phil Dennis 5 0 0% −5.00
Kieran O'Neill 4 0 0% −4.00
Alan Doyle 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
110
Archived wins
£781k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 25 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Epee Celeste (FR) — Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase Cartmel · Jul 2012 · Class 3
£9,747
Orpen Wide (IRE) — Ritz Club Novices' Chase Ascot · Apr 2008 · Class 3
£9,393
Siegfrieds Night (IRE) — Ladies Night Handicap Hurdle Southwell · Jun 2006 · Class 3
£7,807
Notable horses
Orpen Wide (IRE) Peak Seasons (IRE) Monzino (USA) Tayarat (IRE) Galley Slave (IRE) Mazovian (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fast Company (IRE) 2.4% · 1–41
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,590 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 557. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Compton Place (GB) 0% · 0–34
Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.
Ulysses (IRE) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,969 runs since 2008 (293 horses).
Orpen (USA) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 9% of 4,037 runs since 2008 (381 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.4% from 113.
Dutch Art (GB) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 12.1% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (600 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 18.1% from 700. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9% from 365.
Foxwedge (AUS) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,349 runs since 2008 (131 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,196 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,196 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 26 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Mr Joseph Stevenson Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 8th 300/1
26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: Mr Joseph Stevenson Dine In Altior's Restaurant Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 100/1
31 Aug 26 Ripon Cougar (JPN)J: Miss S L Watson Aja Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 150/1
29 Aug 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Cengiz Sadik Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (For The Cengiz Sadik Memorial Trophy)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 9th 66/1
29 Aug 26 Cartmel Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best RF Miller & Co Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 9th 300/1
15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Oddschecker+ Subscription Service Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 50/1
15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best Bet Smarter With Oddschecker+ Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 100/1
20 Jul 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Old Park Wood Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 9 ran 6th 250/1
20 Jul 26 Cartmel Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best Cumbria Grand Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 7th 200/1
15 Jul 26 Catterick Cougar (JPN)J: Miss Sophia Watson AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 80/1
12 Jun 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Rebecca Brooks Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 6th 250/1
23 May 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Molson Coors Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 125/1
23 May 26 Cartmel Raincloud (GB)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Cartmel Sticky Toffee Pudding Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good · 10 ran 8th 200/1
05 Apr 26 Market Rasen Raincloud (GB)J: Ben Poste Mariner Packaging Sing When We're Fishing Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 100/1
05 Apr 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Ben Poste Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 300/1
20 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Sean D Bowen Midnite Aint Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 300/1
06 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Make The Move To Midnite Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 150/1
26 Dec 25 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: Alan Doyle Rand Farm Park All Weather Attraction Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 125/1
26 Dec 25 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Alan Doyle Pallinc Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 200/1
14 Dec 25 Southwell Raincloud (GB)J: James Best attheraces.com/marketmovers Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Chapman's strike rate?
Michael Chapman has won 2 of 172 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Chapman do best at?
Market Rasen by strike rate: 0 wins from 61 runners (0%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Michael Chapman's Fair A/E?
0.84, from 172 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).