1:18 Hereford
This Class 4 novices' hurdle at Hereford over 2m3f147y on good to firm ground brings together eight runners, several of whom are unproven on the surface and at the trip. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Kamille Au Kanada just ahead on 60, followed by Jetbob on 59 and Jetzet on 57, indicating a race where experience and proven ability at the distance will be at a premium. Most of the field are dropping in class or making their hurdling debuts, and with no course form for the majority, the race poses several unanswered questions around stamina and ground suitability.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, and the confidence in this assessment is high. Kamille Au Kanada and Jetbob both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Jetzet is usually prominent and Valenciaga races handily, suggesting an early battle for the lead that could set the race up for hold-up types later on. The key question will be whether the pace collapses in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of those capable of producing their effort late, such as Fozzy Osbourne.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kamille Au Kanada KTB Selection60/100
Kamille Au Kanada has won two of her four starts over hurdles and arrives in good heart following a clear-cut success at this trip last month. She drops in class here, which should suit, although she has no experience of good to firm ground and no previous run at this course. The yard's 17% strike rate at Hereford from 48 runs matches their record elsewhere, while Sam Twiston-Davies, who has a 19% strike rate at the track from 234 rides, takes the mount. As a front-runner she is likely to set the pace or race prominently in a race where a strong gallop is expected. The dam has had only one other runner, which did not win, and she has only one previous run at today's trip, leaving a few minor questions.
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2Jetbob59/100
Jetbob has shown ability on both starts this year, finishing second on his most recent outing after registering a win at today's trip. He too drops in class, but remains lightly raced with only two career runs in the last year, which means the profile needs to be treated with caution and data confidence is low. The yard's 8% strike rate at Hereford from 24 runs is in line with their record elsewhere and there is no course form on record. Like the selection he tends to make the running or race on the pace, so he will be involved early in what is set to be a strong gallop. He has no experience of good to firm ground and his full brother Radharc Na Slaine won once from 21 runs.
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3Jetzet57/100
Jetzet has shown fair placed form in two bumper runs and now makes his hurdling debut while stepping up markedly in trip. The yard posts a strong 35% strike rate at Hereford from 17 runs, although the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track from 81 rides. With only two career starts and a going sample too small to judge, this remains very much an unknown quantity and there is no course form on record. Usually prominent, he will race handily on or close to the lead in a contest where the pace is likely to be strong. No experience of good to firm ground adds to the unknowns surrounding this four-year-old.
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4Theybouncewell48/100
Theybouncewell makes her debut with a useful pedigree as a half-sister to the Grade 2 winner Touch Me Not and out of a dam who has already produced two winners from four runners to race. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Hereford from 228 runs which sits in line with their overall figure, while Kielan Woods takes the ride. Data confidence is low as there is no racecourse form on which to judge her and she has no course win on record. By Old Persian, who has a 7% overall win rate from 28 runners, she represents a stable that can ready one first time. The lack of any public performance makes her hard to weigh up in what looks a competitive heat.
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5Valenciaga48/100
Valenciaga showed some promise when second on his hurdling debut but has been well held in three starts since and finished last of nine on this track. The yard’s 6% strike rate at Hereford is in line with their record elsewhere and he steps up markedly in trip today, which poses a fresh question while his limited overall form leaves plenty to prove.
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6John Galt43/100
John Galt has shown fair form in two starts this year and is stepping up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question. He has won once from two runs on good to firm ground and the yard's 11% strike rate at Hereford is in line with their record elsewhere, although this is his first appearance at the track.
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7Fozzy Osbourne42/100
Fozzy Osbourne has shown modest ability across six starts and remains with scope for improvement while stepping up markedly in trip from 1m to 2m3f. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Hereford from 42 runs, in line with the overall record, and as a hold-up type he could be favoured if the strong pace collapses late.
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8C'Est Pour Moi37/100
C'Est Pour Moi has shown very little in four starts to date with a string of modest efforts and steps up in trip today, which asks a fresh question of a horse that remains lightly raced. The yard has a 7% strike rate at Hereford from 15 runs and the 7lb claimer has no established record at the track.
KTB verdict
Kamille Au Kanada is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest recent form, having won two of her four starts including a clear-cut success at this trip last month. Her proven ability at the distance sets her apart in a field where several rivals are stepping up markedly in trip or making their hurdling debuts, and the drop in class further strengthens her position. She is likely to set the pace in a race with a strong gallop expected, although her lack of experience on good to firm ground is a minor concern. Jetbob is the most obvious danger having shown ability this year and winning at today's trip, while Jetzet and the debutant Theybouncewell add further unknowns to what looks an open novice event.
KTB Selection Kamille Au Kanada
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:16am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Kamille Au Kanada | 10/11 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Jetbob | 9/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Jetzet | 11/4 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Theybouncewell | 6/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Valenciaga | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| John Galt | 8/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Fozzy Osbourne | 66/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| C'Est Pour Moi | 70/1 | 7Bet, 12:15am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:18 Hereford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hereford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hereford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hereford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to contest the lead early?
Kamille Au Kanada and Jetbob both tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Jetzet is usually prominent and Valenciaga races handily.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in trip from 1m?
Fozzy Osbourne is stepping up from 1m to 2m3f, which is described as a fresh question.
What is the dam's record for Theybouncewell?
The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners, and she is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Touch Me Not.
Which horse has won once from two runs on good to firm ground?
John Galt has won once from two runs on good to firm ground.
How many previous runs at today's trip has the selection had?
Kamille Au Kanada has had only one previous run at today's trip.
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