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Trainer profile

Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls

337 runners in the last 5 seasons · 74 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 8.4% of 203 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.
In form — 4 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
53–337
Wins / Runs
15.7%
Strike rate
n=337
108 (32%)
Placed
0.99
Fair A/E
n=337 · 0.85 incl. margin
−67.71
£1 level stake
n=337 at SP · −20.1%
£655k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). With a claiming rider up the record reads 18% (33 runs). The yard is in form now — 4 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 337 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov 40.8% when favourite Tom Bellamy: 18.8% from 170 Claiming riders: 18.2% Sends off the favourite in 15% of races
The read

New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 11.3% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.76). Right now the yard is firing: 4 winners from 16 runners in the last 14 days (25%, 9.3pts above the 15.7% baseline). Tom Bellamy rides 50% of the entries and edges the yard's average (18.8% vs 15.7%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (21.5%, n=93) and in Hurdle races (19.1%, n=204). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 11.2% over 107 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham (Mar 2026, £59,084). Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
15.1%−0.6
n=106 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −50.46
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.3%−4.4
n=53 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −35.18
Debutants · first career start
14.3%−1.4
n=21 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −5.92
First-time headgear · true-first definition
36.8%+21.1
n=19 · A/E 2.54 · £1 +17.28
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
40.8%
n=49 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −6.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
18.2%+2.5
n=33 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −2.48
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
8.3%−7.4
n=12 · A/E 0.59 · £1 +29.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 30.2% vs 15.7% · n=53
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 21.5% vs 15.7% · n=93
In Chase races 11.2% vs 15.7% · n=107
With C&D winners 10% vs 15.7% · n=30
With a new jockey booking 11.8% vs 15.7% · n=119
In Hurdle races 19.1% vs 15.7% · n=204
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 204 39 19.1% −4.44
Chase 107 12 11.2% −46.27
NH Flat 16 2 12.5% −7.00
Flat 10 0 0% −10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 145 22 15.2% −10.19
Good to Soft 103 19 18.4% −20.05
Soft 61 8 13.1% −28.30
Heavy 13 4 30.8% +5.83
Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00
Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow 26 3 11.5% −12.50
Worcester 25 2 8% −21.13
Huntingdon 23 4 17.4% −2.50
Warwick 21 3 14.3% −4.90
Ffos Las 19 1 5.3% −11.50
Hereford 17 6 35.3% +0.15
Uttoxeter 17 3 17.6% −8.42
Doncaster 15 4 26.7% −1.00
Cheltenham 14 2 14.3% +31.00
Southwell 13 3 23.1% −3.43
Market Rasen 12 2 16.7% −2.50
Ludlow 12 2 16.7% −2.93
Kempton 12 2 16.7% +3.00
Haydock 11 2 18.2% +0.75
Wincanton 11 2 18.2% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 171 31 18.1% −53.99
Class 5 61 7 11.5% −9.00
Class 3 54 9 16.7% −19.22
Class 2 27 5 18.5% −2.50
Class 1 18 1 5.6% +23.00
Class 6 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 55 22 40% 1.06 −3.79
2nd–3rd fav 120 23 19.2% 1.04 −2.92
4th–6th fav 100 6 6% 0.71 −53.00
7th+ in betting 62 2 3.2% 0.84 −8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.3% completed · 311 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 107 69.2% 10 3 20 0 0
Hurdle 204 89.2% 3 4 15 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Court In A Storm (IRE)from Kim Bailey 12 4 5 3 Nov 26
Wild Goose (IRE)from Kim Bailey 12 3 6 23 Oct 26
Campaign Trail (IRE)from Kim Bailey 11 1 5 19 Jul 26
Moon Rocket (IRE)from Kim Bailey 10 2 4 24 Oct 26
Guchen (FR)from Kim Bailey 10 2 3 9 Oct 26
Reallyntruthfully (IRE)from Kim Bailey 9 2 4 10 Oct 26
Faerie Cutlass (GB)from Kim Bailey 9 0 0 15 Jul 26
Amazing Cleni (FR)from Kim Bailey 9 1 1 13 Mar 26
Gerard Mentor (FR)from Kim Bailey 9 0 2 27 Nov 25
Law Of Supply (IRE)from Kim Bailey 8 0 2 2 Nov 26
Island Bridge (IRE) 8 0 3 22 Oct 26
Draco Malfoy (IRE)from Kim Bailey 8 2 4 7 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 74 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kim Bailey (38); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 58 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form
4 from 16 25% · +9.3pts vs baseline
Last 14 days25%
5-season base15.7%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
18101410290000202622
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom Bellamy
50% of all rides
18.8% SR · A/E 1.11
RiderRWSR£1
Tom Bellamy 170 32 18.8% +1.50
Ciaran Gethings 94 15 16% −26.73
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
53
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£655k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 28 wins
White Noise (IRE) — Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2026 · Grade 2
£59,084
Matty's Getaway (IRE) — Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Haydock · May 2026 · Class 2
£20,812
Matty's Getaway (IRE) — Dragonbet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race) Chepstow · Oct 2026 · Class 2
£13,202
Notable horses
Court In A Storm (IRE) White Noise (IRE) Wild Goose (IRE) Matty's Getaway (IRE) Gatineau Park (IRE) Moon Rocket (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Getaway (GER) 18.8% · 3–16
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Kingston Hill (GB) 35.7% · 5–14
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,649 runs since 2019 (204 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.4% from 168.
Kayf Tara (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,754 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 30.8% · 4–13
Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,024 runs since 2011 (703 horses).
Court Cave (IRE) 33.3% · 4–12
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,953 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Yeats (IRE) 25% · 3–12
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,836 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 337 · newest first

The latest 50 of 337 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 January 2025 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Nov 26 Warwick Court In A Storm (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Jets Richard Davis Awards Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 1st 11/10F
02 Nov 26 Southwell Jetzet (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Winter Ladies Night Saturday 27th November 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 14/1
02 Nov 26 Southwell Law Of Supply (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 100/30F
01 Nov 26 Worcester Hidden Mountain (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Copybet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 1st 4/6F
01 Nov 26 Worcester High Tea (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 6th 18/1
01 Nov 26 Worcester Jukebox King (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 12th 4/1
31 Oct 26 Ascot Brendas Asking (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Lavazza Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 5th 20/1
29 Oct 26 Stratford Gatineau Park (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Happy Birthday Penny Tyacke Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 5/2F
29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Lully Du Houx (FR)J: Ciaran Gethings Golwg Gwendraeth Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 7 ran 1st 13/2
29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Feel No Fear (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings bettingsites.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 5/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee I Spy A Diva (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 18/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Cask Of Pimlico (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 22/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Moon Rocket (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 12th 11/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Sogna In Grande (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings William Hill Epic Boosts Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 6th 14/1
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Wild Goose (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 6/1
22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Island Bridge (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings bettingsites.co.uk Fast Paying Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 11/2
11 Oct 26 Chepstow Matty's Getaway (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Dragonbet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 9/2
11 Oct 26 Chepstow Connells Cross (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Dragonbet / Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Ebf Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 16/1
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Reallyntruthfully (IRE)J: Aamilah Aswat Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 4th 6/1J
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Grey Sands (IRE)J: Dougie Costello Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 5th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 4) · fastest on KTB Speed in 8 runs (won 3) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls's strike rate?
Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls has won 53 of 337 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls?
Tom Bellamy, with 170 runners since 2022 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (18.8%).
Is Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls in form?
In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 4 winners, a strike rate of 25%. That is above the baseline of 15.7% since 2022.
What is Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 337 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).