1:25 Perth
This Class 3 Beginners' Steeple Chase over two miles at Perth on good to soft ground brings together four high-class performers, all dropping in class. The KTB Fit Scores identify Kabral du Mathan as the clear top pick on 75, with Dream Shadow, Jabbar and Hold The Serve closely grouped between 57 and 60. Recent form is strong across the board, yet the lack of any established course form for the entire field adds an element of unknown to the contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With all four principals sharing a held-up run-style, the race is likely to develop into a patient waiting game, with efforts produced from off the pace in the latter stages. The key question is which horse can time its run most effectively in a race that may not be truly tested for speed until late on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kabral du Mathan KTB Selection75/100
Kabral du Mathan is a high-class performer who has won four of his eight starts and arrives here off the back of a solid second at Aintree. He drops back from three miles to a trip over which he has won twice from five attempts, and he boasts a strong record on good to soft ground that includes three wins from five starts. The Dan Skelton yard posts a 33% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.06, while Harry Skelton is even more potent here at 29% with an A/E of 1.00. Trainer and jockey combined show 1414/6382 (22%) with an A/E of 0.90. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he looks ideally placed for the anticipated tactical nature of this steadily-run race.
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2Dream Shadow60/100
Dream Shadow is another high-class performer boasting a strong recent record of four wins from his last six starts. He drops back to a trip he has won over before and possesses a solid record on good to soft ground with two wins from four starts and four places. Fergal O'Brien maintains a 25% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.1 from 174 runs, though this represents the horse's first appearance at the track. Jack Hogan has a 14% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.83 from 22 rides, and the trainer-jockey combination reads 52/339 (15%) with an A/E of 0.95. Like the selection he is usually held up, producing his effort late, which should suit the expected tactical shape.
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3Jabbar58/100
Jabbar is a high-class performer with solid recent form figures of 234-22 and two wins from eleven starts at this trip. He makes his first appearance at Perth today while remaining unproven on good to soft ground. Brian Hughes brings a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from an impressive 903 rides, which offers some compensation for the trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 342 runs overall and no Perth record. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he will be hoping the steady pace allows him to close effectively in the latter stages.
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4Hold The Serve57/100
Hold The Serve is a high-class performer who has won four of his five starts and arrives with strong course connections through his trainer. He drops back from three miles to two miles today having failed to win in one previous attempt at the shorter trip. Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen both operate at a high level at Perth, with respective strike rates of 30% (A/E 1.19) and 31% (A/E 1.08).
KTB verdict
Kabral du Mathan stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings the best combination of proven ability at the trip, a strong record on good to soft ground, and the powerful Perth record of both trainer and jockey. While all four runners are dropping in class and hold high-class form, the selection's recent Aintree second and four wins from eight starts give him the edge. Dream Shadow and Jabbar, both with solid recent efforts, represent the main dangers in a race that looks set to be decided by tactical positioning in the closing stages.
KTB Selection Kabral du Mathan
This is the narrative read of the 1:25 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Kabral du Mathan the KTB Selection ahead of the other high-class performers?
Kabral du Mathan tops the KTB Fit Scores on 75 and brings four wins from eight starts, a solid second at Aintree, two wins at the trip, and three wins from five starts on good to soft, allied to the excellent Perth records of Dan Skelton (33%) and Harry Skelton (29%).
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The pace shape lacks a leader with low confidence, making it likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses share the same run-style and how does it suit the race?
All four principals are held up, usually producing their effort late, which should suit the steadily-run, tactical race shape.
What are the Perth trainer and jockey records for the connections of Kabral du Mathan?
Dan Skelton has a 33% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.06 from 51 runs, while Harry Skelton has a 29% strike rate with an A/E of 1 from 58 rides.
Which horse is unproven on the prevailing ground?
Jabbar has no runs on good to soft ground and is therefore unproven on it.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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