1:55 Perth
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Perth over 2m47y on good to soft ground brings together a field of ten, several with placed form or light profiles that make the outcome far from straightforward. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Sea Eagle on 59, with Old Habits, Nikolavs Otto, Sears Crossing and Zebra Star all between 50 and 57, suggesting a competitive heat where course and trainer records at Perth will carry significant weight. Recent form is mixed and several runners remain lightly raced or unproven on the surface, while the lack of an obvious leader points to a race that will be decided by positioning and timing rather than sustained pace pressure.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape is expected to be steadily run and tactical, where being handy early will pay dividends. Most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether any horse can get into a forward position without using too much energy or whether the prominent runner can dictate matters. In a race likely to lack sustained galloping speed, the ability to quicken or pick up in the straight could prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sea Eagle KTB Selection59/100
Sea Eagle is a smart performer who showed useful form when runner-up on his return last time out. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow over this distance in two previous attempts, while his sole run on good to soft ground also failed to produce a win or place. Brian Hughes has a solid 16% strike rate at Perth from 903 rides and the horse carries an official rating of 118. Held up in his races, he usually produces his effort late. The combination of recent form figures of 26U-2 and the KTB Fit Score of 59 make him the selection in a race where being handy pays.
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2Old Habits57/100
Old Habits has shown promise with a win on good to soft at this trip from just two starts and was placed on debut before a poor second effort. The going looks ideal and he has already won over today's distance. Trainer Olly Murphy and jockey Sean Bowen both hold strong records at Perth, with the yard on 30% from 210 runs and the rider on 31% from 354 rides, though the small sample overall means this remains one to treat with caution. He is dropping in class and his recent form figures read 3/12-. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he carries a KTB Fit Score of 57.
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3Nikolavs Otto51/100
Nikolavs Otto is a newcomer from the Dan Skelton yard who has a solid pedigree and was bought for a useful sum at the sales. The yard has a strong record at Perth with a 33% strike rate from 51 runs while Harry Skelton is operating at 29% from 58 rides here. With no racecourse form to go on the picture remains speculative at this stage and he is by Walk In The Park, a sire with a 13% overall win rate. His KTB Fit Score stands at 51 and the trainer-jockey combination shows 22% from 6382 rides with an A/E of 0.90.
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4Sears Crossing51/100
Sears Crossing has been placed second on both starts to date including over this trip and at this track last time. Olly Murphy's 30% strike rate from 210 runs at Perth is a solid positive while Robert Dunne's 11% from 35 rides is more modest. Still only seven career runs so plenty of unknowns remain and he is unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 2- and the KTB Fit Score is 51. The trainer-jockey partnership shows 13% from 30 rides with an A/E of 0.88.
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5Zebra Star50/100
Zebra Star has a modest overall profile after 47 runs and was well held when sixth on its only previous visit to Perth. It has shown ability on good to soft ground with two wins from four starts, though it remains unproven at this exact trip. The trainer's 6% strike rate at the track from 387 runs is matched by a useful 10% record for the jockey from 39 rides and the yard-jockey line reads 9% from 141 rides with an A/E of 1.15. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, his recent form is simply 6 and the KTB Fit Score is 50.
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6Get Out of My Way50/100
Get Out of My Way is lightly raced with just two runs in the last year and overall career, so the form has to be read with caution. He showed ability when winning on good to soft at this trip on debut and has the yard's solid 25% strike rate at Perth behind him while Jack Hogan's 14% record at the track is respectable, though the small sample overall means this remains an unknown quantity. He is dropping in class, usually held up, and his recent form reads 12- with a KTB Fit Score of 50.
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7Jasper Glory49/100
Jasper Glory has shown placed form on both starts so far but remains very lightly raced with only one run in the last year. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of him. Trainer William Young Jnr has a modest 4% strike rate from 120 runs at Perth while jockey Conor Rabbitt holds an 11% strike rate from 61 rides here. His recent form is 3-2 and the KTB Fit Score is 49.
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8Oor Wish44/100
Oor Wish has shown ordinary form in modest races and was well held on return at this track last time. He drops back in trip having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at this distance. The yard and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here with the trainer on 6% from 441 runs and the rider on 7% from 119 rides. His recent form reads 4464-7 and the KTB Fit Score is 44.
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9Kershaw44/100
Kershaw showed useful ability when winning on debut over this trip and has since run creditably in stronger company. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Perth from 126 runs suggests this is no gimme, while Derek Fox is operating at a similar modest level here with his own 8% record from 392 rides. With only two career runs everything remains very much unexposed, his recent form is 2/41- and the KTB Fit Score is 44.
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10Miss Arabella38/100
Miss Arabella is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, landing the frame in two of her four attempts over 2m. She drops back in distance after her latest run over 2m4f and holds solid course connections through her stable. The trainer has only one run at Perth so that remains unproven while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate here from 140 rides. She is stepping up in class with an official rating of 88 and recent form of 26237/ alongside a KTB Fit Score of 38.
KTB verdict
Sea Eagle is the KTB Selection. He arrives with the highest Fit Score of 59 having shown useful form when runner-up on his return, and the booking of Brian Hughes, who holds a 16% strike rate at Perth from 903 rides, adds to his claims in a steadily-run affair where being handy pays. The selection's ability on the figures stands out despite the step up in trip and his modest record on good to soft. Main dangers are headed by Old Habits, who has already won over the trip on good to soft and benefits from the strong Perth records of Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen, along with the unexposed Nikolavs Otto from the Skelton team and the course-placed Sears Crossing. Zebra Star brings good-to-soft experience but his overall profile is more modest.
KTB Selection Sea Eagle
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Sea Eagle has the highest KTB Fit Score of 59.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
The race lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runner is by Walk In The Park and what is the sire's overall win rate?
Nikolavs Otto is by Walk In The Park, a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 6914 runners.
Which horse has course form at Perth and what is it?
Sears Crossing has course form at Perth, finishing second on his only visit, while Zebra Star finished sixth on his only visit and Oor Wish has two runs here finishing seventh and fourth.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Perth among the principals?
Dan Skelton has a 33% strike rate at Perth from 51 runs, with Olly Murphy on 30% from 210 runs.
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