1:45 Cheltenham
A competitive Class 2 novices' hurdle over two and three-quarter miles at Cheltenham on good to soft ground sees a field of six line up. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top four, headed by Kashchei on 67, with Newbrook Diamond, Road To Wembley and Woodstock Octo closely grouped behind on 63, 56 and 55 respectively. The two outsiders, Landsborough and Captain Connor, rate materially lower at 43 and 38, suggesting the race will revolve around the principals in what looks a genuinely-run contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, setting up a fair test. Newbrook Diamond is the most positive front-runner and should take them along, with Kashchei and Road To Wembley both prominent runners who will race handily on or close to the pace. Captain Connor and Landsborough are held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the key question is whether the prominent brigade can dictate matters up front or if the race will fall apart for those coming from off the pace in a strongly-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kashchei KTB Selection67/100
Kashchei is a high-class performer on his best days and brings a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last five starts. He has already shown he handles Cheltenham by finishing eighth here on his only visit, and the yard’s 16% strike rate at the track from 19 runs is in line with their record elsewhere. He steps up in trip again today having failed to win in one previous attempt at this distance and remains unproven on good to soft ground. Carl Millar takes the ride, though the jockey is still seeking his first Cheltenham winner from five rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, Kashchei is expected to be prominent in what should be a genuinely-run race.
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2Newbrook Diamond63/100
Newbrook Diamond is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins this spring. This will be his first run at Cheltenham and his first try at this longer trip, both of which pose fresh questions, while the yard's 10% strike rate here from 698 runs sits below their overall mark. He has been placed on his only run on good to soft ground so far. Harry Cobden is in the saddle, a jockey with a 12% strike rate at Cheltenham from 402 rides. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to set the tempo in a genuinely-run affair.
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3Road To Wembley56/100
Road To Wembley is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last five starts and an official rating of 123. The yard's 7% strike rate at Cheltenham from 138 runs sits below their 19% elsewhere while this is the horse's first run at the track. He steps up in trip today having never tried beyond 2m4f and is only placed once from one run on good to soft. Sean Bowen takes the mount, boasting a 9% strike rate at the course from 307 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent as the race unfolds.
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4Woodstock Octo55/100
Woodstock Octo is an unbeaten pointer making his rules debut. Half-brother to Bective Abbey, who won three of his nine runs, he comes from a family where the dam has had one other runner, a winner. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Cheltenham from 20 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, and Ben Jones has a 7% strike rate at the track from 95 rides. A course and distance winner who is proven on this going at this track, he brings the strongest Cheltenham-specific form in the field. His prominent run-style should see him race handily in a race that is set to be genuinely run.
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5Landsborough43/100
Landsborough has just one run to his name after finishing second on debut over much shorter. He now steps up markedly in trip for a Class 2 at Cheltenham, which asks a fresh and sizeable question. The yard’s 0% strike rate from 15 runs at the course adds to the caution required with such limited data.
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6Captain Connor38/100
Captain Connor is a fair handicapper who has been consistent without winning, placing on good to soft ground and showing steady form over trips around three miles. He drops back in distance today having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous run at this trip, while first-time headgear is now added. The yard's record at Cheltenham is based on too few runs to judge.
KTB verdict
Kashchei stands out as the KTB Selection. A high-class performer on his best days, he has a solid recent record featuring two wins, has already shown he can handle Cheltenham, and his prominent style should suit the expected pace. The yard’s strike rate at the track is respectable and he brings the highest KTB Fit score in the field. Newbrook Diamond, arriving in excellent order after two recent wins, and Road To Wembley, who has three wins from his last five starts, are the most obvious dangers, while Woodstock Octo’s unbeaten pointer record and course-and-distance prowess cannot be dismissed.
KTB Selection Kashchei
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Kashchei | 9/4 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Newbrook Diamond | 11/4 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Road To Wembley | 15/8 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Woodstock Octo | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Landsborough | 28/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Captain Connor | 100/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Cheltenham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cheltenham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cheltenham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cheltenham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its rules debut in this race?
Woodstock Octo is an unbeaten pointer making his rules debut.
How many previous runs has Kashchei had at Cheltenham?
Kashchei has ran 1 time here: 8th, no win or place.
Which runner is equipped with first-time headgear?
Captain Connor has first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Cheltenham among the principals?
Cian Collins has a 16% strike rate at Cheltenham (19 runs).
What is the family background for Woodstock Octo?
Half-brother to Bective Abbey (3 wins from 9 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.
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