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Jockey profile

Carl Millar

517 rides in the last 5 seasons · 316 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 9 days ago 98% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2022
41–517
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=517
132 (26%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=517 · 0.78 incl. margin
−93.78
£1 level stake
n=517 at SP · −18.1%
£812k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.5%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 100 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (44 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 517 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.6% 29.4% when favourite Gordon Elliott: 7.7% from 182 LTO winners: 13.6% Group/Graded: 11.1% Rides the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Down Royal (17.1%, n=41) and Punchestown (15%, n=40) — all clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.77). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.60 and +23.75 to a £1 stake over 104 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Gordon Elliott supplies 35% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (7.7%, A/E 0.82). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 4.4% over 135 rides, 3.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.62 across 99 rides (5.1% strike, −49.72 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the RYBO Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse (Mar 2024, £59,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7%−0.9
n=315 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −142.52
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
13.6%+5.7
n=44 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −25.15
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
9.6%+1.7
n=104 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +23.75
When favourite
29.4%
n=34 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −8.03
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.9%+0.0
n=508 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −91.78
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.7%−2.2
n=244 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −31.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+3.2
n=45 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +70.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Down Royal 17.1% vs 7.9% · n=41
With debutants 0% vs 7.9% · n=34
At Punchestown 15% vs 7.9% · n=40
On last-time-out winners 13.6% vs 7.9% · n=44
Over 1m5f – 2m 4.4% vs 7.9% · n=135
On Good to Soft going 5.1% vs 7.9% · n=99
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 355 29 8.2% −68.98
Chase 129 11 8.5% −12.80
NH Flat 24 1 4.2% −3.00
Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 174 14 8% +10.87
Good 158 15 9.5% −51.30
Good to Soft 99 5 5.1% −49.72
Heavy 85 7 8.2% −2.63
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 43 2 4.7% −1.00
Down Royal 41 7 17.1% +44.00
Punchestown 40 6 15% +31.70
Downpatrick 37 4 10.8% −13.75
Kilbeggan 32 3 9.4% −5.25
Limerick 28 1 3.6% −19.00
Navan 27 2 7.4% +2.00
Leopardstown 26 2 7.7% +8.50
Tramore 24 0 0% −24.00
Ballinrobe 23 0 0% −23.00
Sligo 22 2 9.1% −5.50
Wexford 22 1 4.5% −9.00
Clonmel 18 2 11.1% −13.63
Cork 17 2 11.8% −5.38
Thurles 15 1 6.7% −12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 47 5 10.6% +68.00
Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 4 6 1 16.7% −4.47
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 41 11 26.8% 1.01 −11.03
2nd–3rd fav 97 7 7.2% 0.51 −58.25
4th–6th fav 146 13 8.9% 1.17 −21.50
7th+ in betting 233 10 4.3% 1.48 −3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
83.5% completed · 484 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 129 77.5% 7 6 15 1 0
Hurdle 355 85.6% 7 5 38 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Fizzle Rock (IRE) 10 1 3 6 Oct 26
Politicise (IRE) 10 1 3 10 May 24
Must Meet Cecil (IRE) 8 2 3 5 Jun 26
Nells Choice (IRE) 8 0 1 3 Mar 25
Effernock Fizz (IRE) 8 1 2 12 May 24
Oogum Boogum (IRE) 7 1 4 4 Aug 26
Verbal Sparring (IRE) 7 2 5 3 Feb 26
Irish Blaze (IRE) 7 1 3 21 Dec 24
Maxxum (IRE) 6 2 3 2 Mar 26
Mercurial Sea (IRE) 5 0 0 18 Sep 26
Blue Reed (FR) 5 0 2 1 Jun 25
Media Naranja (IRE) 5 0 2 2 Feb 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 316 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1284145140811295
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardGordon Elliott
35% of all rides
7.7% SR · A/E 0.82
TrainerRWSR£1
Gordon Elliott 182 14 7.7% −62.43
Cian Collins 102 9 8.8% +4.53
Nigel Thomas Slevin 50 3 6% −6.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
41
Archived wins
5
Pattern / graded wins
£814k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 20 wins
Effernock Fizz (IRE) — RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Fairyhouse · Mar 2024 · Listed
£59,000
Maxxum (IRE) — Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) Leopardstown · Feb 2024 · Listed
£59,000
Jumping Jet (IRE) — Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase Downpatrick · Apr 2024
£29,500
Notable horses
Must Meet Cecil (IRE) Verbal Sparring (IRE) Maxxum (IRE) Staffordshire Knot (IRE) Politicise (IRE) Fizzle Rock (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mount Nelson (GB) 10.5% · 2–19
Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,277 runs since 2012 (538 horses).
Walk In The Park (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,024 runs since 2011 (703 horses).
Fame And Glory (GB) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,211 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Getaway (GER) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Ocovango (GB) 15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,009 runs since 2019 (307 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 196.
Laverock (IRE) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 11.6% of 527 runs since 2012 (59 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 19% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 241.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 522 · newest first

The latest 50 of 522 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 September 2021 to 26 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Missouri Snow (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 7/1
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Kashchei (GB)T: Cian Collins William Hill Extra Places Every Day Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 4th 9/2
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Fiveonefive (IRE)T: Cian Collins Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 10/1
18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Stay Hopeful (IRE)T: Cian Collins Celebrating 40 Years Of Vickers Bookmakers Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 7/4F
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Chantilly Wings (IRE)T: Cian Collins William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 6th 7/2
10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Undertheinfluence (IRE)T: Noel C. Kelly Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 11th 80/1
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Poet's Creek (IRE)T: D M Christie Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 6 ran 5th 150/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Tingarran Express (IRE)T: Miss Denise Marie O'Shea Ardmore Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 9 ran 5th 6/1
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Fizzle Rock (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin Ryans Cleaning Handicap Steeplechase18f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran F 50/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) No Mon No Fun (IRE)T: Darren Collins Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 6th 28/1
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Fizzle Rock (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Steeplechase18f · Good · 12 ran 9th 33/1
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Kashchei (GB)T: Cian Collins Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle21.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 7/1
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Mercurial Sea (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I)18f · Good · 12 ran 5th 11/4F
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) So Golden (GB)T: Noel C. Kelly T-Met Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 15 ran 11th 50/1
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Affinity Rock (IRE)T: Cian Collins P&D Lydon Mares Beginners Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 9 ran 4th 11/4
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Brandt (IRE)T: Cian Collins BOYLE Sports Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 25/1
04 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Fizzle Rock (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin Midland Veterinary Beginners Steeplechase20.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran UR 125/1
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) The Bossman About (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin SIS Supporting Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 11th 25/1
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Tingarran Express (IRE)T: Miss Denise Marie O'Shea John Fairbrother Memorial Mares Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 6/1
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Mercurial Sea (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase22f · Good · 13 ran 8th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Carl Millar's strike rate?
Carl Millar has won 41 of 517 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Carl Millar do best at?
Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 41 rides (17.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Carl Millar ride most for?
Gordon Elliott, with 182 rides since 2022 — 35% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (7.7%).
Is Carl Millar in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Carl Millar's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 517 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).