2:30 Worcester
This Class 4 fillies' juvenile maiden hurdle at Worcester over two miles on good to soft ground features a small but open-looking field of five. The KTB Fit ratings suggest a fairly modest bunch overall, headed by Song of The Stars on 60 with the remainder tightly grouped between 51 and 36. With several runners unproven on the surface and lightly raced, the race carries plenty of unknowns despite the small turnout.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Most of the field are inclined to be held up or race in mid-division, so the key question is which horse can produce the most effective late effort once the tempo lifts in the straight. Early positioning may prove decisive given the modest pace anticipated.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Song of The Stars KTB Selection60/100
Song of The Stars arrives with the strongest recent evidence, having finished second on both starts including over this trip last time. She has already shown placed form at Worcester without winning, fitting the yard's modest 9% strike rate at the track from 11 runs. Paul O'Brien's 13% record at Worcester sits in line with his overall figure, though the combination remains unproven on good to soft ground. Held up in her races, she usually produces her effort late and will look to strike from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair. Overall she holds the best KTB Fit rating in the field at 60 and is taken to build on her placed efforts.
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2Red Moon51/100
Red Moon remains very lightly raced with just two runs behind her and no official rating as yet. The yard posts a 15% strike rate at Worcester from 33 runs, which is in line with their record at other courses, while Gavin Sheehan takes the ride. Stepping up markedly in trip poses a fresh question and the family record is modest, as the dam has produced no winners from three previous runners. Unproven on good to soft ground, she has no course form to call upon. At a KTB Fit rating of 51 she is the closest pursuer to the selection but carries obvious risks.
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3Miss Moffett37/100
Miss Moffett showed very little when sixth of seven on her sole start over this course and trip. Half-sister to the smart chaser Nube Negra, she is bred to do better as she matures and the family line is positive with the dam having produced four other runners including three winners. Dan Skelton's 18% strike rate at Worcester from 441 runs is a clear plus, though apprentice Harry Atkins has limited data at the track with an 8% record from 12 rides. Unproven on good to soft, she remains hard to gauge given the small sample. Rated 37 on KTB Fit, she represents an each-way possibility if the pedigree begins to tell.
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4Guildhall Graduate37/100
Guildhall Graduate has shown steady but limited ability across three starts, with no better than fourth and already tried over this trip without success. Unproven on good to soft ground and with the trainer operating at a 4% strike rate at Worcester from 68 runs, he looks up against it at a KTB Fit of 37.
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5Earth Maid36/100
Earth Maid showed little when fifth of 11 on debut over this course and trip on good ground. The yard's 18% strike rate at Worcester from 441 runs is solid, but the jockey is on a 2% record here from 42 rides; with only one run and low data confidence she remains very much an unknown at a KTB Fit of 36.
KTB verdict
Song of The Stars stands out with the highest KTB Fit rating and the clearest placed form in the book, having finished second twice including over this trip. Her course experience at Worcester adds to the case, and in a race that looks likely to be run at a steady gallop her late effort could be well suited. The main dangers are Red Moon, who has scope as a lightly raced sort despite the trip increase, and Miss Moffett, whose pedigree offers hope that she can improve markedly on her debut effort.
KTB Selection Song of The Stars
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Song of The Stars | 4/11 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Red Moon | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Miss Moffett | 20/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Guildhall Graduate | 20/1 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Earth Maid | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form over the course and distance?
Song of The Stars, who has finished second on both starts including over this trip last time and has been placed on her one run at Worcester.
What is the family background for Red Moon according to KTB's archive?
The dam has had three other runners, none of them a winner.
How does Miss Moffett's pedigree connect to high-class performers?
She is a half-sister to Nube Negra, a Grade 2 winner with seven wins from 27 runs, and the dam has had four other runners of which three were winners.
Why might positioning be important in this race?
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners tending to be held up or race in mid-division.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Worcester in this field?
Dan Skelton with an 18% strike rate from 441 runs.
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