What is Tristan Durrell's strike rate?

Tristan Durrell has won 105 of 840 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tristan Durrell do best at?

Fakenham by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 rides (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tristan Durrell ride most for?

Dan Skelton, with 731 rides since 2022 — 87% of the total. That pairing has won 100 (13.7%).

Is Tristan Durrell in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 9.1%. That is below the baseline of 12.5% since 2022.

What is Tristan Durrell's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 838 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tristan Durrell

840 rides in the last 5 seasons · 429 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

105–840

Wins / Runs

12.5%

Strike rate

n=840

236 (28%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=838 · 0.92 incl. margin

−130.35

£1 level stake

n=840 at SP · −15.5%

£1.92m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 170 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 28% (90 rides). Rides mostly for Dan Skelton — 87% of rides in the window. The rider is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 840 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 46.3% when favourite Dan Skelton: 13.7% from 731 LTO winners: 27.8% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fakenham (23.3%, n=30), clear of the rider's 12.5% baseline. It is weakest at Worcester (2.3% over 44 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 27.8% (n=90, Fair A/E 1.46), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.3% (n=114, Fair A/E 0.98). Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 2 from 22 rides in the last 14 days (9.1%, 3.4pts below the 12.5% baseline). Dan Skelton supplies 87% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.7%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury (Nov 2025, £142,375).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11%−1.5

n=420 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −136.48

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

27.8%+15.3

n=90 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +30.58

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.6%−2.9

n=198 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −53.53

When favourite

46.3%

n=80 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +7.48

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.9%−0.6

n=555 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −85.41

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−7.2

n=114 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −23.33

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10%−2.5

n=40 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +39.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 27.8% vs 12.5% · n=90

At Worcester 2.3% vs 12.5% · n=44

At Fakenham 23.3% vs 12.5% · n=30

With C&D winners 20% vs 12.5% · n=40

At Ludlow 5.6% vs 12.5% · n=36

At Chepstow 5.7% vs 12.5% · n=35

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 509 57 11.2% −152.04

Chase 253 40 15.8% +50.25

NH Flat 77 8 10.4% −27.56

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 309 36 11.7% −90.63

Good to Soft 284 36 12.7% +9.08

Soft 185 26 14.1% −35.38

Heavy 53 5 9.4% −19.80

Good to Firm 9 2 22.2% +6.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Warwick 54 8 14.8% +1.34

Uttoxeter 47 3 6.4% −23.75

Worcester 44 1 2.3% −38.00

Ludlow 36 2 5.6% −28.75

Chepstow 35 2 5.7% −30.45

Market Rasen 33 3 9.1% −19.59

Doncaster 32 3 9.4% −22.13

Cheltenham 31 2 6.5% −7.50

Fakenham 30 7 23.3% −0.81

Southwell 29 3 10.3% −15.87

Plumpton 28 1 3.6% −23.00

Fontwell 28 5 17.9% +3.37

Wetherby 27 7 25.9% +30.91

Huntingdon 27 4 14.8% −11.62

Kempton 26 3 11.5% +16.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 313 38 12.1% −130.14

Class 5 209 23 11% −96.49

Class 3 134 23 17.2% +18.08

Class 2 106 12 11.3% +31.83

Class 1 72 7 9.7% +47.50

Class 6 6 2 33.3% −1.13

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 91 41 45.1% 1.24 +11.60

2nd–3rd fav 194 35 18% 1.01 −33.45

4th–6th fav 302 19 6.3% 0.80 −104.50

7th+ in betting 253 10 4% 1.37 −4.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.6% completed · 762 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 253 84.2% 3 3 32 2 0

Hurdle 509 86.2% 6 3 59 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Sacre Coeur (FR) 18 3 8 22 Mar 25

Go Steady (GB) 10 2 5 6 Jan 24

West To The Bridge (IRE) 9 2 2 9 Sep 25

Delgany Deadline (GB) 8 1 4 19 Apr 26

Shakeyatailfeather (IRE) 8 1 2 14 Mar 26

Calico (GER) 8 1 4 11 Mar 26

Flegmatik (FR) 8 1 3 1 Apr 25

Top Guy (IRE) 7 2 3 27 Oct 26

Knickerbockerglory (IRE) 7 1 1 13 May 26

Snipe (IRE) 7 0 2 22 Nov 25

Diamond Dealer (IRE) 6 3 4 24 Oct 26

Phineas Bunce (IRE) 6 0 2 18 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 429 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 22 9.1% · −3.4pts vs baseline

Last 14 days9.1%

5-season base12.5%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

19913191210019514912

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDan Skelton

87% of all rides
13.7% SR · A/E 1.13

TrainerRWSR£1

Dan Skelton 731 100 13.7% −48.90

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

111

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.96m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 34 wins

Panic Attack (IRE) — Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Newbury · Nov 2025 · Class 1

£142,375

Mirabad (FR) — Hallgarten & Novum Wines Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2026 · Grade 1

£67,724

Listentoyourheart (IRE) — Fitzdares New Year's Day Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Windsor · Jan 2026 · Class 2

£52,030

Notable horses

Sacre Coeur (FR) Not That Fuisse (FR) Diamond Dealer (IRE) William Of York (GB) Go Steady (GB) West To The Bridge (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 14% · 7–50

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,063 runs since 2011 (709 horses).

Blue Bresil (FR) 9.4% · 3–32

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,551 runs since 2013 (464 horses).

Getaway (GER) 9.4% · 3–32

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,010 runs since 2016 (1,032 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Kayf Tara (GB) 17.9% · 5–28

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,762 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,893 runs since 2013 (686 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Doyen (IRE) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,385 runs since 2009 (606 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 920 · newest first

The latest 50 of 920 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 November 2018 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Moorland Belle (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Download The Matchbook App Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 8th 33/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Sweet Nightingale (GB)T: Polly Gundry Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 16/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell The Mad Poet (IRE)T: Dan Skelton KSR Lighting Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 7/2

05 Nov 26 Newcastle That Guy (FR)T: Dan Skelton attheraces.com/marketmovers "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 6th 3/1

05 Nov 26 Newcastle Brace For Landing (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/4

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Dare Me (GB)T: Dan Skelton Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 11th 25/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Jacksbar (GB)T: Dan Skelton Floyds Turfcare & Weed Solutions Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran PU 28/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Gettothebar (GB)T: Dan Skelton Free Tips On attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 100/1

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Slievehill (IRE)T: D. J. Jeffreys Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 10th 20/1

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Moment Of Light (GB)T: Dan Skelton Green Howards Museum Richmond Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 2/9F

01 Nov 26 Worcester Big John Ollie (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Copybet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 11th 18/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Earth Maid (GB)T: Dan Skelton Pj Nicholls Kgm Korea Genuinely Made Fillies' Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 22/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Kartoon And Co (FR)T: Dan Skelton Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 12/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Dalston Lad (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Fbc Manby Bowdler 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Broomfield Aderra (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 8th 16/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester In The Age (FR)T: Dan Skelton Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 5th 16/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Tales Of Bravery (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 11/4

31 Oct 26 Ayr The Skecher (FR)T: Dan Skelton Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 10/11F

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Another Vega (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 11th 50/1

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Krak (FR)T: Dan Skelton Christmas Parties 2026 At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 5th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 13 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 2) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tristan Durrell's strike rate?: Tristan Durrell has won 105 of 840 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tristan Durrell do best at?: Fakenham by strike rate: 7 wins from 30 rides (23.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tristan Durrell ride most for?: Dan Skelton, with 731 rides since 2022 — 87% of the total. That pairing has won 100 (13.7%).
Is Tristan Durrell in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 9.1%. That is below the baseline of 12.5% since 2022.
What is Tristan Durrell's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 838 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.