2:47 Epsom
This Class 3 novice stakes over 1m2f17y at Epsom features a small field of six on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 43, reflecting a race where experience is limited and several runners arrive with modest form or no racecourse exposure at all. The overall picture is one of limited depth, with the KTB numbers pointing to a contest that could hinge on how the lightly raced types handle the unique demands of the track and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with low confidence, suggesting one horse could secure an uncontested lead that proves difficult for closers to overcome. Blue Noon is the clear front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race prominently, while the two held-up types, Maestro Del Mar and Seacole, will be produced late. The key question is whether the likely easy lead can be sustained around Epsom or if the race will fall to something coming from off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Paraone KTB Selection53/100
Paraone has shown very little in two starts so far and arrives with a bare 97 form line. The drop back from 1m3½f to 1m2f poses a fresh question while the draw in stall 1 could prove either help or hindrance at Epsom. Trainer Heather Main has a solid 17% strike rate from 24 runs here yet this remains a very lightly raced colt with low-confidence data overall. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3/33 (9%) with an A/E of 0.93 and +£5.50 LSP. George Wood takes the mount and the colt is completely unproven on good ground with no previous course form.
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2Maestro Del Mar52/100
Maestro Del Mar is a fair performer with progressive recent form including a placed effort last time out. He drops back in trip to 1m2f today which asks a fresh question as his only prior run at 1m4f was respectable. The yard has only one run at Epsom so far. Billy Loughnane is in the saddle with a 14% strike rate at the track from 35 rides and an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has been placed once from one run on good ground and holds a KTB Fit Score of 52.
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3Rowlf44/100
Rowlf is a 3-year-old newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background. William Haggas has a modest 11% strike-rate at Epsom from 151 runs. Cieren Fallon takes the ride and the trainer-jockey partnership reads 220/969 (23%) with an A/E of 0.95 and +£45.45 LSP. By Golden Horn, he has a 14% overall win rate attached to that sire from 3863 runners and carries a KTB Fit Score of 44 with no course win on record.
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4Blue Noon44/100
Blue Noon is a modest performer with a string of placed efforts but no win in eight starts. He has been competitive on good ground and at this trip without ever looking the strongest finisher. First run at Epsom and first-time headgear add unknowns while the yard's modest strike rate here offers no particular edge. The Richard Hannon yard posts 11% at Epsom from 202 runs with an A/E of 0.76. Sean Levey is aboard with a 7% strike rate at the track from 85 rides and an A/E of 0.57. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he steps up in class with a KTB Fit Score of 44.
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5Seacole44/100
Seacole has shown steady placed form in four of his five starts yet remains a modest performer on ratings. He drops back from 1m3½f to a trip he has already tried twice without success, which poses a fresh question at this level. The Ralph Beckett yard posts an 18% strike rate at Epsom from a big sample while Rossa Ryan is aboard. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has two runs on good without a win or place and holds a KTB Fit Score of 44.
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6Red Red43/100
Red Red is a first-time runner from the Moore yard. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike-rate at Epsom from 62 runs. With low data confidence and no racecourse form, the assessment rests entirely on sales background and pedigree. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/28 (7%) with an A/E of 0.56 and -£17.75 LSP. Hector Crouch takes the ride and the colt carries a KTB Fit Score of 43 with no course win on record.
KTB verdict
Paraone is the KTB Selection. While he has shown very little in two starts and arrives with a bare 97 form line, the drop in trip, the draw in stall one and Heather Main's solid record at Epsom give him the nod in a race short on established quality. The main dangers are Maestro Del Mar, who brings the strongest recent placed form and a progressive profile, and the two Haggas and Hannon 3-year-olds if their pedigree and placed efforts translate on debut or in first-time headgear. Blue Noon's likely uncontested lead could also make him hard to peg back if the pace shape plays out as anticipated.
KTB Selection Paraone
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Blue Noon tends to make the running or race on the pace and the pace shape is that of a lone leader.
How many runs has William Haggas had at Epsom?
William Haggas has had 151 runs at Epsom with an 11% strike rate and A/E 0.58.
What is the trainer strike rate at Epsom for Ralph Beckett?
Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate at Epsom from 245 runs with an A/E of 1.05.
Which runners are held up types?
Maestro Del Mar and Seacole are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Has any horse in the field won on good ground?
No horse has a win on good ground; Maestro Del Mar and Blue Noon have been competitive or placed on the surface without winning.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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