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Trainer profile

Heather Main

801 runners in the last 5 seasons · 76 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 95% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2022
82–801
Wins / Runs
10.2%
Strike rate
n=801
214 (27%)
Placed
1.06
Fair A/E
n=799 · 0.91 incl. margin
−9.90
£1 level stake
n=801 at SP · −1.2%
£1.24m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 160 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (33 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 801 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Jan 34.8% when favourite Jack Mitchell: 15.7% from 83 Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −60.25 to a £1 stake over 144 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jack Mitchell rides 10% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.7% vs 10.2%, A/E 1.27) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (25.7%, n=35) and off a 8-14-day break (17.8%, n=118). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 2.6% over 76 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Island Brave (IRE) — 11 wins from 56 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.6%−4.6
n=144 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −60.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.2
n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.7%−7.5
n=37 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −29.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.1%+1.9
n=33 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −19.08
When favourite
34.8%
n=69 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +2.10
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.2%−3.0
n=194 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −70.76
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 25.7% vs 10.2% · n=35
On last-time-out winners 20% vs 10.2% · n=80
With Billy Loughnane 21.6% vs 10.2% · n=37
With debutants 0% vs 10.2% · n=48
Off a 8-14-day break 17.8% vs 10.2% · n=118
Over 1m5f – 2m 2.6% vs 10.2% · n=76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 764 76 9.9% −13.73
Chase 25 6 24% +15.83
Hurdle 6 0 0% −6.00
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 301 35 11.6% −52.72
Good 189 17 9% +140.25
Good to Firm 124 13 10.5% −23.26
Good to Soft 90 6 6.7% −50.62
Soft 72 10 13.9% −21.55
Heavy 21 0 0% −21.00
Firm 4 1 25% +19.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 106 17 16% +14.18
Kempton (AW) 102 12 11.8% −3.59
Newbury 57 5 8.8% +137.00
Windsor 55 3 5.5% +15.50
Goodwood 38 4 10.5% −8.00
Lingfield (AW) 36 2 5.6% −22.25
Newcastle (AW) 30 1 3.3% −24.50
Chepstow 30 5 16.7% −9.21
Ascot 27 2 7.4% −13.50
Southwell (AW) 25 3 12% −14.56
Newmarket 23 2 8.7% +4.50
Bath 23 2 8.7% +3.50
Epsom 22 4 18.2% −0.88
Haydock 21 3 14.3% −0.67
Salisbury 21 0 0% −21.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 286 27 9.4% −51.67
Class 4 209 20 9.6% +156.50
Class 6 132 21 15.9% −41.56
Class 3 86 8 9.3% −27.75
Class 2 81 6 7.4% −38.42
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 80 26 32.5% 1.12 +1.10
2nd–3rd fav 163 30 18.4% 1.21 +2.50
4th–6th fav 263 18 6.8% 0.91 −60.50
7th+ in betting 295 8 2.7% 0.87 +47.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mister Bluebird (GB) 48 6 20 23 Sep 26
English Spirit (GB) 38 5 15 30 May 25
Mostawaa (GB) 34 4 13 21 Jan 26
Ash Wednesday (GB) 27 6 11 2 Oct 26
Believe You Me (IRE) 27 4 7 31 Oct 25
Island Bandit (IRE) 27 5 8 23 Jun 25
Tiger Tulip (GB) 26 3 7 14 Sep 26
Captain Haddock (IRE)from Harry Dunlop 24 0 7 21 Oct 24
Zoulu Chief (GB) 23 4 8 2 Oct 26
Numitor (GB) 23 6 9 4 May 26
Eazy On The Eye (GB) 22 3 9 27 Sep 26
Zoulu Warrior (IRE) 20 3 6 23 Sep 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 76 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard; 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
20018671011118111613
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJack Mitchell
10% of all rides
15.7% SR · A/E 1.27
RiderRWSR£1
Jack Mitchell 83 13 15.7% +44.95
Gina Mangan 52 6 11.5% +28.33
Joshua Bryan 41 6 14.6% +4.25
Billy Loughnane 37 8 21.6% −2.75
Hollie Doyle 34 5 14.7% +1.50
Cieren Fallon 31 6 19.4% −8.43
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
207
Archived wins
£2.23m
Prize money
2025
Best season · 23 wins
Numitor (GB) — Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Handicap Chase Finale Haydock · Mar 2024 · Class 2
£52,030
Island Brave (IRE) — Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Haydock · Sep 2022 · Class 2
£51,540
Zoulu Chief (GB) — Sky Bet Nursery York · Aug 2023 · Class 2
£51,540
Notable horses
Island Brave (IRE) Marshal Dan (IRE) Numitor (GB) Mister Bluebird (GB) Mostawaa (GB) Song of The Isles (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Outstrip (GB) 15.2% · 15–99
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,273 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.
Make Believe (GB) 6.6% · 4–61
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,597 runs since 2008 (297 horses).
Zoustar (AUS) 15.7% · 8–51
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,736 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.3% from 328. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.
Zarak (FR) 17.4% · 8–46
Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,965 runs since 2008 (326 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 363. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 21.1% from 242. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 201.
Iffraaj (GB) 7.5% · 3–40
Progeny have won 10.6% of 13,950 runs since 2008 (1,089 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.6% from 489.
Poet's Voice (GB) 10.5% · 4–38
Progeny have won 10.1% of 6,038 runs since 2008 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 263. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,032 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,032 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2009 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Bath Squiffy (IRE)J: Sean Levey Elite Racing Club Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 16/1
19 Oct 26 Bath Paraone (GB)J: Miss Amy Milburn Sw Hire Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 17f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 80/1
16 Oct 26 Haydock Woolisle (GB)J: Hector Crouch Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 8th 14/1
12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Ortenzian Twilight (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Juddmonte EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 100/1
11 Oct 26 Goodwood Angel Childe (GB)J: Jack Dace Virgin Bet / British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 125/1
02 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ash Wednesday (GB)J: Finley Marsh Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 20/1
02 Oct 26 Ascot Zoulu Chief (GB)J: Mr Henry Main Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Male Amateur Riders)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 18th 12/1
30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Squiffy (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 6th 16/1
30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Montgomery Bell (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Stakes (Div II) (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 300/1
27 Sep 26 Epsom Eazy On The Eye (GB)J: George Wood Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 1st 7/2J
27 Sep 26 Epsom Paraone (GB)J: George Wood Hunt Family Fund Novice Stakes (Sponsored By Betfred) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 6 ran 5th 500/1
25 Sep 26 Newmarket Clink (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Betway Bet The Responsible Way British Ebf "confined" Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only Which Have Run No More Than Twice)Class 3 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 13th 125/1
25 Sep 26 Haydock Ortenzian Twilight (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Pmj Capital Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 100/1
24 Sep 26 Newmarket Epistle (GB)J: George Wood Plantation Stud British EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)Class 3 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 5th 150/1
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Zoulu Warrior (IRE)J: Finley Marsh Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 11th 25/1
23 Sep 26 Goodwood Mister Bluebird (GB)J: Jack Dace Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 11th 16/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Prodigal Son (GB)J: Mr Henry Main Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire (Class 4 Handicap) (Special Rider Conditions)Class 4 · 9f · Good · 14 ran 1st 22/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Golden Island (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Turners Of Soham Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 7th 100/1
18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ash Wednesday (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Pertemps Network Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 10/1
18 Sep 26 Newbury Angel Childe (GB)J: Finley Marsh Kennet Valley Syndicates Nick Robinson EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 11th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Heather Main's strike rate?
Heather Main has won 82 of 801 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Heather Main do best at?
Chepstow by strike rate: 5 wins from 30 runners (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Heather Main?
Jack Mitchell, with 83 runners since 2022 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (15.7%).
Is Heather Main in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Heather Main's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 799 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).