3:40 Warwick
This Class 3 Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow Handicap Steeple Chase over 3m1f100y at Warwick on good to firm ground brings together just four runners, all of whom carry strong recent form yet share similar held-up run-styles in a race that lacks an obvious leader. The KTB Fit Scores highlight a clear top pick on 71 while the other three sit tightly grouped between 60 and 61, underlining a competitive but tactically nuanced affair. With the yard and jockey combination at Warwick also factored in, the numbers point towards a race that will be decided by timing and stamina rather than early speed.
How the race shapes up
Given the pace shape that lacks a leader and the fact that all four principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical contest. Being handy on the inner or timing a run from off the pace will be key, as there is unlikely to be any strong gallop to play into. The central question is whether the extra trip and unproven ground for several runners will expose stamina limitations before the held-up brigade can deliver.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ki Woo KTB Selection71/100
Ki Woo arrives with the highest KTB Fit Score of 71 and is taken as the selection. A high-class performer, he boasts strong recent form with two wins from his last four starts and has already shown he stays this trip having won over it at the first attempt. Dropping in class looks a positive move and the yard’s 19% strike rate at Warwick from 42 runs adds further confidence. Jack Tudor takes the ride with a 16% strike rate at the track from 86 rides. Held up in his races, he will be produced late, though he remains unproven on good to firm ground and has no previous course form on record.
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2Fever Dream61/100
Fever Dream is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 61 and brings smart form to the table. He won on his only previous visit to Warwick, a clear course read in his favour, and has a solid record on good to firm with one win from three starts. The yard’s 14% strike rate at the track from 116 runs is respectable and the trainer-jockey combination shows a positive 23% strike rate together. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops back from 3m6f to this untried 3m1f trip, which poses a fresh question about his ideal distance.
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3Snipe60/100
Snipe carries a KTB Fit Score of 60 and is another high-class performer on his day. His recent form of 416-24 includes two solid placed efforts this season and he has shown up well in both runs at Warwick, finishing fourth and third without winning. Dropping in class is a plus and the yard boasts a 21% strike rate at the track from 697 runs, with Harry Skelton’s 23% strike rate from 562 rides at Warwick adding further strength. Usually held up with a high degree of confidence in that run-style, he steps up in trip having won over this distance before, though he remains unproven on good to firm ground.
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4Dunkerque60/100
Dunkerque is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 60 and is a high-class performer boasting a strong recent record of 111212 that includes multiple wins. He steps up to 3m1f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of his stamina, though he has won on good to firm from two starts. The yard’s 9% strike rate at Warwick from 105 runs is modest and this is his debut at the course.
KTB verdict
Ki Woo stands out with the highest KTB Fit Score and is taken as the selection. His recent wins, proven stamina at the trip and the yard’s solid record at Warwick give him the most convincing profile in a race where being produced at the right time from off the pace will matter. Fever Dream’s course win and good-to-firm form make him a serious danger, while Snipe’s placed efforts at the track and previous success at the distance cannot be ignored. Dunkerque’s progressive recent record adds depth but the new trip remains an unknown.
KTB Selection Ki Woo
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Warwick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Warwick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Warwick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today’s distance?
Both Ki Woo and Snipe have won over this distance before.
How many of these runners are proven on good to firm ground?
Only Fever Dream and Dunkerque have winning form on good to firm; Ki Woo and Snipe remain unproven.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Warwick?
Dan Skelton has a 21% strike rate at Warwick from 697 runs.
What run-style do all four horses share?
All four are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Has any horse won at this course before?
Only Fever Dream has won at Warwick, on his only previous visit.
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