3:47 Musselburgh
This Class 3 British Stallion Stud EBF Fillies' Handicap over 7f15y at Musselburgh on good to soft ground features a compact but competitive field of seven. The KTB Fit scores point to a solid top four, headed by Aspiral on 66, with the next three clustered between 60 and 57, while the remaining trio sit in the mid-40s. Dropping in class looks a positive for three of the principals, though several runners remain unproven on the surface or have modest course records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner will enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Samra Green is the most likely to take up that role from stall 1, given her front-running style with medium confidence, while Carnival of Light may track prominently from draw 4. The majority of the field, including the selection Aspiral and the other three principals, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, so the key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate matters or if the closers will be able to reel her in on this good to soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Aspiral KTB Selection66/100
Aspiral is a fair performer who has won two of her three starts at this trip, including a success on good to soft ground. She showed useful form last season, though she was well beaten on her return at this track last month. Dropping in class looks a positive, and the selection has the benefit of a trainer with a 17% strike rate at Musselburgh from 420 runs and a jockey operating at 23% from 26 rides at the venue. Pierre-Louis Jamin teams up with a yard that has produced a trainer and jockey record of 91/509 (18%) with an A/E of 1.08 and +£30.50 LSP. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she is drawn in stall 6 and has an official rating of 84.
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2Carnival of Light60/100
Carnival of Light is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from four attempts and showed useful form when landing back-to-back races earlier this season. The recent string of modest efforts in her form figures points to a lull, though the handicapper has eased the burden accordingly with an official rating of 83. She usually races handily, on or close to the lead, though that assessment comes with limited evidence and low confidence. Trainer Charlie Johnston holds a 15% strike rate at Musselburgh from 155 runs while Sam James is operating at 21% from 250 rides at the track. She has had just one run on good to soft, without a win or place, and has no course form on record.
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3Samra Green58/100
Samra Green is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful placed form when second over course and distance on her most recent start. She has already won once at today's trip from three attempts, is dropping in class, and is drawn well in stall 1. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Musselburgh from 420 runs while the jockey is operating at 22% from 111 rides at the venue, and they combine with a trainer and jockey record of 407/2544 (16%) with an A/E of 0.92 and -£384.20 LSP. She tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. There are no runs on good to soft so far, leaving her unproven on the ground, though she has placed once from one run at the course.
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4Brazilian Rose57/100
Brazilian Rose is a fair handicapper who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts in her recent form figures. She has run just once at Musselburgh, finishing fifth without placing, and once on good to soft ground, again without a win or place. Today marks a step back up to a trip at which she has won twice from 20 starts, and she is dropping in class from an official rating of 88. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she is drawn in stall 2. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Musselburgh from 244 runs while the jockey is 12% from 610 rides at the track, and they combine with a trainer and jockey record of 2/25 (8%) with an A/E of 0.95 and -£9.67 LSP.
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5Ice Sovereigns48/100
Ice Sovereigns is a fair performer who won twice over this trip as a 2-year-old but has failed to fire in two starts this season. Dropping back from a mile looks a plus on paper yet he was well held over this course and distance on his only visit here, and he steps up in class from an official rating of 82. The Fahey yard has a modest 5% strike-rate at Musselburgh from 22 runs while Shane Gray fares better with a 13% record from 227 rides; he is usually held up with high confidence and remains unproven on good to soft.
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6Homestrait46/100
Homestrait is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year, including a win over this trip and a victory from three runs at Musselburgh. He has placed both starts on good to soft ground without winning, and his recent efforts include a solid third last time out from an official rating of 79. Stepping up in class, the trainer holds an 11% strike rate here from 727 runs while the jockey matches that figure from 190 rides; he is usually held up with high confidence and has won once from three runs at the course.
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7Dandy Magic45/100
Dandy Magic is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 313245. She has only one previous run at Musselburgh, finishing tenth, and steps up in trip today having failed to place in four previous attempts at 7f from an official rating of 77. Stepping up in class, the trainer has a solid 10% strike rate here from 2397 runs while the jockey is operating at 13% from 933 rides; she is usually held up with high confidence and has won once from three starts on good to soft.
KTB verdict
Aspiral looks the one to beat as the KTB selection. She is a fair performer with proven ability at this trip, including a win on good to soft, and benefits from dropping in class along with strong trainer and jockey records at the track. The uncontested lead should make it hard for closers, yet her late kick could be well suited if the pace holds up. The main dangers are Carnival of Light, who showed useful form earlier this season and may track the leader, and Samra Green, who is well drawn, has course and distance placed form, and is likely to set the fractions. Brazilian Rose cannot be entirely dismissed despite her modest recent efforts given the drop in class and return to a preferred distance.
KTB Selection Aspiral
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Musselburgh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Musselburgh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Musselburgh results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Musselburgh racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Samra Green, given her front-running style with medium confidence and draw in stall 1.
How many of the principals are dropping in class?
Three of the four principals are dropping in class.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Samra Green, Ice Sovereigns, and Carnival of Light have no wins or places on good to soft, with Samra Green and Ice Sovereigns having no runs on the surface.
Who has the strongest combined trainer and jockey record at Musselburgh among the principals?
Aspiral's trainer and jockey combination shows 91/509 (18%) with an A/E of 1.08 and +£30.50 LSP.
Which horse has won at Musselburgh previously?
Homestrait has won here from three runs at the course.
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