What is Charlie Johnston's strike rate?

Charlie Johnston has won 516 of 4,196 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Charlie Johnston do best at?

Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 39 wins from 212 runners (18.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Charlie Johnston?

Joe Fanning, with 958 runners since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (13.5%).

Is Charlie Johnston in form?

In the last 14 days: 30 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 12.3% since 2022.

What is Charlie Johnston's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 4,161 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Charlie Johnston

4,196 runners in the last 5 seasons · 460 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 4.3% of 921 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 28 Oct 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2022

516–4,196

Wins / Runs

12.3%

Strike rate

n=4,196

1,276 (30%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=4,161 · 0.84 incl. margin

−918.37

£1 level stake

n=4,195 at SP · −21.9%

£9.85m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 840 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). New recruits from other yards win at 17% first time out (124 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,196 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 32.7% when favourite Joe Fanning: 13.5% from 958 New recruits: 16.9% Claiming riders: 14.6% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chelmsford City (AW) (18.4%, n=212), clear of the yard's 12.3% baseline. It is weakest at York (3.2% over 95 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 16.9% (n=124, Fair A/E 1.26), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.6% (n=184, Fair A/E 1.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 14.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.27 and +55.52 to a £1 stake over 239 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet debutants: 8.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −108.98 to a £1 stake over 336 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 30 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 12.3pts below the 12.3% baseline). Joe Fanning rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.5%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 6.1% over 578 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot (Oct 2023, £103,080). The stable star of the record: Sax Appeal (GB) — 10 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.2%−0.1

n=450 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −54.19

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.9%+4.6

n=124 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −14.24

Debutants · first career start

8.9%−3.4

n=336 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −108.98

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.1%−1.2

n=135 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −5.82

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.9%+1.6

n=36 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +0.25

When favourite

32.7%

n=446 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −84.24

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.6%+2.3

n=239 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +55.52

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.6%−4.7

n=184 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −66.87

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At York 3.2% vs 12.3% · n=95

At Ascot 3.2% vs 12.3% · n=93

In Class 2 6.1% vs 12.3% · n=578

At Epsom 3.4% vs 12.3% · n=59

At Nottingham 3.8% vs 12.3% · n=53

At Chelmsford City (AW) 18.4% vs 12.3% · n=212

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,615 222 13.7% −150.58

Good 952 110 11.6% −330.61

Good to Firm 891 107 12% −181.24

Good to Soft 363 40 11% −131.44

Soft 293 24 8.2% −107.73

Heavy 69 10 14.5% −20.00

Firm 13 3 23.1% +3.23

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 365 44 12.1% −107.81

Newcastle (AW) 316 47 14.9% +39.75

Kempton (AW) 283 32 11.3% −72.52

Southwell (AW) 234 32 13.7% −21.15

Chelmsford City (AW) 212 39 18.4% +12.13

Lingfield (AW) 202 28 13.9% +2.02

Hamilton 174 22 12.6% −28.84

Goodwood 158 16 10.1% −53.82

Musselburgh 157 24 15.3% −15.86

Beverley 156 24 15.4% −8.00

Newmarket 134 12 9% −8.67

Newmarket 131 16 12.2% +1.65

Ayr 123 19 15.4% −1.67

Chester 112 16 14.3% −29.12

Doncaster 111 10 9% −43.84

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,262 190 15.1% −95.36

Class 4 1,133 164 14.5% −98.31

Class 2 578 35 6.1% −311.85

Class 6 543 65 12% −164.17

Class 3 488 48 9.8% −173.81

Class 1 184 14 7.6% −66.87

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 513 157 30.6% 0.94 −106.20

2nd–3rd fav 1,176 206 17.5% 1.02 −142.00

4th–6th fav 1,567 119 7.6% 0.92 −369.17

7th+ in betting 939 34 3.6% 0.96 −301.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Artisan Dancer (FR)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 53 8 26 11 Jul 26

Urban Sprawl (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 50 5 19 8 Oct 25

Sax Appeal (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 49 10 15 21 Oct 26

Benacre (IRE)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 47 3 11 5 Sep 26

Ludo's Landing (IRE)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 44 6 14 11 Aug 26

Union Island (IRE) 41 8 13 23 Oct 26

Qitaal (GB)from K J Condon 41 3 11 16 Oct 26

Dreams Adozen (FR)from Charlie & Mark Johnston · then James Owen 41 5 18 28 Jun 25

Etretat (GB)then Andrew Hamilton 40 4 10 28 Apr 26

Dutch Decoy (GB)from Charlie & Mark Johnston 40 3 11 1 Nov 25

Mr Cool (IRE) 37 4 14 16 Oct 26

Wadacre Gomez (GB) 37 7 14 23 Sep 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 460 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 16 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Charlie & Mark Johnston (24); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Gary & Josh Moore (2) and H D McGuigan (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 30 0% · −12.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

5-season base12.3%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1318151211161111149119

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJoe Fanning

23% of all rides
13.5% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Joe Fanning 958 129 13.5% −155.60

Jason Hart 410 52 12.7% −95.68

Franny Norton 321 38 11.8% −52.43

Billy Loughnane 207 24 11.6% −107.39

Jack Mitchell 184 25 13.6% −60.51

Callum Shepherd 179 22 12.3% −24.75

Andrew Mullen 151 12 7.9% −77.74

Connor Beasley 149 26 17.4% −10.59

Archie Young 140 22 15.7% +28.56

Oliver Stammers 135 15 11.1% +0.58

Richard Kingscote 88 7 8% −52.80

Daniel Muscutt 86 7 8.1% −43.80

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

516

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.85m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 174 wins

The Gatekeeper (IRE) — Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2023 · Class 2

£103,080

Align The Stars (IRE) — JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Newcastle (AW) · Jun 2026 · Class 2

£77,310

Timeforshowcasing (GB) — Horn & Company German 1000 Guineas (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Dusseldorf (GER) · May 2026 · Group 2

£60,870

Notable horses

Sax Appeal (GB) Artisan Dancer (FR) Union Island (IRE) Wadacre Gomez (GB) Ludo's Landing (IRE) Urban Sprawl (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 11.3% · 19–168

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,564 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Iffraaj (GB) 10.2% · 15–147

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,970 runs since 2008 (1,091 horses).

Saxon Warrior (JPN) 15.4% · 22–143

Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,899 runs since 2008 (361 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.9% from 938. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.8% from 138.

Australia (GB) 10.3% · 14–136

Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,658 runs since 2008 (565 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Study Of Man (IRE) 15% · 19–127

Progeny have won 14.5% of 1,165 runs since 2008 (147 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.5% from 128. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 9.6% from 249.

Masar (IRE) 16.2% · 17–105

Progeny have won 11.7% of 1,221 runs since 2008 (174 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.7% from 166. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.3% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.1% from 166. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.7% from 220.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,196 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,196 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2023 to 26 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Oct 26 Redcar Wadacre Icon (GB)J: Jason Hart Wear Your Poppy With Pride Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 7/2

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sweet Love (GB)J: Jason Hart Market Cross Jewellers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 20/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sir Terry Hadley (GB)J: Jason Hart Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Giant Dan Burn (GER)J: Oliver Stammers Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 50/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Skylar (GER)J: Rowan Scott Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 11/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Olympiacos (FR)J: Rowan Scott racingtv.com/Freetrial British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 9/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Espanita (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd All-weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 20/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Velvet Rhythm (GB)J: Rowan Scott Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 4/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Vincenzo Peruggia (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 10/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Lady Perdita (GB)J: Billy Loughnane All Weather Championship Is Back Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 5/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Union Island (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 50/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sir Paul Ramsey (GB)J: Callum Shepherd AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Alterity (GB)J: Callum Shepherd All-Weather Championship Is Back Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 40/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Happy Love (GER)J: Rob Hornby CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 7/4F

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Sax Appeal (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 11th 40/1

21 Oct 26 Newmarket Highland Girl (GB)J: Saffie Osborne British Stallion Studs Ebf Future Stayers Nursery Handicap Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 22/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Le Grand Etoile (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 7/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Folk Pageant (GB)J: Rowan Scott Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 12.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Blue Mantle (GB)J: Rowan Scott attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Green Area (GB)J: David Probert Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Heavy · 9 ran 9th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Charlie Johnston's strike rate?: Charlie Johnston has won 516 of 4,196 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Charlie Johnston do best at?: Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 39 wins from 212 runners (18.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Charlie Johnston?: Joe Fanning, with 958 runners since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (13.5%).
Is Charlie Johnston in form?: In the last 14 days: 30 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 12.3% since 2022.
What is Charlie Johnston's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 4,161 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.