3:47 Uttoxeter
This Class 4 handicap steeplechase at Uttoxeter over 1m7f214y on good ground brings together a compact but competitive field of five. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top three, headed by Mister Cessna on 68, with Rula Bula close behind on 65 and Bleu d'Enfer on 59, while the two outsiders sit on 54 and 49 respectively. All five hold solid official ratings between 106 and 120, and with no obvious front-runner the race is expected to be decided by tactical positioning and how well the principals handle the muddling pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, lacking any confirmed front-runner. Those who race prominently or handy, such as Mister Cessna and Sweeper System, should be able to secure good early positions without using up too much energy. The three held-up runners will need to time their efforts carefully in what is likely to become a sprint for the line from around the penultimate fence. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or if the closers will find the gaps in the latter stages on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mister Cessna KTB Selection68/100
Mister Cessna is a smart performer who has already won over course and distance. He possesses a solid record on good ground and showed useful form when placed in stronger company last season. The five-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which should be an advantage in this muddling tactical affair. Fergal O'Brien has a 17% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 499 runs with an A/E of 0.95, while Jack Hogan operates at 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.2 from 62 rides. Both trainer and jockey therefore hold good records at the track, and the selection arrives with an official rating of 116 and recent form figures of 1264-7.
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2Rula Bula65/100
Rula Bula is a smart performer on his day with solid ratings and race history behind him. He has a good record on this ground and has won at today's trip though he drops back from 2m5f last time. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a style that could prove effective if the race develops as expected. Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill have a 14% strike rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.05 from 87 runs, while Jonjo O'Neill Jr. is on 12% with an A/E of 0.65 from 178 rides. Dropping in class from an official rating of 119, his recent form reads /1575- and he is expected to be in the mix.
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3Bleu d'Enfer59/100
Bleu d'Enfer is a high-class performer with solid recent form including a second here last time out and another placing at today's trip. He has a good record on good ground and the figures back him up strongly from an official rating of 120. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Donald McCain has a 13% strike rate at Uttoxeter from a large sample of 730 runs with an A/E of 0.84, though the booking of Harry Brown, who has a 0% strike rate from just two rides here, adds a note of caution. Recent form of 9-2462 and a placed effort on his only previous visit to the course keep him firmly in the picture.
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4Bobbi's Beauty54/100
Bobbi's Beauty is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a win last time and has a good record when dropping back to this trip. Two wins from three starts on good ground is another plus while the yard and jockey both have established records at Uttoxeter. Stepping up in class from an official rating of 108 with recent form 42251-, the eight-year-old is usually held up with high confidence and this first run at the track is taken as neutral.
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5Sweeper System49/100
Sweeper System is a smart performer who has already won over today's trip. Recent efforts show a mixed bag with a win and a third sandwiched around a pulled-up effort. The trainer's modest 1% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 69 runs is a negative while the jockey has a solid record here with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.92. Usually racing prominently, the six-year-old holds an official rating of 106 with form figures 53P13- and is placed once from one start on good ground.
KTB verdict
Mister Cessna stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won over course and distance, boasts a solid record on good ground, and showed useful form in stronger company last season. His prominent run-style looks ideally suited to the muddling tactical shape, while the strong combined records of trainer Fergal O'Brien and jockey Jack Hogan at Uttoxeter add further layers of confidence. Rula Bula and Bleu d'Enfer are the main dangers, both smart performers in their own right with good ground records and recent placings, though the former has to overcome being held up in a race that may not fall perfectly and the latter carries the highest weight.
KTB Selection Mister Cessna
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Uttoxeter racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over both the course and the distance?
Mister Cessna has won here from one visit and has won over today's trip.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The muddling and tactical pace with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace, such as the prominent runners Mister Cessna and Sweeper System.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Uttoxeter in this field?
Fergal O'Brien has a 17% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 499 runs with an A/E of 0.95.
Which runner is dropping in class?
Rula Bula is dropping in class.
Which horse has course form at Uttoxeter?
Bleu d'Enfer has one run here, finishing second, while Mister Cessna has won from one visit; the others have no course form on record.
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