What is Martin Keighley's strike rate?

Martin Keighley has won 105 of 977 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Martin Keighley do best at?

Stratford by strike rate: 6 wins from 42 runners (14.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Martin Keighley?

Sean Bowen, with 274 runners since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (16.4%).

Is Martin Keighley in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is above the baseline of 10.7% since 2022.

What is Martin Keighley's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 973 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Martin Keighley

977 runners in the last 5 seasons · 121 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 10.4% of 211 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 1 Nov 2026.

In form — 3 winners last 14 days Last runner 2 days ago 96% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

105–977

Wins / Runs

10.7%

Strike rate

n=977

266 (27%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=973 · 0.82 incl. margin

−163.27

£1 level stake

n=977 at SP · −16.7%

£1.06m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 200 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.94). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 16% (51 runs). The yard is in form now — 3 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 977 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct 31.5% when favourite Sean Bowen: 16.4% from 274 Headgear returns: 15.7% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 15.7% (n=51, Fair A/E 1.57), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.2% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.66). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 8.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −56.09 to a £1 stake over 341 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is firing: 3 winners from 16 runners in the last 14 days (18.8%, 8.1pts above the 10.7% baseline). Sean Bowen rides 28% of the entries and beats the yard's average (16.4% vs 10.7%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 3.6% over 55 runners, 7.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.61 across 131 runners (5.3% strike, −100.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton (Dec 2013, £39,865). The stable star of the record: Mr Mafia (IRE) — 12 wins from 46 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.4%−1.3

n=266 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −80.12

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.3%−1.4

n=43 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −21.62

Debutants · first career start

6.1%−4.6

n=49 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −15.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.2%−6.5

n=48 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −26.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15.7%+5.0

n=51 · A/E 1.57 · £1 +35.50

When favourite

31.5%

n=89 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −19.77

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.5%−2.2

n=341 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −56.09

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.7

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.1% vs 10.7% · n=110

With Sean Bowen 16.4% vs 10.7% · n=274

In Class 2 3.6% vs 10.7% · n=55

With James Best 5.6% vs 10.7% · n=198

In NH Flat races 4.7% vs 10.7% · n=85

On Soft going 5.3% vs 10.7% · n=131

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 498 46 9.2% −94.30

Chase 353 51 14.4% −2.85

NH Flat 85 4 4.7% −48.37

Flat 41 4 9.8% −17.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 507 61 12% −59.26

Good to Soft 237 27 11.4% +31.52

Soft 131 7 5.3% −100.67

Heavy 49 4 8.2% −12.73

Good to Firm 40 4 10% −14.88

Standard (AW) 13 2 15.4% −7.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell 108 11 10.2% −40.37

Worcester 87 11 12.6% +26.04

Uttoxeter 74 10 13.5% −28.67

Cheltenham 71 8 11.3% +70.50

Hereford 61 6 9.8% −36.49

Ludlow 50 5 10% −4.50

Market Rasen 42 4 9.5% −22.75

Stratford 42 6 14.3% +65.83

Chepstow 39 2 5.1% −18.50

Newton Abbot 34 3 8.8% −15.88

Warwick 32 3 9.4% −6.50

Taunton 31 4 12.9% −8.75

Huntingdon 28 3 10.7% −11.56

Leicester 27 2 7.4% −21.67

Ffos Las 23 3 13% −4.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 397 44 11.1% −88.88

Class 4 389 44 11.3% −48.55

Class 3 94 11 11.7% +17.91

Class 2 55 2 3.6% −25.00

Class 1 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 6 20 4 20% +3.25

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 108 33 30.6% 0.96 −20.34

2nd–3rd fav 223 28 12.6% 0.70 −79.93

4th–6th fav 347 34 9.8% 1.17 −37.00

7th+ in betting 299 10 3.3% 1.20 −26.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

78.6% completed · 851 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 353 70% 8 7 89 0 2

Hurdle 498 84.7% 8 5 61 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Duke Of Luckley (IRE) 31 9 13 23 Oct 26

Redbridge Rambler (IRE) 28 3 8 19 Aug 26

Another Day Out (IRE) 27 4 9 25 May 26

Ben Buie (IRE) 27 5 11 2 Jan 25

Herecomeshogan (IRE) 27 2 6 17 Dec 24

Pike Road (GB) 23 2 6 30 Oct 26

Continuance (GB)from Jack Channon 22 5 10 23 Oct 26

Bobbi's Beauty (IRE) 21 4 6 16 Oct 26

Prairie Diamond (IRE) 19 3 7 26 Oct 26

Kazontherazz (GB) 18 0 7 9 May 25

Back On The Lash (GB) 18 1 4 7 May 25

She Has Notions (IRE)from J Halley 17 1 2 2 Jul 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 121 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from L J Morgan (2); 38 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

3 from 16 18.8% · +8.1pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.8%

5-season base10.7%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

6121581549121416116

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSean Bowen

28% of all rides
16.4% SR · A/E 1.07

RiderRWSR£1

Sean Bowen 274 45 16.4% +23.96

James Best 198 11 5.6% −135.68

Freddie Keighley 139 17 12.2% −13.47

Harry Atkins 79 6 7.6% −29.62

Daire McConville 52 3 5.8% +37.50

Adam Wedge 39 5 12.8% +15.83

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

410

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.43m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 37 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Annacotty (IRE) — Kauto Star Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Formerly The Feltham Novices' Chase) (Grade 1) Kempton · Dec 2013 · Grade 1

£39,865

Annacotty (IRE) — freebets.com Trophy Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Cheltenham · Jan 2015 · Grade 3

£28,475

Champion Court (IRE) — Macmillan Cancer Support Silver Trophy Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) Cheltenham · Apr 2013 · Class 1

£28,475

Notable horses

Mr Mafia (IRE) Solstice Star (GB) Back On The Lash (GB) Duke Of Luckley (IRE) Found On (IRE) Benbane Head (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mahler (GB) 19.6% · 22–112

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,863 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Ocovango (GB) 13.3% · 8–60

Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,999 runs since 2008 (305 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.9% from 194.

Postponed (IRE) 20% · 10–50

Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,575 runs since 2008 (165 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.1% from 452. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.7% from 140. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.4% from 202.

Yeats (IRE) 5% · 2–40

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,832 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Court Cave (IRE) 17.9% · 7–39

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,946 runs since 2008 (552 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Presenting (GB) 18.9% · 7–37

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,641 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,641 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2005 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Pike Road (GB)J: James Best Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 13th 22/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Springs A Girl (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 4th 18/1

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Lucky Bailly (FR)J: Freddie Keighley bettingsites.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 14/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Hot Goddess (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 17/2

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Glance Of Glory (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran F 100/30F

26 Oct 26 Hereford Here I Bow (FR)J: James Best BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Hereford Prairie Diamond (IRE)J: Mr Harry Hoyles BETTING.BET Free Racing Tips 'hands And Heels' Handicap Hurdle Race(conditional & Amateur Jockeys') (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran UR 11/4

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Turndlightsdownlow (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley William Hill Price Boosts 'chasing Excellence' Novices' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 6 ran UR 4/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Shannon Royale (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 16/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham De Temps En Temps (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley William Hill Epic Boosts Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham O'Moore Park (IRE)J: Sean Bowen William Hill Epic Boosts Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 1st 25/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Better Off Alone (IRE)J: Mr Sean O'Connor Chapel Down Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 25f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 7/2

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Duke Of Luckley (IRE)J: James Best Squareintheair.com Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 50/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Continuance (GB)J: Harry Atkins Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 6/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Happier (IRE)J: Toby Moore Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 4th 10/1

21 Oct 26 Worcester Wispit Twob (IRE)J: Sean Bowen CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 25/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Bobbi's Beauty (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Thomas And Sonny Crilly Plant Hire Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 11/2

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Emailandy (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Insurance Connections Best Bet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 4th 16/1

13 Oct 26 Southwell Bluey Bay (GB)J: James Best Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran 5th 7/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Amberelli (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Dragonbet Daily Extra Place Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 8th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 11 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 29 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Martin Keighley's strike rate?: Martin Keighley has won 105 of 977 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Martin Keighley do best at?: Stratford by strike rate: 6 wins from 42 runners (14.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Martin Keighley?: Sean Bowen, with 274 runners since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (16.4%).
Is Martin Keighley in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is above the baseline of 10.7% since 2022.
What is Martin Keighley's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 973 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.