5:13 Ayr
A small but competitive Class 6 handicap over 1m5f26y on heavy ground at Ayr brings five runners together. The KTB Fit ratings separate them modestly, with Wootton's Gal heading the numbers on 55, followed by Furhaan on 51 and Aighear on 45, suggesting a race where recent heavy-ground form and course familiarity will carry significant weight. The pace shape points to a strong gallop, which could set things up for those able to come from off the pace late.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Furhaan and Vampire Slayer, a strong pace is anticipated and the confidence in that assessment is medium. This could lead to the leaders coming back to the field in the latter stages on this heavy surface, playing into the hands of hold-up performers. Aighear, Wootton's Gal and Off Spin are all usually held up, so the key question is whether any of them can time their effort best once the early pace takes its toll.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Wootton's Gal KTB Selection55/100
Wootton's Gal is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a heavy-ground handicap over 1m4f last time out. She steps up in trip today for the first time in a race, having been beaten on both previous starts at this distance. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard post a 12% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.17 from 34 runs, while Oisin Orr has a 9% strike rate at the track from 191 rides. She acts well on heavy ground with one win from one attempt and is held up, usually producing her effort late. Her recent form reads -24951 and she carries an official rating of 64 from draw 4.
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2Furhaan51/100
Furhaan is a modest performer who has placed on both previous visits to Ayr and is well suited by heavy ground with one win and one place from two runs. He drops back in trip today after his last start over 1m7f and has been placed once at this distance. The Jim Goldie stable show a 10% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.89 from a huge 3648 runs, while Lauren Young has an 11% strike rate at the track from 88 rides. Usually a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, his recent form is 234932 from an official rating of 61 out of stall 1.
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3Aighear45/100
Aighear is a limited performer who has won four times at this track from 14 starts and handles heavy ground well with two wins from three attempts. Dropping back to 1m5f looks a sensible move after his last run over further and he has scored at today's trip in the past. Jim Goldie and Paul Mulrennan both have solid records at Ayr, the trainer on 10% and the jockey on 14%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 346541 from an official rating of 51 out of draw 2.
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4Vampire Slayer44/100
Vampire Slayer is a limited performer who has been placed on his last two visits to Ayr without winning. He has shown he can be competitive on heavy ground and steps up in trip today having already been placed without winning at this distance. First-time headgear is now applied.
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5Off Spin42/100
Off Spin is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year and is stepping up in trip for the first time in a while. He has shown some ability on this track with a second and a third from five runs but has never won here and remains unproven on heavy ground. Both trainer and jockey hold an 11% strike rate at Ayr from large samples.
KTB verdict
Wootton's Gal is the KTB Selection. She showed improved form when landing a heavy-ground handicap over 1m4f last time and, while she steps up in trip, the strong pace should suit her hold-up style. Her yard continue in reasonable form at Ayr and the heavy ground looks ideal. The main dangers are Furhaan, who knows his way around here, handles the surface and will set the pace, and Aighear, who boasts four course wins and a strong record on heavy going.
KTB Selection Wootton's Gal
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time in a race?
Wootton's Gal
How many course wins does Aighear have at Ayr?
Four wins from 14 starts
What is the going record for Furhaan on heavy ground?
1 win from 2 on heavy (2 placed)
Which runners are usually held up?
Wootton's Gal, Aighear and Off Spin
What new flag is Vampire Slayer carrying?
First-time headgear
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