5:05 Tramore
The Waterford Greenway Beginners Steeplechase at Tramore brings together a field of 13 for this 2m4f80y contest on yielding ground. It is a beginners' chase where jumping experience and stamina will be tested, and the KTB Fit scores suggest a race with no standout standout but several with placed claims. The overall numbers point to a contest where course knowledge and proven ability at the trip could prove decisive, though several runners bring unknowns regarding the ground or distance.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one horse will likely secure an uncontested lead from the front. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is set up for the leader to potentially dictate matters and prove hard for closers to reel in. The key question is whether any horse can bridge the gap in the latter stages on this yielding surface, or if the front-runner will maintain the advantage throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hatfield Hammer KTB Selection57/100
Hatfield Hammer is a useful performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing placed on two of his five starts at this trip. He steps up in distance today while having only one run on yielding ground so far, which adds an unknown. The trainer strikes at 9% here from a big sample of 252 runs while this is the horse's first run at Tramore. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer and jockey combine with an 11/88 (13%) record and A/E 1.07, though the yard is 9% at Tramore overall with an A/E of 0.68. The recent form figures of -634U6 reflect that placed consistency at the distance.
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2Installment51/100
Installment has shown little since a fair fourth here over shorter last year and his recent form figures of 7-4P0P underline a lack of progress. He steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at this distance. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate from 46 runs at Tramore. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence in that run-style. He has course form with a fourth on his only previous visit and is unproven on yielding ground. Trainer and jockey record stands at respective 9% and 5% strike rates at the track.
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3Rattledelatch51/100
Rattledelatch has shown some promise at this track with a second-place finish from two runs and has been competitive in recent starts, finishing second and fourth in his last two outings. He now drops back in trip to 2m4f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate from 140 runs at Tramore. He is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer and jockey combine with a 2/18 (11%) record and A/E 1.56. The recent form of -96024 includes that placed effort here and the latest competitive showing.
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4Moonlight Paradise47/100
Moonlight Paradise won on her only previous start at Tramore. She has been in and out this season with a recent win sandwiched between some modest efforts and a pulled-up run. The drop back in trip is an unknown and her two runs on yielding ground have produced no win or place. She is held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence in that run-style. The trainer is 9% at Tramore from 252 runs while the jockey is 8% from 375 rides at the track. Trainer and jockey record stands at 24/179 (13%) with an A/E of 0.93.
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5Kimy46/100
Kimy has shown little in five starts this year and was well beaten on her most recent outing. She did win over course and distance in the past but has failed to place in three runs at this trip since and is 0-6 on yielding ground. The trainer has a 13% strike rate from 64 runs here. She is held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence in that run-style. The jockey is 12% at Tramore from 338 rides. Trainer and jockey record stands at 17/193 (9%) with an A/E of 0.83, while she has a course record of one win from four starts.
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6Doctor Confusion46/100
Doctor Confusion has shown fair form when finishing third over hurdles at this trip last time but was well held on his only previous run here. He steps up in trip again today having been beaten on his one attempt at this distance. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 585 runs at Tramore while the jockey is 14% from 292 rides at the track. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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7Le Vent d'Ex46/100
Le Vent d'Ex has shown very little in four starts so far with a recent form string of P-000. The step up from 2m to today's 2m4f is an unknown that could suit or expose him further given the modest form. Trainer and jockey both have no recorded runs at Tramore so this adds another layer of uncertainty on a lightly-raced horse. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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8King Gris45/100
King Gris is a useful performer who has shown a fair level of ability on his better days. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance on his only previous attempt, though he is unproven on yielding ground. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 513 runs at Tramore while the jockey is 12% from 172 rides at the track. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Laska Du Breuil44/100
Laska Du Breuil is a useful sort who has won twice this year and brings strong recent ratings. He has struggled on yielding ground in four attempts and is unproven over today's trip having failed to place in three previous tries. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Tramore while the jockey is 0-6 here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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10Lunar Majesty44/100
Lunar Majesty has shown only modest form in recent starts and ran no better than sixth when tried over this trip previously. He was well held on his only visit to Tramore and has failed to place on his one run on yielding ground. The trainer's poor 4% strike rate at the track adds to the negatives. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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11Cruisin Susan43/100
Cruisin Susan has a solid record at Tramore with two wins from 15 runs and has also won over today's trip. Recent form has been modest though and she is yet to place in six runs on yielding ground. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at the track adds little encouragement. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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12Calm Flight Ahead42/100
Calm Flight Ahead has shown improvement since switching to handicaps, winning both starts in that sphere after early promise was hard to find. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in two previous tries at this distance, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 507 runs at Tramore. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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13Palace Boy40/100
Palace Boy has shown very little in recent starts and was pulled up last time out. He has only run once at Tramore and once on yielding ground with no placed efforts on either. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate here from 34 runs while the horse steps up in trip today as a fresh question. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Hatfield Hammer is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, with placed efforts on two of five starts at this trip, and he brings the best KTB Fit score of 57. The unknowns of the longer distance and yielding ground are noted, yet his overall profile fits well in a race where the pace shape favours those who can close late. Main dangers include Rattledelatch, who has shown promise at the track with a second from two runs and recent competitiveness, and Moonlight Paradise, who won on her only previous start at Tramore. Kimy and Installment round out the principals with course knowledge and placed form respectively, though both bring recent modest performances.
KTB Selection Hatfield Hammer
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Tramore results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Doctor Confusion tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the only front-runner in the field against a pace shape of lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals have previous placed form at Tramore?
Two: Rattledelatch with a second from two runs and Moonlight Paradise with a win on her only start here.
Which runner has won over the course and distance in the past?
Kimy won over course and distance in the past but has failed to place in three runs at this trip since.
What is the trainer strike rate at Tramore for the yard of the selection?
Paul Nolan has a 9% strike rate at Tramore from 252 runs.
Which horse brings the highest trainer strike rate at the track among the principals?
John Queally with a 14% strike rate at Tramore from 140 runs for Rattledelatch.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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