7:00 Southwell (AW)
A small but competitive Class 4 novice stakes over 4f 215y on the standard surface at Southwell sets the scene for an intriguing tactical affair. With only five runners and no obvious front-runner in the field, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run race where experience and course knowledge could prove decisive. Leading Times heads the KTB Fit ratings on 60 while the others cluster between 43 and 48, underlining that there is scope for the selection to build on limited but promising form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is only medium, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy will pay. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can secure a prominent position without over-racing or whether the race will collapse late as the held-up runners converge. With draw and run-style both likely to matter on this track, the ability to quicken off a steady gallop could separate the principals from the rest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Leading Times KTB Selection60/100
Leading Times showed fair form when winning on debut here over this trip on standard ground last year before a solid second on turf. He returns after a long break with only two career runs behind him so there is still scope for improvement. The yard and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here. Tim Easterby and Sean Kirrane have combined for a 10% record from 929 rides with an A/E of 0.85. Leading Times has a 1-2 record on standard going and won on his only previous visit to Southwell. Usually held up, his late effort could be well suited if the race develops as the steadily-run affair the pace shape suggests.
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2Sunday River48/100
Sunday River is lightly raced with just one poor run to go on so this is very much an unknown quantity. Brian Ellison has a solid 15% strike rate at Southwell from a huge sample of runners while the 3 lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall is operating at a 7% strike rate here. Dropping back from 6f to an untried 5f presents a fresh question. The trainer-jockey combination shows a 7% strike rate from 15 rides with an A/E of 0.50. Sunday River is unproven on standard ground and has no course form on record. Usually held up, he will need to improve markedly on what little is known if he is to feature.
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3Wouldilietoyou46/100
Wouldilietoyou is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 13% strike rate at Southwell. The stable has sent out plenty of runners here yet the A/E of 0.79 suggests they are not quite hitting the mark as often as the numbers might imply. Mark Winn has a solid 9% strike rate from 118 rides at the track with an A/E close to 1.00. By Ubettabelieveit, a sire with an 11% overall win rate from 432 runners, the colt is stepping into a race where experience may count. Drawn in stall 1 he has a potentially advantageous low draw in a steadily-run affair. The David O'Meara stable's 11% strike rate from 528 rides with an A/E of 0.91 adds further interest.
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4Qila46/100
Qila is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, finishing in the frame on her last three starts including two placed efforts at this trip. Drawn low in stall 2 which should help at this track, and the yard has a solid record here. The trainer shows a 15% strike rate at Southwell from 878 runs with an A/E of 0.97 while Harry Russell has a 10% record from 156 rides with an A/E of 0.86. Usually held up with high confidence, she has been placed once from one run on standard ground.
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5Believeinmenow43/100
Believeinmenow is a modest performer who has been placed without winning on his last two starts over this trip. He has run well here before, finishing second on his only visit to Southwell, and has shown he handles the standard surface. The drop back from 6f is an unknown at this stage while the trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike rate on this track. Nigel Tinkler has a 7% strike rate at Southwell from 642 runs with an A/E of 0.69 and Alex Jary a 6% record from 104 rides with an A/E of 0.75. Usually held up with high confidence, he steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Leading Times is the KTB Selection and looks to hold the strongest claims on the balance of what is known. His course-and-distance win on standard ground last year, coupled with the scope for further progress from just two runs, gives him a clear edge in a race where experience is likely to be important. The main dangers are the unexposed Sunday River, who represents a yard in form at the track, and the newcomer Wouldilietoyou from the O'Meara stable, while Qila and Believeinmenow bring consistent but modest placed form that may leave them vulnerable if the selection improves as expected.
KTB Selection Leading Times
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Leading Times | 2/1 | William Hill |
| Sunday River | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Wouldilietoyou | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Qila | 6/4 | William Hill |
| Believeinmenow | 3/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Southwell (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Southwell (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form on standard ground?
Leading Times, who won here over this trip on standard ground last year.
How many career starts has Leading Times had?
Two, with form figures of 12-.
What is Brian Ellison's strike rate at Southwell?
15% from 878 runs with an A/E of 0.97.
Which runners are described as usually held up?
All five runners are held-up types according to their run-style notes.
Has Believeinmenow been placed at Southwell before?
Yes, he finished second on his only visit to the track.
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