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Jockey profile

Tom Kiely-Marshall

770 rides in the last 5 seasons · 371 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 7 days ago 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2022
60–770
Wins / Runs
7.8%
Strike rate
n=770
184 (24%)
Placed
0.92
Fair A/E
n=770 · 0.77 incl. margin
−226.23
£1 level stake
n=770 at SP · −29.4%
£641k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.4%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (79 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 770 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep 22.9% when favourite Julie Camacho: 8.3% from 216 LTO winners: 15.2% Rides the favourite in 5% of races
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (3.1% over 32 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.2% (n=79, Fair A/E 1.15), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.4% (n=158, Fair A/E 0.87). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 7.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −237.44 to a £1 stake over 707 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Julie Camacho supplies 28% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.3%, A/E 0.83). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14.5%, n=62) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (12.8%, n=133). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 2.9% over 34 rides, 4.9pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7.6%−0.2
n=369 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −35.13
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
15.2%+7.4
n=79 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −19.59
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5.4%−2.4
n=111 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −26.00
When favourite
22.9%
n=35 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −9.79
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.2%−0.6
n=707 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −237.44
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.4%−3.4
n=158 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −21.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 15.2% vs 7.8% · n=79
With Joseph G Murphy 0% vs 7.8% · n=37
Off a 0-7-day break 14.5% vs 7.8% · n=62
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 12.8% vs 7.8% · n=133
Over 1m5f – 2m 2.9% vs 7.8% · n=34
At Dundalk (AW) 3.1% vs 7.8% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 304 22 7.2% −144.77
Good 177 12 6.8% −83.71
Good to Firm 108 11 10.2% −18.12
Soft 85 8 9.4% +53.12
Good to Soft 65 4 6.2% −19.75
Heavy 31 3 9.7% −13.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 131 10 7.6% −57.55
Southwell (AW) 59 5 8.5% −29.84
Redcar 53 4 7.5% −26.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 53 4 7.5% −22.00
Beverley 50 4 8% −24.05
Dundalk (AW) 32 1 3.1% −15.00
Doncaster 28 1 3.6% −21.00
Hamilton 26 4 15.4% +14.00
York 24 0 0% −24.00
Thirsk 22 4 18.2% −5.12
Musselburgh 20 3 15% +2.50
Ayr 20 1 5% −8.00
Catterick 20 3 15% −0.75
Pontefract 19 1 5.3% −15.25
Ripon 17 1 5.9% +12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 294 29 9.9% −129.72
Class 5 181 18 9.9% −38.67
Class 4 120 6 5% −44.34
Class 3 33 3 9.1% −2.50
Class 2 28 0 0% −28.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 48 11 22.9% 0.93 −11.17
2nd–3rd fav 143 24 16.8% 1.07 −18.06
4th–6th fav 261 18 6.9% 0.87 −70.00
7th+ in betting 318 7 2.2% 0.69 −127.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Dandy's Angel (IRE) 21 4 8 4 Nov 26
Holbache (GB) 18 4 6 6 Nov 26
Let's Go Hugo (IRE) 18 4 9 26 Sep 26
Korroor (IRE) 13 2 5 5 Feb 26
Prince Hector (IRE) 11 1 3 10 Mar 26
Water Mint (IRE) 10 0 1 17 Oct 23
First Folio (GB) 9 0 3 29 Jul 26
Zapphire (IRE) 9 1 5 7 Sep 25
Brummell (IRE) 8 2 4 6 Oct 26
Havin A Flyer (GB) 8 1 2 25 Sep 26
Sixcor (GB) 8 2 4 12 Sep 26
Two B Tanned (GB) 8 2 3 16 Aug 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 371 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 10
Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
03855391613865
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardJulie Camacho
28% of all rides
8.3% SR · A/E 0.83
TrainerRWSR£1
Julie Camacho 216 18 8.3% −81.79
Joseph G Murphy 37 0 0% −37.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
63
Archived wins
£677k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 24 wins
Two B Tanned (GB) — Sky Bet Proud To Support Young Lives Vs Cancer Apprentice Handicap Musselburgh · Apr 2026 · Class 4
£15,702
Joolianoss (IRE) — Ascot Racecourse Supports Debra Manny Mercer Apprentice Handicap (Str) Ascot · May 2026 · Class 3
£13,500
Brummell (IRE) — Contraflow Traffic Management Handicap Hamilton · Aug 2025 · Class 3
£10,308
Notable horses
Dandy's Angel (IRE) Holbache (GB) Let's Go Hugo (IRE) Korroor (IRE) Brummell (IRE) Sixcor (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dandy Man (IRE) 16.7% · 7–42
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.
Mayson (GB) 3.6% · 1–28
Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,396 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.
Kodiac (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.
Galileo Gold (GB) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,049 runs since 2021 (176 horses).
Coach House (IRE) 20% · 4–20
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,482 runs since 2018 (145 horses).
Mehmas (IRE) 20% · 4–20
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,243 runs since 2020 (755 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 803 · newest first

The latest 50 of 803 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 February 2021 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Sycamore Gap (GB)T: Grant Tuer Join The Midnite Movement Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 100/30
06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Bibendum (GB)T: Julie Camacho Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 28/1
06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Holbache (GB)T: Julie Camacho Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 50/1
06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Five Star George (IRE)T: Julie Camacho AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 50/1
05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Infinity Blue (IRE)T: Julie Camacho Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 6/1
05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Leabank (IRE)T: Julie Camacho AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 80/1
04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Hunky Dory (GB)T: Linda Perratt Nairns Oatcakes Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 50/1
04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Dandy's Angel (IRE)T: John Wainwright Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 12.5f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 20/1
03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bungle Bay (IRE)T: James Evans AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 16/1
02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Carwyn (IRE)T: Patrick Morris AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 22/1
31 Oct 26 Newmarket Winged Messenger (GB)T: Julie Camacho Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 7/1
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Camino Del Ray (GB)T: Julie Camacho Awc Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 11/2
27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Dabbling (IRE)T: Ollie Pears Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 8/1
26 Oct 26 Redcar Night Emperor (IRE)T: Tina Jackson Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 2nd 3/1F
26 Oct 26 Redcar Leabank (IRE)T: Julie Camacho racingtv.com/Freetrial British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 40/1
24 Oct 26 Doncaster Ceo Stealth Mode (IRE)T: Suzzanne France Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 11th 80/1
24 Oct 26 Doncaster Milford (GB)T: Julie Camacho Richard James Hone Memorial Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 13/2
23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mae Amor (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Awc Season 14 Has Begun Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 11/1
23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Landlordtothestars (IRE)T: James Evans Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 16/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Mayo County (GB)T: Julie Camacho Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 13 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Kiely-Marshall's strike rate?
Tom Kiely-Marshall has won 60 of 770 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Kiely-Marshall do best at?
Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 59 rides (8.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom Kiely-Marshall ride most for?
Julie Camacho, with 216 rides since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (8.3%).
Is Tom Kiely-Marshall in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Kiely-Marshall's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 770 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).