What is Nigel Tinkler's strike rate?

Nigel Tinkler has won 169 of 2,019 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nigel Tinkler do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 64 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nigel Tinkler?

Faye McManoman, with 678 runners since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 54 (8%).

Is Nigel Tinkler in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Nigel Tinkler's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 2,004 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nigel Tinkler

2,019 runners in the last 5 seasons · 170 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.1% of 421 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

169–2,019

Wins / Runs

8.4%

Strike rate

n=2,019

506 (25%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=2,004 · 0.83 incl. margin

−330.60

£1 level stake

n=2,019 at SP · −16.4%

£1.93m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 400 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 14% (44 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,019 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 23% when favourite Faye McManoman: 8% from 678 Headgear returns: 13.6% Claiming riders: 10% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Haydock (2.4% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=44, Fair A/E 1.58), but debutants struggle at 0.8% (n=118, Fair A/E 0.36). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 10% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.15 and +157.86 to a £1 stake over 732 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −82.00 to a £1 stake over 214 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Faye McManoman rides 34% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (12.8%, n=78). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 3.8% over 130 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 2: Fair A/E 0.64 across 100 runners (4% strike, −77.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bombardier Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster (Sep 2020, £34,026). The stable star of the record: Athollblair Boy (IRE) — 15 wins from 135 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.7%−3.7

n=214 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −82.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.6%−2.8

n=18 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −13.00

Debutants · first career start

0.8%−7.6

n=118 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −97.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.9%−0.5

n=76 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −20.92

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.6%+5.2

n=44 · A/E 1.58 · £1 +12.50

When favourite

23%

n=122 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −25.20

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10%+1.6

n=732 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +157.86

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.4

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 0.8% vs 8.4% · n=118

At Haydock 2.4% vs 8.4% · n=42

On Soft going 3.8% vs 8.4% · n=130

In Class 2 4% vs 8.4% · n=100

With headgear back on 13.6% vs 8.4% · n=44

Off a 0-7-day break 12.8% vs 8.4% · n=78

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,016 169 8.4% −327.60

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 580 52 9% +93.62

Good to Firm 548 52 9.5% −175.94

Good 547 43 7.9% −116.92

Good to Soft 189 16 8.5% −9.94

Soft 130 5 3.8% −99.67

Heavy 24 1 4.2% −20.75

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 449 44 9.8% +97.41

Redcar 201 20 10% +19.91

Beverley 187 16 8.6% −78.00

Doncaster 170 13 7.6% −10.07

York 146 10 6.8% −60.00

Thirsk 116 7 6% +0.75

Ripon 111 10 9% −51.37

Southwell (AW) 84 4 4.8% +12.58

Nottingham 64 8 12.5% −15.79

Pontefract 60 5 8.3% −14.25

Carlisle 53 5 9.4% −20.42

Haydock 42 1 2.4% −36.50

Catterick 41 4 9.8% −14.25

Musselburgh 33 1 3% −29.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 26 0 0% −26.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 719 77 10.7% +14.27

Class 5 655 52 7.9% −58.62

Class 4 391 23 5.9% −181.50

Class 3 134 13 9.7% −7.25

Class 2 100 4 4% −77.50

Class 1 18 0 0% −18.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 152 35 23% 0.94 −29.95

2nd–3rd fav 365 52 14.2% 0.90 −99.65

4th–6th fav 641 49 7.6% 0.96 −149.00

7th+ in betting 861 33 3.8% 1.22 −52.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Athollblair Boy (IRE) 58 7 15 10 Jan 26

Another Investment (IRE) 56 2 15 17 Oct 26

Dandy Dinmont (IRE) 54 6 19 3 Sep 26

Roundhay Park (GB) 49 5 11 6 Jun 26

Paddy's Day (IRE)from Charles Hills 47 7 20 16 Oct 26

Sergeant Mayer (IRE) 42 7 21 16 Oct 26

Muker (IRE)from Paul Midgley 40 6 12 15 Sep 26

Golden Duke (IRE) 36 2 11 30 Sep 25

Bella Kopella (IRE) 36 6 15 8 Feb 25

Whatwouldyouknow (IRE)from Richard Guest 36 3 10 8 Nov 24

Theme Park (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute 34 3 6 24 Aug 26

Dougies Dream (IRE) 33 4 8 4 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 170 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 51 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

6198510891066158

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderFaye McManoman

34% of all rides
8% SR · A/E 1.00

RiderRWSR£1

Faye McManoman 678 54 8% −132.31

Rowan Scott 570 47 8.2% −193.46

Alex Jary 523 47 9% −71.84

Lewis Edmunds 32 3 9.4% −17.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

486

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.38m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 41 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ubettabelieveit (IRE) — Bombardier Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Doncaster · Sep 2020 · Group 2

£34,026

Squealer (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap York · Jun 2025 · Class 2

£33,501

Thesme (GB) — Betfred Apprentice Handicap York · Aug 2015 · Class 2

£31,125

Notable horses

Athollblair Boy (IRE) Roundhay Park (GB) Ginger Jam (GB) Bashiba (IRE) Kaeso (GB) Misplaced Fortune (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Awtaad (IRE) 9.6% · 17–177

Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,864 runs since 2008 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.8% from 102. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 14.6% from 604. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.2% from 113.

Mehmas (IRE) 7.5% · 11–147

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Dandy Man (IRE) 7.9% · 10–127

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,917 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Soldier's Call (GB) 12% · 12–100

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,098 runs since 2008 (215 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.1% from 198. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 243.

Mayson (GB) 6.3% · 6–96

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,363 runs since 2008 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 1,726. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Profitable (IRE) 8.3% · 6–72

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,410 runs since 2008 (356 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,119 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,119 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Catterick Another Investment (IRE)J: Alex Jary William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Veterans' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 9th 33/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Paddy's Day (IRE)J: Alex Jary Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 6/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Duran (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 4th 7/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Sir David (FR)J: Faye McManoman racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 3rd 14/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Houndhill (GB)J: Cieren Fallon Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 7/2

16 Oct 26 Redcar Sergeant Mayer (IRE)J: Faye McManoman Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 9/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Whiskey Pete (IRE)J: Alex Jary Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 17/2

09 Oct 26 York Magic Boy (GER)J: Alex Jary Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 8th 11/1

09 Oct 26 York Fidelius (GB)J: Alex Jary Copper Knight Winning-most Horse Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 80/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Sir David (FR)J: Alex Jary Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 8/1

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Amidst The Chaos (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 7th 10/1

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Another Investment (IRE)J: Alex Jary Bettingsites.co.uk Every Bookie Compared Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 20/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Soul Warrior (IRE)J: Alex Jary Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 9/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Claret Time (GB)J: Alex Jary H. Malone & Sons 100th Anniversary Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 15/2

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Whiskey Pete (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sergeant Mayer (IRE)J: Alex Jary Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 9/2

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Rousham (GB)J: Faye McManoman Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 11/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Baldosa (IRE)J: Faye McManoman Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 10/1

30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Azuinthejungle (GB)J: Alex Jary Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 9/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr What A Girl Wants (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Weddings At Western House Hotel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 9/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nigel Tinkler's strike rate?: Nigel Tinkler has won 169 of 2,019 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nigel Tinkler do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 64 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nigel Tinkler?: Faye McManoman, with 678 runners since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 54 (8%).
Is Nigel Tinkler in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nigel Tinkler's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 2,004 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.