Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
18.2%+10.1
n=11 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +4.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+8.6
n=6 · A/E 2.24 · £1 −2.25
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −0.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.7%−0.4
n=13 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −9.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2727.4%−13.33
Chase7114.3%−3.25
NH Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1815.6%−14.25
Good to Soft7114.3%−5.33
Heavy500%−5.00
Soft4125%+8.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton700%−7.00
Newton Abbot500%−5.00
Taunton400%−4.00
Chepstow4125%−2.33
Hereford3133.3%+9.00
Stratford200%−2.00
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Exeter2150%+1.75
Fontwell200%−2.00
Aintree200%−2.00
Warwick100%−1.00
Worcester100%−1.00
Ffos Las100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 417211.8%−3.33
Class 51100%−11.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 62150%+1.75
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%1.18−0.33
2nd–3rd fav5120%1.25−1.25
4th–6th fav1516.7%1.03−3.00
7th+ in betting1500%0.00−15.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m12216.7%+1.67
2m5f – 3m10110%−6.25
2m1f – 2m4f900%−9.00
Over 3m600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
201511100%+2.75
2016100%−1.00
2017200%−2.00
2018200%−2.00
2025100%−1.00
20263026.7%−16.33
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1500%−15.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1715.9%−13.25
11-13 runners1119.1%+1.00
5-7 runners6116.7%−4.33
17+ runners200%−2.00
14-16 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 6 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0202501100·000·
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 631 runs since 2018 (69 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.7% from 102.
Passing Glance (GB)40% · 2–5
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,565 runs since 2008 (294 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,061 runs since 2010 (236 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 7.8% from 166.
Pillar Coral (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 5.4% of 295 runs since 2022 (49 horses). Strongest on Good going: 8.4% from 107.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 37 archived runs · newest first
Every one of I Chanin's 37 archived runners, from 5 May 2015 to 4 November 2026, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is I Chanin's strike rate?
I Chanin has won 3 of 37 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is I Chanin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is I Chanin's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 37 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
I Chanin·SR 8.1%·A/E 1.02
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