What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?

Lorcan Williams has won 99 of 770 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 11 wins from 51 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?

Jeremy Scott, with 315 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (13.7%).

Is Lorcan Williams in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 767 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lorcan Williams

770 rides in the last 5 seasons · 373 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2022

99–770

Wins / Runs

12.9%

Strike rate

n=770

252 (33%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=767 · 0.85 incl. margin

−170.25

£1 level stake

n=769 at SP · −22.1%

£2.13m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (109 rides). Rides mostly for Jeremy Scott — 41% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 770 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 35.2% when favourite Jeremy Scott: 13.7% from 315 LTO winners: 16.5% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (21.6%, n=51) and Exeter (20.5%, n=83) — all clear of the rider's 12.9% baseline. It is weakest at Newton Abbot (8.1% over 37 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.5% (n=109, Fair A/E 0.77), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.9% (n=101, Fair A/E 0.82). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 8.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −118.04 to a £1 stake over 235 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jeremy Scott supplies 41% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.7%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (16.4%, n=232). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 6.3% over 112 rides, 6.6pts below the baseline. 10 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy at Cheltenham (Mar 2025, £255,006). The standout partner of the record: Golden Ace (GB) — 7 wins from 17 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.5%−1.4

n=322 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −83.51

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.5%+3.6

n=109 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −22.29

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.9%−4.0

n=235 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −118.04

When favourite

35.2%

n=88 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −11.43

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

50%+37.1

n=2 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +2.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.9%−7.0

n=101 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −58.51

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.8%+1.9

n=54 · A/E 0.93 · £1 +36.14

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Taunton 21.6% vs 12.9% · n=51

At Exeter 20.5% vs 12.9% · n=83

Off a break of 180+ days 6.3% vs 12.9% · n=112

With C&D winners 20% vs 12.9% · n=55

In Chase races 16.4% vs 12.9% · n=232

At Newton Abbot 8.1% vs 12.9% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 449 49 10.9% −72.95

Chase 232 38 16.4% −56.39

NH Flat 89 12 13.5% −40.91

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 262 31 11.8% −92.56

Good to Soft 258 28 10.9% −26.04

Soft 154 25 16.2% −22.92

Heavy 92 14 15.2% −26.02

Good to Firm 3 1 33.3% −1.71

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 99 14 14.1% −39.13

Exeter 83 17 20.5% −1.89

Wincanton 81 9 11.1% −27.14

Taunton 51 11 21.6% +10.67

Warwick 40 4 10% −21.00

Newton Abbot 37 3 8.1% −22.25

Ffos Las 33 3 9.1% −22.25

Hereford 27 3 11.1% −6.42

Newbury 26 4 15.4% −7.50

Fontwell 25 3 12% +46.48

Ascot 23 5 21.7% −1.25

Worcester 22 1 4.5% −18.25

Uttoxeter 20 0 0% −20.00

Cheltenham 17 3 17.6% +21.44

Stratford 16 1 6.3% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 313 39 12.5% −52.54

Class 5 193 22 11.4% −93.29

Class 3 138 22 15.9% −31.25

Class 1 63 9 14.3% +37.14

Class 2 61 7 11.5% −28.31

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 102 34 33.3% 0.96 −14.68

2nd–3rd fav 215 41 19.1% 1.07 −27.57

4th–6th fav 254 18 7.1% 0.92 −42.50

7th+ in betting 198 5 2.5% 0.84 −85.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

81.8% completed · 681 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 232 74.6% 6 5 45 2 1

Hurdle 449 85.5% 4 9 49 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Golden Ace (GB) 17 7 12 22 Oct 26

Champagne Court (IRE) 13 2 5 31 Aug 24

Joe Cotton (IRE) 12 1 8 16 Jan 26

Leissieres Express (GB) 12 3 6 6 Dec 24

Petticoat Lucy (IRE) 11 2 2 22 Nov 24

Champagne Chic (IRE) 9 2 3 24 Oct 26

Elusiveness (IRE) 9 3 4 18 Oct 25

Stormy Flight (IRE) 9 0 2 4 Feb 25

Lady Kk (IRE) 9 2 4 30 Nov 23

Badentaggart (IRE) 8 0 0 26 Mar 26

Celtic Art (FR) 8 2 3 23 Mar 26

Zainy Champ (IRE) 8 1 2 25 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 373 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

15917141418001110818

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJeremy Scott

41% of all rides
13.7% SR · A/E 1.11

TrainerRWSR£1

Jeremy Scott 315 43 13.7% −34.47

Paul Nicholls 210 33 15.7% −63.23

Ben Pauling 30 3 10% −13.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

177

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.07m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 27 wins

Golden Ace (GB) — Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2025 · Grade 1

£255,006

Truckers Lodge (IRE) — Marston's 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (Listed Open Handicap Chase) Uttoxeter · Mar 2020 · Listed

£84,478

Golden Ace (GB) — BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Newcastle · Nov 2025 · Grade 1

£69,669

Notable horses

Golden Ace (GB) Gone Platinum (IRE) Monsieur Gibraltar (FR) Champagne Court (IRE) Petticoat Lucy (IRE) Leissieres Express (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 14.7% · 5–34

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,751 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Shirocco (GER) 18.2% · 6–33

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,180 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Kapgarde (FR) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,629 runs since 2008 (725 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,274 runs since 2012 (538 horses).

Telescope (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,911 runs since 2019 (296 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 105. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13% from 284.

Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,851 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,384 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,384 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 November 2015 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Worcester Beauty In The Park (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 11/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Grand Garcon (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 11/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Champagne Chic (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 8th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Golden Ace (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Panoramic Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4F

21 Oct 26 Fontwell Lakeview Lass (GB)T: Jeremy Scott tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 40/1

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Havanotherguinness (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot The Four Sixes (IRE)T: Chester Williams Konsileo Local Award Winning Commercial Insurer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 5th 13/2

12 Oct 26 Worcester Pop's Folly (IRE)T: Georgina Nicholls Richard Davis Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Haas Boy (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet Born In Wales Seniors' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 15/2

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Poet's Muse (IRE)T: I Chanin Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran F 33/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Princess Day (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Dragonbet / Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Ebf Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 4/6F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Saint Canary Rock (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jupiter Allen (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Great Dance (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 9/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Tenter Le Tout (FR)T: Chester Williams Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 11/2

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Clear Sky (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 33/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Detroit Bay (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 250/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Pepper Fizz (GB)T: Georgina Nicholls Attheraces.com/marketmovers Juvenile Hurdle (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 18/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Lakeview Lass (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Free Tips On attheraces.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 200/1

25 Sep 26 Worcester Loki's Mischief (FR)T: Chester Williams Copybet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 7th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?: Lorcan Williams has won 99 of 770 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 11 wins from 51 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?: Jeremy Scott, with 315 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (13.7%).
Is Lorcan Williams in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 767 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.