What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?

Lorcan Williams has won 99 of 768 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 11 wins from 51 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?

Jeremy Scott, with 315 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (13.7%).

Is Lorcan Williams in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 765 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lorcan Williams

768 rides in the last 5 seasons · 371 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 8 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2022

99–768

Wins / Runs

12.9%

Strike rate

n=768

252 (33%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=765 · 0.86 incl. margin

−168.25

£1 level stake

n=767 at SP · −21.9%

£2.13m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (109 rides). Rides mostly for Jeremy Scott — 41% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 768 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 35.2% when favourite Jeremy Scott: 13.7% from 315 LTO winners: 16.5% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (21.6%, n=51) and Exeter (20.5%, n=83) — all clear of the rider's 12.9% baseline. It is weakest at Newton Abbot (8.1% over 37 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.5% (n=109, Fair A/E 0.77), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6% (n=100, Fair A/E 0.82). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 9% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −116.04 to a £1 stake over 233 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jeremy Scott supplies 41% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.7%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (16.5%, n=230). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 6.4% over 110 rides, 6.5pts below the baseline. 10 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy at Cheltenham (Mar 2025, £255,006). The standout partner of the record: Golden Ace (GB) — 7 wins from 17 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.6%−1.3

n=320 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −81.51

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.5%+3.6

n=109 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −22.29

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9%−3.9

n=233 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −116.04

When favourite

35.2%

n=88 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −11.43

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

50%+37.1

n=2 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +2.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

6%−6.9

n=100 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −57.51

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.8%+1.9

n=54 · A/E 0.93 · £1 +36.14

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Taunton 21.6% vs 12.9% · n=51

At Exeter 20.5% vs 12.9% · n=83

Off a break of 180+ days 6.4% vs 12.9% · n=110

With C&D winners 20% vs 12.9% · n=55

In Chase races 16.5% vs 12.9% · n=230

At Newton Abbot 8.1% vs 12.9% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 449 49 10.9% −72.95

Chase 230 38 16.5% −54.39

NH Flat 89 12 13.5% −40.91

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 262 31 11.8% −92.56

Good to Soft 256 28 10.9% −24.04

Soft 154 25 16.2% −22.92

Heavy 92 14 15.2% −26.02

Good to Firm 3 1 33.3% −1.71

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 99 14 14.1% −39.13

Exeter 83 17 20.5% −1.89

Wincanton 81 9 11.1% −27.14

Taunton 51 11 21.6% +10.67

Warwick 40 4 10% −21.00

Newton Abbot 37 3 8.1% −22.25

Ffos Las 33 3 9.1% −22.25

Hereford 27 3 11.1% −6.42

Newbury 26 4 15.4% −7.50

Fontwell 25 3 12% +46.48

Ascot 23 5 21.7% −1.25

Worcester 20 1 5% −16.25

Uttoxeter 20 0 0% −20.00

Cheltenham 17 3 17.6% +21.44

Stratford 16 1 6.3% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 311 39 12.5% −50.54

Class 5 193 22 11.4% −93.29

Class 3 138 22 15.9% −31.25

Class 1 63 9 14.3% +37.14

Class 2 61 7 11.5% −28.31

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 102 34 33.3% 0.96 −14.68

2nd–3rd fav 215 41 19.1% 1.07 −27.57

4th–6th fav 252 18 7.1% 0.93 −40.50

7th+ in betting 198 5 2.5% 0.84 −85.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

81.9% completed · 679 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 230 74.8% 6 5 44 2 1

Hurdle 449 85.5% 4 9 49 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Golden Ace (GB) 17 7 12 22 Oct 26

Champagne Court (IRE) 13 2 5 31 Aug 24

Joe Cotton (IRE) 12 1 8 16 Jan 26

Leissieres Express (GB) 12 3 6 6 Dec 24

Petticoat Lucy (IRE) 11 2 2 22 Nov 24

Champagne Chic (IRE) 9 2 3 24 Oct 26

Elusiveness (IRE) 9 3 4 18 Oct 25

Stormy Flight (IRE) 9 0 2 4 Feb 25

Lady Kk (IRE) 9 2 4 30 Nov 23

Badentaggart (IRE) 8 0 0 26 Mar 26

Celtic Art (FR) 8 2 3 23 Mar 26

Zainy Champ (IRE) 8 1 2 25 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 371 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 3

Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

15917141418001110818

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJeremy Scott

41% of all rides
13.7% SR · A/E 1.11

TrainerRWSR£1

Jeremy Scott 315 43 13.7% −34.47

Paul Nicholls 208 33 15.9% −61.23

Ben Pauling 30 3 10% −13.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

177

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.07m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 27 wins

Golden Ace (GB) — Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2025 · Grade 1

£255,006

Truckers Lodge (IRE) — Marston's 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (Listed Open Handicap Chase) Uttoxeter · Mar 2020 · Listed

£84,478

Golden Ace (GB) — BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Newcastle · Nov 2025 · Grade 1

£69,669

Notable horses

Golden Ace (GB) Gone Platinum (IRE) Monsieur Gibraltar (FR) Champagne Court (IRE) Petticoat Lucy (IRE) Leissieres Express (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 14.7% · 5–34

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,748 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Shirocco (GER) 18.2% · 6–33

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,177 runs since 2008 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Kapgarde (FR) 7.7% · 2–26

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,625 runs since 2008 (725 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,271 runs since 2008 (538 horses).

Telescope (IRE) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,905 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 105. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.1% from 283.

Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,846 runs since 2008 (942 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,382 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,382 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 November 2015 to 24 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Champagne Chic (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 8th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Golden Ace (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Panoramic Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4F

21 Oct 26 Fontwell Lakeview Lass (GB)T: Jeremy Scott tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 40/1

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Havanotherguinness (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot The Four Sixes (IRE)T: Chester Williams Konsileo Local Award Winning Commercial Insurer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 5th 13/2

12 Oct 26 Worcester Pop's Folly (IRE)T: Georgina Nicholls Richard Davis Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Haas Boy (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet Born In Wales Seniors' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 15/2

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Poet's Muse (IRE)T: I Chanin Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran F 33/1

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Princess Day (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Dragonbet / Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Ebf Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 4/6F

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Saint Canary Rock (IRE)T: Jeremy Scott Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jupiter Allen (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Great Dance (FR)T: Chester Williams Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 9/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Tenter Le Tout (FR)T: Chester Williams Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 11/2

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Clear Sky (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 33/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Detroit Bay (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 250/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Pepper Fizz (GB)T: Georgina Nicholls Attheraces.com/marketmovers Juvenile Hurdle (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 18/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Lakeview Lass (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Free Tips On attheraces.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 200/1

25 Sep 26 Worcester Loki's Mischief (FR)T: Chester Williams Copybet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 7th 7/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Clear Sky (GB)T: Jeremy Scott Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 10th 40/1

09 Jun 26 Southwell Danger Nap (IRE)T: Jonjo & A J O'Neill Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Lorcan Williams's strike rate?: Lorcan Williams has won 99 of 768 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.9% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lorcan Williams do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 11 wins from 51 rides (21.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lorcan Williams ride most for?: Jeremy Scott, with 315 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (13.7%).
Is Lorcan Williams in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lorcan Williams's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 765 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.