Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.2
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.8%−1.4
n=52 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −17.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 412.9% vs 5.2% · n=31
In Class 50% vs 5.2% · n=39
In Hurdle races7.4% vs 5.2% · n=54
With Conor Ring2.9% vs 5.2% · n=34
With claiming riders up3.8% vs 5.2% · n=52 · A/E 0.71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5447.4%−5.50
Chase1500%−15.00
NH Flat800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3525.7%+0.00
Good to Firm1516.7%−10.50
Soft1100%−11.00
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Heavy6116.7%+3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Worcester1500%−15.00
Stratford9111.1%+0.00
Ludlow8225%+5.50
Warwick700%−7.00
Hereford7114.3%+19.00
Ffos Las600%−6.00
Uttoxeter400%−4.00
Newton Abbot400%−4.00
Bangor-on-Dee300%−3.00
Chepstow300%−3.00
Fontwell300%−3.00
Taunton200%−2.00
Wincanton200%−2.00
Market Rasen100%−1.00
Lingfield100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 53900%−39.00
Class 431412.9%+17.50
Class 6400%−4.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav10110%0.71−5.50
4th–6th fav26311.5%1.61+18.00
7th+ in betting4100%0.00−41.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m3725.4%−23.50
Over 3m2015%+6.00
1m5f – 2m1000%−10.00
2m1f – 2m4f10110%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20083133.3%+6.00
2010300%−3.00
20114125%+0.50
20123133.3%+6.00
2013500%−5.00
20151000%−10.00
20161300%−13.00
20175120%+21.00
2018900%−9.00
20191300%−13.00
2020200%−2.00
2021500%−5.00
2022200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4812.1%−39.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2528%−7.00
11-13 runners2100%−21.00
14-16 runners1600%−16.00
5-7 runners10110%+16.00
2-4 runners4125%+0.50
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 4 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 4 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000250009013170
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
4
Archived wins
£32,410
Prize money
2017
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lesdream (GB) — Freda Roberts 90th Birthday Claiming Hurdle Stratford · Aug 2008 · Class 4
£3,903
Sohappyharry (GB) — Racing Welfare Novices' Handicap Hurdle Ludlow · Apr 2012 · Class 4
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,061 runs since 2008 (236 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 7.8% from 166.
Sir Harry Lewis (USA)14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.
Morpeth (GB)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 5.7% of 298 runs since 2008 (43 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 87 · newest first
The latest 50 of 87 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 April 2006 to 15 February 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Jane Mathias's strike rate?
Jane Mathias has won 4 of 77 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Jane Mathias's Fair A/E?
0.91, from 77 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Jane Mathias·SR 5.2%·A/E 0.91
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