Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.7
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
50%+45.3
n=2 · A/E 5.67 · £1 +3.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 4.30 · £1 +2.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.7
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2713.7%−21.50
Chase1516.7%−11.25
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1900%−19.00
Good to Soft1100%−11.00
Soft10110%−4.50
Heavy3133.3%+0.75
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell500%−5.00
Uttoxeter400%−4.00
Plumpton300%−3.00
Taunton300%−3.00
Newton Abbot300%−3.00
Wincanton300%−3.00
Sandown200%−2.00
Stratford200%−2.00
Warwick200%−2.00
Haydock2150%+3.50
Exeter2150%+1.75
Market Rasen100%−1.00
Aintree100%−1.00
Leicester100%−1.00
Hereford100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 51900%−19.00
Class 41218.3%−6.50
Class 36116.7%−2.25
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%4.30+2.75
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav1218.3%1.05−6.50
7th+ in betting2100%0.00−21.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m1417.1%−8.50
Over 3m1218.3%−8.25
2m1f – 2m4f900%−9.00
1m5f – 2m800%−8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222613.8%−20.50
20231600%−16.00
202411100%+2.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2514%−21.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners1218.3%−6.50
8-10 runners1218.3%−8.25
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
14-16 runners600%−6.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 12 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 12 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 10 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard, most often for Mrs Sara V Bradstock (2); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
01100000·0·330
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Coneygree (GB) — Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2015 · Class 1
£313,225
Carruthers (GB) — Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Nov 2011 · Class 1
£85,425
Step Back (IRE) — bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Sandown · Apr 2018 · Grade 3
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,851 runs since 2008 (351 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 148.
Sulamani (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 633 · newest first
The latest 50 of 633 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 23 February 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mark Bradstock's strike rate?
Mark Bradstock has won 2 of 43 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mark Bradstock's Fair A/E?
0.60, from 43 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mark Bradstock·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.60
KTB
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