Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). In Group and Graded company the record reads 14% (36 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 516 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Nov–Feb40.6% when favouriteNico de Boinville: 14.6% from 137Claiming riders: 10.9%Group/Graded: 13.9%Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read
In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 13.9% (n=36, Fair A/E 1.13), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.2% (n=212, Fair A/E 0.67). Nico de Boinville rides 27% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14.6% vs 10.1%, A/E 1.27) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Heavy going (20.9%, n=67) and in Class 1 (18%, n=61). The record reads poorly in Class 5 — 2.9% over 103 runners, 7.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.46 across 108 runners (3.7% strike, −89.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2015, £313,225). The stable star of the record: Carruthers (GB) — 10 wins from 41 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.2%−4.9
n=212 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −150.82
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%−3.0
n=14 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
7.8%−2.3
n=51 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
9.4%−0.7
n=32 · A/E 1.45 · £1 −7.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
7.7%−2.4
n=13 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
40.6%
n=32 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −1.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.9%+0.8
n=128 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −48.54
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
13.9%+3.8
n=36 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −16.54
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners26.9% vs 10.1% · n=52
On Heavy going20.9% vs 10.1% · n=67
In Class 52.9% vs 10.1% · n=103
In Class 118% vs 10.1% · n=61
Off a break of 180+ days3.7% vs 10.1% · n=108
In NH Flat races3.8% vs 10.1% · n=80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle247239.3%−104.94
Chase1802614.4%−20.37
NH Flat8033.8%−56.50
Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good186126.5%−103.66
Good to Soft125118.8%−48.39
Soft1011413.9%−11.24
Heavy671420.9%+0.48
Good to Firm2913.4%−20.00
Standard (AW)800%−8.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham4137.3%−21.90
Fontwell40410%−2.17
Uttoxeter3738.1%−11.00
Exeter3139.7%−16.42
Warwick28517.9%+5.33
Newbury26519.2%+2.13
Plumpton26311.5%−7.09
Chepstow2528%−16.00
Southwell2100%−21.00
Worcester2129.5%−10.00
Towcester1700%−17.00
Ffos Las16637.5%+16.13
Stratford1500%−15.00
Kempton1516.7%−10.67
Newton Abbot1300%−13.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41892111.1%−50.80
Class 510332.9%−81.17
Class 3651015.4%−17.40
Class 1611118%+0.31
Class 65323.8%−34.00
Class 245511.1%−7.75
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite391538.5%1.22−0.30
2nd–3rd fav1081917.6%1.07−17.01
4th–6th fav158159.5%1.38−11.50
7th+ in betting21131.4%0.48−162.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m1942613.4%−58.01
2m1f – 2m4f152127.9%−66.26
1m5f – 2m8944.5%−61.67
Over 3m721013.9%+4.13
1m2f – 1m4f400%−4.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200838410.5%+13.22
20095159.8%−29.91
20104237.1%−21.50
201136513.9%+22.50
201228414.3%−8.02
201328414.3%−10.00
201427414.8%−6.17
201521628.6%+11.88
20162827.1%−17.00
20173712.7%−27.00
201835617.1%−12.22
20192514%−20.50
20203638.3%−23.17
20214124.9%−29.17
20222613.8%−20.50
20231600%−16.00
202411100%+2.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2442811.5%−70.89
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1431711.9%−28.12
11-13 runners13043.1%−98.00
5-7 runners992020.2%+0.57
14-16 runners8022.5%−51.00
17+ runners4648.7%−7.50
2-4 runners18527.8%−6.76
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 74 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 50 had their first archived run for this yard.
17 have since run for another yard, most often for Mrs Sara V Bradstock (3) and Seamus Mullins (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
121610105550531512
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
64
Archived wins
6
Pattern / graded wins
£1.47m
Prize money
2018
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Coneygree (GB) — Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2015 · Class 1
£313,225
Carruthers (GB) — Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Nov 2011 · Class 1
£85,425
Step Back (IRE) — bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Sandown · Apr 2018 · Grade 3
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Alflora (IRE)11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).
Taipan (IRE)22.2% · 6–27
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,212 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.6% from 159. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 6% from 133.
Indian River (FR)19.2% · 5–26
Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,381 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8% from 224.
Oscar (IRE)13.6% · 3–22
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 633 · newest first
The latest 50 of 633 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 23 February 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mark Bradstock's strike rate?
Mark Bradstock has won 52 of 516 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mark Bradstock do best at?
Fontwell by strike rate: 4 wins from 40 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Mark Bradstock?
Nico de Boinville, with 137 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (14.6%).
What is Mark Bradstock's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 515 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mark Bradstock·SR 10.1%·A/E 1.10
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