Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.1%+0.0
n=11 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
33.3%+24.2
n=3 · A/E 3.79 · £1 +3.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+15.9
n=4 · A/E 3.89 · £1 +2.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−9.1
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good8112.5%−1.50
Good to Soft7114.3%−4.00
Soft600%−6.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Catterick5120%−2.00
Sedgefield300%−3.00
Wetherby300%−3.00
Cartmel300%−3.00
Hexham3133.3%+3.50
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Carlisle100%−1.00
Musselburgh100%−1.00
Huntingdon100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 61218.3%−9.00
Class 5600%−6.00
Class 44125%+2.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav8225%1.83+1.50
4th–6th fav1000%0.00−10.00
7th+ in betting400%0.00−4.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Over 3m1119.1%−8.00
2m5f – 3m10110%−3.50
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2012100%−1.00
2015200%−2.00
2016300%−3.00
2017200%−2.00
2019400%−4.00
2020100%−1.00
2021400%−4.00
20223133.3%+0.00
20252150%+4.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners8112.5%−1.50
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners4125%−1.00
11-13 runners300%−3.00
14-16 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 6 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 6 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 5 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Great Notions (FR) — Paxtons Heart Of All England Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Heart Of All England Trophy) Hexham · May 2025 · Class 4
£4,278
Absainte (FR) — Support Jack Berry House Maiden Hunters' Chase Catterick · Mar 2022 · Class 6
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.
Saint Des Saints (FR)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 15% of 5,359 runs since 2008 (643 horses).
Great Pretender (IRE)50% · 1–2
Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,550 runs since 2010 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.
Alderbrook (GB)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 25 archived runs · newest first
Every one of R Tate's 25 archived runners, from 23 April 2006 to 28 May 2025, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is R Tate's strike rate?
R Tate has won 2 of 22 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
R Tate·SR 9.1%·A/E 1.25
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