2:15 Hamilton
This Class 4 EBF Maiden Stakes over the minimum trip at Hamilton brings together five two-year-olds with limited racecourse experience between them. The going is Soft, which adds a layer of uncertainty given that four of the five runners are unproven on such ground. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 53 and 42, underlining how open the contest looks on what little public form exists.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. By Jove Grace is the only one with a prominent run-style and medium confidence attached, so he could end up dictating a sensible gallop from draw four. The key question is whether the three held-up types can produce their efforts at the right time on this stiff five furlongs without the race falling into their lap.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Havana Cohiba KTB Selection53/100
Havana Cohiba brings the highest KTB Fit rating of 53 into the race despite having only a single run on which to base any assessment. He shaped with some promise when making his debut over six furlongs and now drops back to five for the first time, a move that poses a fresh question. Christopher Kellett holds a 12% strike rate at Hamilton from 41 runs with an A/E of 1.27, while Paul Mulrennan's 14% strike rate from 902 rides here carries an A/E of 0.87. The colt is unproven on soft ground and has no previous course form, yet the combination of yard and jockey records at the track offers some encouragement in a race short on solid benchmarks.
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2Queen of Tears51/100
Queen of Tears carries a KTB Fit rating of 51 after finishing sixth on her debut over this trip, where she showed only modest early speed. Tim Easterby has a 14% strike rate at Hamilton from 638 runs with an A/E of 0.91, and David Allan matches that 14% figure from 479 rides here with an A/E of 0.96. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, though that reading rests on limited evidence and low confidence. The filly remains unproven on soft ground with no course form to speak of, leaving her very much an unknown at this stage despite the trainer and jockey's respectable local records.
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3Kumharas49/100
Kumharas is rated 49 on the KTB Fit scale after showing only modest form when fifth on his debut over this distance. Richard and Peter Fahey have a 12% strike rate at Hamilton from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.92, a figure matched by Billy Garritty from his 127 rides here. The colt is held up and usually produces his effort late, again on limited evidence with low confidence attached. He has one run on soft ground without placing and holds no course form, so everything beyond that debut remains unknown.
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4By Jove Grace47/100
By Jove Grace is the most exposed in the line-up with three runs, showing modest but consistent form including two seconds at this trip. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard has a 12% strike rate at Hamilton from 33 runs, yet Warren Fentiman is less effective here with a 4% strike rate from 25 rides and an A/E of 0.34. He is unproven on soft ground, races prominently, and has no course form on record.
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5Mrs Blue42/100
Mrs Blue showed some promise when finishing third on her only start so far, though the small sample makes it hard to be certain about her level and the form reads with caution. Daniel Tudhope has an 18% strike rate at Hamilton from 477 rides with an A/E of 0.89, while Ollie Sangster's record here is limited to two runs with a 0% strike rate. She is unproven on soft ground and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Havana Cohiba is the KTB Selection. His debut promise over six furlongs, combined with the drop to the minimum trip and the solid Hamilton records of both trainer and jockey, gives him the edge in a race where so little is known about most of the runners. The main dangers are likely to come from Queen of Tears, who can build on her debut for a yard and jockey that know their way around here, and Kumharas, who represents a trainer-jockey combination with matching 12% strike rates at the track. By Jove Grace brings the most experience but faces questions over both the ground and the booking, while Mrs Blue remains hard to weigh up on just one run.
KTB Selection Havana Cohiba
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Havana Cohiba | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Queen of Tears | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Kumharas | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| By Jove Grace | 4/6 | Bet365 |
| Mrs Blue | 7/2 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:15 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Havana Cohiba the selection despite only one run?
His debut shaped with some promise over 6f, the drop to 5f poses a fresh question but the trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Hamilton.
How is the race expected to be run?
It lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse is unproven on soft ground?
Havana Cohiba, Queen of Tears, By Jove Grace and Mrs Blue have no runs on soft; Kumharas has one run on soft with no win or place.
Who has the best recent form in the field?
By Jove Grace with form figures 252 including two seconds at this trip.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton?
Daniel Tudhope with an 18% strike rate from 477 rides.
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