1:05 Worcester
This Class 3 handicap steeplechase over 2m7f at Worcester on good ground brings together a compact field of six where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Dartan tops the ratings on 67 with King Roly only a point behind on 66, while Karnaval Point and Awaythelad follow on 58 and 55 respectively. The race features several horses dropping or stepping in class, with recent form that suggests a competitive renewal despite the small field.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure. Snipe is the only horse whose run-style is listed as front-runner and he is therefore expected to bowl along in uncontested fashion. The other five principals are all held-up types who produce their effort late, which sets up a key question of whether the leader can steal it or if the closers will be able to reel him in on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Dartan KTB Selection67/100
Dartan is a high-class performer with a solid career record who arrives here off a string of competitive runs in stronger company. He drops back from 3m to a trip where he has placed without winning, while his record on good ground reads a respectable five wins from 18 starts. The Sarah Humphrey yard records a modest 8% strike-rate at Worcester from 38 runners, though that is offset by Sean Bowen's strong 22% strike-rate from his 456 rides at the track. With an official rating of 130 and recent form figures of 20329-, he is dropping in class which looks a positive. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those trying to close on the predicted lone leader in the straight.
-
2King Roly66/100
King Roly is high-class on the figures and has a solid record here with two wins from four runs at Worcester. He has won twice at today's trip and boasts a strong six-from-15 strike rate on good ground. The Mickey Bowen yard posts an 18% strike rate at the track from 50 runs while James Bowen is even stronger on 23% from 166 rides. Carrying an official rating of 125 and with recent form figures of -P2912, he is another who will be held up before delivering his effort late. With the trainer and jockey both holding healthy records at Worcester, he is entitled to go well in a race where the pace may not be strong.
-
3Karnaval Point58/100
Karnaval Point is a high-class performer with solid course connections, including a win from three runs at Worcester and a strong recent record that includes placed efforts in competitive company. He has two wins from six runs on good ground and the David Pipe yard has a respectable 14% strike rate here from a large sample of 548 runs. With an official rating of 122 and recent form figures of 316356, he is dropping in class which could be beneficial. Stepping up to 2m7f for the first time in a while asks a fresh question as he has been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at the trip. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he will be another looking to come from off the pace against the predicted lone leader.
-
4Awaythelad55/100
Awaythelad is a smart performer who has been largely out of form for some time with four pulled-up efforts from his last six starts. He drops back to 2m7f where he has been placed but never won, and his record on good ground is similar with two placed efforts from five starts but no win. The Ben Pauling yard and Ben Jones combine with solid Worcester records of 18% and 13% respectively. Rated 115 with recent form figures of 4/P7P-, he is stepping up in class which adds to the difficulty of the task. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need to rediscover his best form if he is to feature.
-
5Snipe55/100
Snipe is a high-class performer on his day with solid recent form including two seconds this season. He has been a regular at Worcester yet has only managed two fourth-place finishes from two runs here and drops back in trip today having failed to win in two previous attempts at this distance. The Skelton team are well established at the track with useful strike rates for both trainer and jockey.
-
6Badbury Rings52/100
Badbury Rings is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins earlier this year. He drops back in trip to 2m7f today which asks a fresh question, though the move looks logical on pedigree and previous racing. Mulholland and O'Farrell both hold solid records at Worcester.
KTB verdict
Dartan is the KTB Selection. He arrives off a string of competitive runs in stronger company, is dropping in class, and has a respectable record on good ground along with the benefit of a top jockey booking in Sean Bowen. His held-up style should see him delivered late against what is likely to be an uncontested lead. The main dangers are headed by King Roly, who has a strong Worcester record and a fine strike rate at the trip on this ground, while Karnaval Point's course win and recent placed form also make him a live contender. Awaythelad will need to bounce back from some poor efforts but cannot be entirely ruled out on his best days.
KTB Selection Dartan
This is the narrative read of the 1:05 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Snipe is the only front-runner in the field and the pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All four principals — Dartan, King Roly, Karnaval Point and Awaythelad — are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Worcester?
James Bowen has a 23% strike rate at Worcester from 166 rides, the highest among the jockeys in this race.
Has Karnaval Point won over this trip before?
No, he has been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at 2m7f and is stepping up to the distance for the first time in a while.
Which trainer has the largest sample of runners at Worcester?
David Pipe with 548 runs and a 14% strike rate at the track.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies