3:00 Plumpton
This Class 5 handicap steeplechase over 2m3f166y at Plumpton features a small field of just five runners on ground yet to be confirmed. The KTB Fit scores range from 59 down to 36, indicating a modest contest where consistency and suitability to conditions could prove decisive. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position is likely to be important.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without the pace being too slow. Mid-division runner Kadex may settle just off the others, but the race is likely to revolve around timing a challenge in the final stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Expert Analysis KTB Selection59/100
Expert Analysis arrives with a KTB Fit score of 59 and is the selection. A useful performer, he has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts. The trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at Plumpton from 18 runs with an A/E of 1.06, though the jockey operates at a more modest 9% strike rate here from 22 rides with an A/E of 0.68. He is unproven on the ground and the trip remains a question having only tried this distance once without success. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will look to strike in a steadily-run affair.
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2Alidam54/100
Alidam is rated a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history and carries a KTB Fit score of 54. He has already tried this trip once without success and now steps up in trip again with first-time headgear applied. Connections know the track well, with the trainer holding a 33% strike rate at Plumpton from 18 runs and an A/E of 1.06, while the jockey has no record at the course. The going suitability remains unknown on just seven career runs. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and drops in class.
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3Yorgunnabeplucky52/100
Yorgunnabeplucky is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history with a KTB Fit score of 52. He drops back in trip today having last run over three miles and the shorter distance poses a fresh question. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Plumpton from two runs with an A/E of 1.7, but the jockey operates at a 6% strike rate here from 17 rides with an A/E of 0.43. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and remains unproven on the ground.
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4Kadex46/100
Kadex is a fair performer who knows his way around Plumpton having won here from four starts. He drops back in trip today after his last run over three and a half miles, though he has been unsuccessful in four previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 50 runs at the track while the jockey is still seeking a first Plumpton winner from 11 rides, and the horse remains unproven on the current ground. Typically settles in midfield.
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5Golly Gosh36/100
Golly Gosh is a fair performer who has shown more consistency of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on his only previous try at this distance while the ground remains an unknown. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Plumpton from 10 runs with an A/E of 0.56 and the jockey has a 13% strike rate here from 16 rides with an A/E of 0.7. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Expert Analysis is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts, he is backed by a trainer with a strong 33% strike rate at Plumpton. The selection can make the most of being held up in a steadily-run race where being handy pays. His main dangers are Alidam, who drops in class with first-time headgear, and Yorgunnabeplucky, who is a fair performer dropping back in trip.
KTB Selection Expert Analysis
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:15 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Expert Analysis | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Alidam | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Yorgunnabeplucky | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Kadex | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Golly Gosh | 4/6 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Plumpton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Plumpton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Plumpton results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Plumpton racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Plumpton?
Yorgunnabeplucky's trainer has a 50% strike rate at Plumpton from two runs with an A/E of 1.7.
How many of the runners are unproven on the ground?
All five runners are unproven on the ground.
Which horse is the only one with a course win at Plumpton?
Kadex has won here from four starts.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Expert Analysis is usually held up and produces its effort late.
Which runner is dropping in class?
Alidam is dropping in class.
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