Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.80). New recruits from other yards win at 11% first time out (55 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.
Deterministic profile computed from 154 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 9.4%Conor Ring: 8.2% from 61New recruits: 10.9%
The read
New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 10.9% (n=55, Fair A/E 1.16). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 23 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 7.8pts below the 7.8% baseline). Conor Ring rides 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.2%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (13.9%, n=36) and off a 15-30-day break (13.3%, n=30). The record reads poorly beyond 3m — 3.1% over 32 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.4%+1.6
n=53 · A/E 0.92 · £1 +1.88
New recruits · first run for the yard
10.9%+3.1
n=55 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +23.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
16.7%+8.9
n=6 · A/E 2.39 · £1 +4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
28.6%+20.8
n=7 · A/E 3.96 · £1 +20.00
When favourite
0%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.5%−0.3
n=53 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −11.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m13.9% vs 7.8% · n=36
Off a 15-30-day break13.3% vs 7.8% · n=30
Beyond 3m3.1% vs 7.8% · n=32
On Good going10.8% vs 7.8% · n=93
Over 2m1f – 2m4f4.3% vs 7.8% · n=46
With a new jockey booking11.1% vs 7.8% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase7468.1%−1.00
Hurdle6757.5%−23.12
NH Flat1317.7%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good931010.8%+12.88
Good to Soft2913.4%−19.00
Good to Firm1915.3%−13.00
Soft1200%−12.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot2813.6%−22.50
Ffos Las17211.8%+12.00
Worcester1616.3%−8.00
Hereford15213.3%+7.00
Chepstow1200%−12.00
Stratford1119.1%−5.00
Fontwell900%−9.00
Uttoxeter7114.3%+5.00
Plumpton4125%−1.62
Ludlow400%−4.00
Fakenham400%−4.00
Market Rasen300%−3.00
Ayr300%−3.00
Cartmel300%−3.00
Taunton3133.3%+2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 58578.2%−18.12
Class 44536.7%−25.00
Class 31300%−13.00
Class 26233.3%+29.00
Class 1500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite700%0.00−7.00
2nd–3rd fav26519.2%1.07+1.38
4th–6th fav8045%0.59−39.50
7th+ in betting4137.3%1.99+13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4624.3%−35.50
2m5f – 3m40410%−4.00
1m5f – 2m36513.9%+16.38
Over 3m3213.1%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps129118.5%−12.12
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6234.8%−36.00
5-7 runners5858.6%−15.50
2-4 runners13215.4%−1.62
11-13 runners1218.3%+7.00
14-16 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners11100%+22.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 63 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 52 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Evan Williams (50); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Quiet spell
0 from 230% · −7.8pts vs baseline
Last 14 days0%
5-season base7.8%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··11014118084··
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
13
Archived wins
£236k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 12 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ask Brewster (IRE) — Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£36,233
Oakley (GER) — bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Uttoxeter · Jun 2026 · Class 2
£10,562
Melton Mossy (IRE) — Welcome Back To Racing Caroline Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Wincanton · Mar 2026 · Class 4
Progeny have won 13.3% of 323 runs since 2008 (42 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 8.5% from 106.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 156 · newest first
The latest 50 of 156 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2006 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mrs C. Williams's strike rate?
Mrs C. Williams has won 12 of 154 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Mrs C. Williams?
Conor Ring, with 61 runners since 2022 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (8.2%).
Is Mrs C. Williams in form?
In the last 14 days: 23 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 7.8% since 2022.
What is Mrs C. Williams's Fair A/E?
0.80, from 154 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mrs C. Williams·SR 7.8%·A/E 0.80·Quiet
KTB
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