4:25 Kelso
A competitive Class 3 handicap chase over 2m1f at Kelso on good ground brings together five runners, all of whom hold strong claims on their best recent efforts. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with The Other Mozzie, Newtown Rambler and Coup de Coeur separated by just five points, underlining how little there is between the principals on the numbers. With strong pace anticipated and several front-runners declared, the race could set up for those able to settle and pounce late.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with confidence rated medium, driven by two or more habitual front-runners. Newtown Rambler, From The Clouds and Smoke Trail all tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the latter stages. That scenario would favour horses who settle in midfield and can produce their effort from off the pace, posing the key question of whether any of the prominent trio can sustain their effort or if the hold-up performers will be the ones to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1The Other Mozzie KTB Selection68/100
The Other Mozzie is a high-class performer on the best of his form and arrives here off an official rating of 135. He has won on good ground and at today's trip, though he was well held on his only previous run at Kelso. Trainer L J Morgan has a 19% strike rate at the track from 27 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while jockey Danny McMenamin matches that with a 14% strike rate from 269 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, he should be ideally placed if the strong pace materialises as expected. His recent form of 770F7- includes flashes of ability that support his lofty mark when things fall right.
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2Newtown Rambler67/100
Newtown Rambler is a high-class performer on the evidence of his recent form figures and official rating of 132. He arrives in excellent order after three straight wins before a last-time pull-up, and has shown he handles good ground with two wins and five places from six starts. The step up in trip is a fresh question while the trainer records a 9% strike rate at Kelso from 11 runs and the jockey a 38% strike rate from 13 rides. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to set a strong gallop in a race where that could prove testing late on. Dropping in class adds to his appeal as he seeks to bounce back from that latest disappointment.
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3Coup de Coeur63/100
Coup de Coeur is a high-class performer who won last time out and has solid recent form of U122-1. Three wins from ten starts at today's trip plus two from five on good ground give him a clear edge on both distance and conditions. Trainer's 15% strike rate at Kelso is above his overall figure while the jockey sits in line with his own course record. He typically settles in midfield, which looks advantageous given the strong pace likely to unfold. Having placed on his only previous visit to the track, he enters this contest with plenty in his favour on both trip and ground.
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4From The Clouds55/100
From The Clouds is a smart performer who arrives off a solid recent record and has already won twice at today's trip from just three attempts. The yard holds a 16% strike rate at Kelso from 114 runs, above their 9% elsewhere, while Jack Power posts a 21% strike rate here from 29 rides in line with his overall figure. First run at the track and no experience on good ground both remain unknowns. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he will help ensure the strong gallop that is anticipated.
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5Smoke Trail53/100
Smoke Trail is high-class on the ratings and has won both starts at Kelso. The yard's 16% strike rate here from 114 runs sits above their 9% elsewhere while Patrick Wadge matches his 16% course record from 128 rides. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried. Another who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he will be right up there early in what is expected to be a strongly-run affair.
KTB verdict
The Other Mozzie is the KTB Selection. A high-class performer on his best form and proven on good ground and at the trip, he looks well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late as the shape suggests. Settling in midfield should suit the anticipated race conditions, and the Morgan-McMenamin combination has shown it can deliver at this venue. Newtown Rambler and Coup de Coeur are the main dangers, the former arriving in fine heart and likely to force the pace while the latter boasts an excellent record at the trip and on the ground.
KTB Selection The Other Mozzie
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| The Other Mozzie | 8/1 | Midnite, 1:04am |
| Newtown Rambler | 11/4 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Coup de Coeur | 5/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| From The Clouds | 16/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Smoke Trail | 6/5 | Midnite, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Kelso. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kelso racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kelso results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kelso racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning sequence among the principals?
Newtown Rambler, who posted three straight wins before his last-time pull-up.
How many wins has Coup de Coeur recorded at today's trip?
Three wins from ten starts at today's trip.
Which runners are expected to contribute to the strong pace?
Newtown Rambler, From The Clouds and Smoke Trail all tend to make the running or race prominently.
What is Smoke Trail's record at Kelso?
Won here with two wins from two starts.
Which horse is stepping up in class from a recent solid record?
From The Clouds, who is stepping up in class having won twice at today's trip from just three attempts.
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