What is Adrian Keatley's strike rate?

Adrian Keatley has won 162 of 1,180 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.7% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Keatley do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 13 wins from 48 runners (27.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Keatley?

Oisin McSweeney, with 142 runners since 2022 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.8%).

Is Adrian Keatley in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Adrian Keatley's Fair A/E?

1.18, from 1,172 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Keatley

1,180 runners in the last 5 seasons · 158 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.6% of 285 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 2 Nov 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)

from 1 Jan 2022

162–1,180

Wins / Runs

13.7%

Strike rate

n=1,180

390 (33%)

Placed

1.18

Fair A/E

n=1,172 · 1.01 incl. margin

−246.13

£1 level stake

n=1,180 at SP · −20.9%

£2.70m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 240 runners a season, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.18). New recruits from other yards win at 24% first time out (50 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,180 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul Fresh horses: 14.9% 48.6% when favourite Oisin McSweeney: 14.8% from 142 New recruits: 24% Claiming riders: 14% Sends off the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (27.1%, n=48), clear of the yard's 13.7% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 24% (n=50, Fair A/E 1.59), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 5.8% (n=69, Fair A/E 0.62). Oisin McSweeney rides 12% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14.8%, A/E 1.42) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (27.3%, n=88) and over 1m5f – 2m (24.1%, n=191). 10 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas at Curragh (May 2016, £171,000). The stable star of the record: Kihavah (GB) — 9 wins from 47 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

14.9%+1.2

n=154 · A/E 1.48 · £1 −11.36

New recruits · first run for the yard

24%+10.3

n=50 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +7.26

Debutants · first career start

9.4%−4.3

n=85 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +18.70

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.3%−4.4

n=54 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −22.88

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.8%−7.9

n=69 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −33.12

When favourite

48.6%

n=138 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +46.40

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14%+0.3

n=328 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −35.45

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.5%−5.2

n=71 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −8.20

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Brian Hughes 30.9% vs 13.7% · n=68

With Henry Brooke 31.4% vs 13.7% · n=35

Off a 0-7-day break 27.3% vs 13.7% · n=88

On last-time-out winners 24.7% vs 13.7% · n=154

Over 1m5f – 2m 24.1% vs 13.7% · n=191

At Catterick 27.1% vs 13.7% · n=48

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 937 106 11.3% −296.49

Hurdle 201 43 21.4% +34.28

Chase 32 9 28.1% +4.88

NH Flat 10 4 40% +11.20

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 363 63 17.4% −14.33

Standard (AW) 264 27 10.2% −153.00

Good to Soft 189 31 16.4% +34.65

Good to Firm 171 16 9.4% −64.78

Soft 148 17 11.5% −30.40

Heavy 45 8 17.8% −18.27

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 105 13 12.4% −52.54

York 90 5 5.6% −26.75

Ayr 80 13 16.3% +11.82

Ripon 72 12 16.7% −10.57

Wolverhampton (AW) 60 1 1.7% −56.00

Doncaster 51 6 11.8% −12.12

Catterick 48 13 27.1% +55.75

Market Rasen 46 11 23.9% +13.88

Beverley 45 3 6.7% −31.67

Thirsk 41 2 4.9% −28.00

Pontefract 38 7 18.4% +6.02

Kempton (AW) 38 4 10.5% −15.00

Southwell (AW) 38 5 13.2% −19.09

Musselburgh 36 5 13.9% +5.50

Hamilton 30 4 13.3% −19.21

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 393 66 16.8% −57.71

Class 5 251 44 17.5% −30.38

Class 2 179 10 5.6% −103.55

Class 6 152 15 9.9% −52.29

Class 3 124 20 16.1% +12.25

Class 1 74 6 8.1% −11.20

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 153 70 45.8% 1.47 +41.65

2nd–3rd fav 267 55 20.6% 1.15 +0.72

4th–6th fav 367 30 8.2% 1.04 −37.50

7th+ in betting 393 7 1.8% 0.53 −251.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Another Baar (GB) 50 8 18 19 Oct 26

Belvedere Blast (IRE)from Nigel Tinkler 48 7 13 26 Sep 26

Wobwobwob (IRE) 45 4 13 27 Oct 26

Kihavah (GB)from K J Condon 43 9 18 24 May 26

Shalaa Asker (GB)then Charlie Wallis 40 6 13 29 Sep 24

Honour Your Dreams (FR)then Michael Appleby 35 2 11 27 Jun 24

Legendary Day (GB)from Hughie Morrison · then Barry Brennan 24 6 10 29 Jun 24

Dungar Glory (IRE) 24 3 6 21 Sep 23

Roberto Caro (IRE)from Seb Spencer 23 3 6 22 Oct 26

Gale Mahler (IRE) 23 8 11 19 Oct 25

Francisco's Piece (GB) 22 3 8 28 Sep 26

Satin Snake (GB)from Gerard O'Leary 20 3 9 4 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 158 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Hughie Morrison (3) and Seb Spencer (2); 36 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard; 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

3 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

29141014111915101210917

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderOisin McSweeney

12% of all rides
14.8% SR · A/E 1.42

RiderRWSR£1

Oisin McSweeney 142 21 14.8% −41.78

Ryan Sexton 117 15 12.8% −36.37

M. P. Sheehy 116 13 11.2% −40.56

Brian Hughes 68 21 30.9% +32.51

Henry Brooke 35 11 31.4% +28.06

P J McDonald 34 4 11.8% +13.63

Dougie Costello 34 3 8.8% −9.25

Connor Beasley 34 4 11.8% +6.63

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→

259

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.10m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 43 wins

Jet Setting (IRE) — Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) Curragh · May 2016 · Group 1

£171,000

Kihavah (GB) — Virgin Bet Queen's Cup (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Musselburgh · Apr 2025 · Class 2

£51,540

Jet Setting (IRE) — Coolmore Stud Home Of Champions Concorde Stakes (group 3) Tipperary · Oct 2016 · Group 3

£39,825

Notable horses

Kihavah (GB) Another Baar (GB) Drumconnor Lad (IRE) Gale Mahler (IRE) Aisling Oscar (IRE) Wobwobwob (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mayson (GB) 15.3% · 11–72

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,384 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Buratino (IRE) 14.6% · 7–48

Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,883 runs since 2020 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 119.

Prince Of Lir (IRE) 8.9% · 4–45

Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,383 runs since 2020 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.

Harbour Watch (IRE) 20.9% · 9–43

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,553 runs since 2016 (236 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.5% from 322. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.6% from 463.

Cotai Glory (GB) 9.8% · 4–41

Progeny have won 11.4% of 3,949 runs since 2021 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.6% from 1,416. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 427.

Shalaa (IRE) 15% · 6–40

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,443 runs since 2020 (279 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.8% from 142.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,417 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,417 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 May 2014 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Sledgehammer (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/5F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Star Material (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 14/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Vietnorm (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 8th 4/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Wobwobwob (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 6/1

24 Oct 26 Kelso Newtown Rambler (IRE)J: Oakley Brown luckytiger.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Nuts Well Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 4 ran 1st 5/2

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Indian River (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Masterson Holdings Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 3/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Wobwobwob (IRE)J: Barry McHugh William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Star Material (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 33/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Roberto Caro (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 6/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Rapide Vega (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 9/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Another Baar (GB)J: M. P. Sheehy William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 2/1F

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Tyrrhenian Thunder (GB)J: M. P. Sheehy British Stallion Studs Ebf Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 11/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Irish Incentive (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 13/2

10 Oct 26 Hexham Sledgehammer (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Tynedale Rfc Community Rugby Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 1st 15/8F

10 Oct 26 Hexham Tiddesley Wood (GB)J: Brian Hughes Cast Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 4th 6/4F

10 Oct 26 Newmarket Clash Of Hearts (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 6th 150/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Northern Milan (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Project Rugby Community Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 3 ran PU 7/4

09 Oct 26 York Influencer Man (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa Nursery Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 12/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Aisling Oscar (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Download The At The Races App Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jojo's Legacy (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 1) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adrian Keatley's strike rate?: Adrian Keatley has won 162 of 1,180 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.7% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Keatley do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 13 wins from 48 runners (27.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Keatley?: Oisin McSweeney, with 142 runners since 2022 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.8%).
Is Adrian Keatley in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Keatley's Fair A/E?: 1.18, from 1,172 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.