2:31 Newcastle
This Class 3 novices' limited handicap steeple chase at Newcastle over 2m7f91y on good ground brings together five runners, all aged six, in a race that looks competitive on official ratings ranging from 113 to 132. KTB's Fit Scores identify Dunkerque as the clear top pick on 72, ahead of Silver Hill on 68, with Kent de Thaix, Rocheval and Sleedagh trailing on 55, 54 and 39 respectively. The KTB numbers highlight strong course and going credentials for the principals while underlining several unknowns around the longer trip in a field where recent form is mixed.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting horses ridden close to the pace. Silver Hill, Rocheval and Sleedagh are all usually prominent or handy, which could see them take up positions early while the two held-up types, Dunkerque and Kent de Thaix, produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the race falls apart enough for the prominent runners to get away or if the closers can time their runs to best effect in what should be a steadily-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Dunkerque KTB Selection72/100
Dunkerque is high-class on the figures with an official rating of 132 and arrives in excellent order having shown recent form of 112123. He is 1 from 1 at Newcastle, where trainer Jennie Candlish holds a 23% strike rate from 116 runs, well above their record elsewhere, and the combination with Sean Quinlan has produced a 13% strike rate overall. The horse has won 5 from 9 on good ground, fitting the conditions perfectly, and the market will take note in a field of five. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that style should be well suited to the anticipated muddling pace. Dropping back in trip to this untried 2m7f poses a fresh question but he remains the one to beat on all known form.
-
2Silver Hill68/100
Silver Hill is a high-class performer who arrives in top form having won two of his last three starts, with recent figures of 51221. He has already shown his liking for this track when finishing second here on his only visit and trainer Jamie Snowden boasts a 24% strike rate at Newcastle from 17 runs. The partnership with Gavin Sheehan has been notably successful, with a 23% strike rate overall and the jockey himself holding a 37% record at the venue from 30 rides. He has won 2 from 3 on good ground, so the going is no issue, and he will race prominently, usually on or close to the lead. The step up to 2m7f is an unknown and the limited family record, with the dam having had one other runner that was not a winner, offers no strong clues, yet he still shapes as a major player.
-
3Kent de Thaix55/100
Kent de Thaix is high-class on his day with a solid official rating of 122 and recent form that includes two wins from seven starts, shown by figures of 1P516. He showed little at this track on his only visit when finishing fifth and now drops back in trip to 2m7f which he has never tried, asking a fresh question. First-time headgear is another unknown while the yard's 8% strike rate at Newcastle from 92 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere and the trainer-jockey combination shows a 13% strike rate. The half-brother to Grade 2 winner Jeu De Thaix and with a dam that has produced one other winner, he has a respectable pedigree. Usually held up, he will be produced late and that run-style could prove effective if the race develops tactically.
-
4Rocheval54/100
Rocheval is a smart performer who has mixed form over longer trips and now drops back in distance as a fresh question. Unproven on good ground having never raced on it and making a first appearance at Newcastle, the trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 43 runs which sits in line with their overall figure.
-
5Sleedagh39/100
Sleedagh is a smart performer on his figures with a solid recent record of 2339-5 that includes placed efforts in stronger company. He steps up in trip today for the first time having last run over 2m4f and has shown no win or place from two starts on good ground. The yard record a 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 43 runs in line with their 10% at other tracks.
KTB verdict
Dunkerque stands out as the KTB Selection. He is high-class on the figures, in excellent order, boasts a perfect record at Newcastle for a trainer who excels here, and has an excellent record on good ground. His held-up style should be ideally suited to the muddling, tactical pace that is anticipated. Silver Hill, with his course placings and prominent running, and Kent de Thaix, who brings respected pedigree and first-time headgear, are the main dangers in what remains an interesting small-field contest.
KTB Selection Dunkerque
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 11/4 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Silver Hill | 11/8 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Kent de Thaix | 7/2 | Bet Victor, 12:02am |
| Rocheval | 11/2 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Sleedagh | 14/1 | Bet Victor, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:31 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Newcastle?
Dunkerque is 1 from 1 at Newcastle, where trainer Jennie Candlish holds a 23% strike rate from 116 runs.
How does the pace shape influence the runners?
The muddling, tactical pace with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace, with prominent runners Silver Hill, Rocheval and Sleedagh likely to race handily while held-up types Dunkerque and Kent de Thaix produce late efforts.
What unknowns face the leading contenders?
Dunkerque and Silver Hill face questions about the step back or up to 2m7f which is untried, Kent de Thaix has first-time headgear and was poor on his only course visit, while Rocheval is unproven on good ground.
Which trainer has the strongest record at this track?
Jamie Snowden has a 24% strike rate at Newcastle from 17 runs, ahead of Jennie Candlish on 23% from 116 runs.
What does the family line tell us about Silver Hill?
The dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies