3:01 Newcastle
This Class 4 Go North Sea Pigeon Series qualifier over 2m0f190y at Newcastle features a compact but competitive field of six on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top four, headed by North of Richmond on 75, with Max of Stars, Pyramid Place and Jentobello all rated in the 60s, while the remaining pair sit in the low 50s and high 40s. With only lightly-raced sorts and some exposed campaigners, the official ratings cluster tightly between 101 and 114, promising a race where class, trip suitability and how the strong pace unfolds will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Max of Stars and Jentobello. This setup could see the leaders go hard early and the race collapse late, playing to the strengths of hold-up performers who can deliver their effort from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and maintain enough of a cushion, or if the race will fall into the hands of patient hold-up types as the pace tells in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1North of Richmond KTB Selection75/100
North of Richmond arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit rating of 75 and carries an official rating of 114. A smart performer, he has won at this trip from three attempts and his recent form reads /134P-. Alex Hales sends him out with a 20% strike rate at Newcastle from ten runs, and Kielan Woods takes the ride boasting a 29% strike rate at the venue from 21 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he remains unproven on good ground having had no previous runs on it, while this will be his first start at the course. With only six career starts to date, data confidence remains high despite the unknown element regarding the surface.
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2Max of Stars67/100
Max of Stars is rated 67 on KTB Fit and carries an official rating of 112. A smart performer in solid form with two seconds from his last four starts, his recent figures read -442P4 and he is dropping in class. He has won five times at today's trip from 18 attempts and boasts a strong record on good ground with seven wins from 24 starts. Ollie Pears has a 15% strike rate at Newcastle from 71 runs, above his overall figure at other courses, while Jamie Hamilton rides with a 9% strike rate at the venue from 247 rides. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he has no course form on record.
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3Pyramid Place60/100
Pyramid Place is rated 60 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 106. A smart performer who arrives on a handy mark after a string of modest efforts, his recent form reads 58P-6P. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from four starts and has handled good ground well with three wins from 16 attempts. Tristan Davidson operates at a 15% strike rate at Newcastle from 39 runs, in line with his overall record, and Harry Reed takes the mount with a 10% strike rate at the track from 58 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, this is the horse's first run at Newcastle and the trainer-jockey combination shows a 17% strike rate together.
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4Jentobello60/100
Jentobello also rates 60 on KTB Fit and carries an official rating of 110. A smart performer in solid form after a win and a second on his last two starts, his recent figures read 23-421. He drops back from 2m5f to a trip he has already won over from just one attempt, and his record on good ground reads well with two wins and six places from seven starts. Iain Jardine has a 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 138 runs, in line with his overall record, while Brian Hughes rides with a 17% strike rate at the venue from 732 rides and the pair show a 16% strike rate together. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he has no course form on record.
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5Roarin' Success52/100
Roarin' Success is rated 52 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 103. A useful performer who has been consistent this year with three wins and regular placings from his last six starts, his recent form reads 511323. He has placed on his only visit to Newcastle, shown he handles good ground without winning on it, and the trip suits having won at it. Donald McCain has a 17% strike rate at Newcastle from 363 runs in line with his overall record, and Danny McMenamin rides with a 17% strike rate at the venue from 209 rides; the pair show a 13% strike rate together. Typically settles in midfield with medium confidence.
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6Hunters Spring48/100
Hunters Spring is rated 48 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 101. A useful performer who has already won over this trip and showed his best form when third here last time out, his recent form reads 43U-P3. He has a solid course record of one win from three runs and acts on good ground with one win from four starts. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore hold a 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 43 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while Patrick Wadge has a 16% strike rate at the venue from 76 rides and the team shows an 8% strike rate together. Typically settles in midfield with high confidence.
KTB verdict
North of Richmond stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a win at this trip already to his name and an official rating of 114, he is trained by Alex Hales who strikes at 20% at Newcastle, and the hold-up run style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is expected to unfold. The unknown of the good ground is the main query given his lack of experience on it, yet the overall profile and high data confidence make him the one to beat. Max of Stars, with his proven good-ground record, trip wins and prominent running style, is the most obvious danger, while Pyramid Place on a handy mark and Jentobello in current form cannot be dismissed in a race where late closers may capitalise if the front-runners overdo it.
KTB Selection North of Richmond
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| North of Richmond | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Max of Stars | 5/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Pyramid Place | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Jentobello | 5/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Roarin' Success | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Hunters Spring | 11/2 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:01 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the expected strong pace influence the chances of the hold-up runners?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses such as North of Richmond and Pyramid Place who usually produce their effort late.
Which horses have previous wins at today's trip?
North of Richmond has won at this trip from three attempts, Max of Stars has won five times at today's trip from 18 attempts, Pyramid Place has won at the trip twice from four starts, Jentobello has won over the trip from one attempt, Roarin' Success has won at it, and Hunters Spring has already won over this trip.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Newcastle in this field?
Alex Hales has a 20% strike rate at Newcastle from ten runs, Donald McCain has a 17% strike rate from 363 runs, Tristan Davidson has a 15% strike rate from 39 runs, Ollie Pears has a 15% strike rate from 71 runs, while Iain Jardine has 9% from 138 runs and Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have 9% from 43 runs.
Which runners have course form at Newcastle?
Roarin' Success has placed on his only visit to Newcastle having finished second, and Hunters Spring has a solid course record of one win from three runs including a third last time out; all other runners have no course form on record.
How many of these runners are proven on good ground?
Max of Stars has seven wins from 24 starts on good, Pyramid Place has three wins from 16 on good, Jentobello has two wins and six places from seven starts on good, Roarin' Success has placed once from seven on good without winning, and Hunters Spring has one win from four on good; North of Richmond has had no runs on good.
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