Horse profile
As If By Chance (GB)
by Fountain Of Youth (IRE) out of Citron (GB) (Reel Buddy)
43 runs · 9 courses · from Dec 2020
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
No run recorded since 3 Oct 2024 — 761 days ago. Our archive can't say whether the horse is still in training.
Last run Oct 2024 · 10th of 12
5 wins · 4 courses
Last raced off OR 69
KTB Profile
As If By Chance won five of 43 starts, all on turf over 6f – 7f. He gained his biggest success in a Class 4 handicap at Windsor on good to firm in May 2023 off a mark of 70 and also landed a Class 5 at Nottingham on good to soft in August 2023. The gelding, who was aged 6 at his last run in Oct 2024, finished 10 of 12 at Newcastle on the all-weather that day. He has never scored on the surface.
Based on 43 archived runs · run-style from 3 commented runs since Aug 2024 · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance
All wins on turf
OR ↓ 10lb off peak
- 5–43Wins / Runs
- 11.6%Strike rate
- 15 (34.9%)Placed
- −4.25£1 level staken=43 at SP
- 1.13Fair A/E n=43 · 0.96 incl. margin
- 79Highest OR
- 19dBetween runs (median)longest 207 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating69↓ 10lb off peak
69
65–79
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 89
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 16 | 105C | 93 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 115A | 77 | — |
| Good | 8 | 127C | 94.5 | — |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 91B | 70 | — |
| Soft | 4 | 91C | 86.5 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 43 | 127C | 89 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 43 figures from 43 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 3 analysed runs since Aug 2024
- Held up 2 (67%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (33%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 7.3% of 1,075 runs since Apr 2019 (104 horses).
Strongest on good to firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.3% from 124. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −7.3 | — |
| Good to Firm | 201 | 22 | 10.9% | +3.6 | 2 from 16 |
| Good | 259 | 27 | 10.4% | +3.1 | 2 from 8 |
| Good to Soft | 108 | 7 | 6.5% | −0.8 | 1 from 4 |
| Soft | 103 | 4 | 3.9% | −3.4 | 0 from 4 |
| Heavy | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | −2 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 384 | 18 | 4.7% | −2.6 | 0 from 11 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 182 | 14 | 7.7% | +0.4 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 565 | 43 | 7.6% | +0.3 | 5 from 43 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 158 | 6 | 3.8% | −3.5 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 124 | 14 | 11.3% | +4 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 25 | 1 | 4% | −3.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | +3.8 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 10 | 0 | 0% | −7.3 | — |
| Over 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −7.3 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2019 · as at 4 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Citron (GB) (Reel Buddy)
8 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Citron Major (GB) (7 wins).
The wins came over 5f–7f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Citron Major (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citron Major (GB) | 41 | 7 | 6f–7f | Class 3 |
| Firedanser (GB) | 11 | 1 | 6f | Class 5 |
| Bitter Lemon (GB) | 15 | 1 | 5f | Class 6 |
| Chamberlain (GB) | 13 | 0 | — | — |
| Loki's Strike (GB) | 8 | 0 | — | — |
| Infatuated (GB) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
| Askim (GB) | 8 | 0 | — | — |
| Mikkmu (GB) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 16 | 2 | 13% | −7.25 |
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| Good | 8 | 2 | 25% | +9.00 |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 1 | 25% | +9.00 |
| Soft | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 23 | 1 | 4% | −17.50 |
| Class 5 | 19 | 3 | 16% | +10.25 |
| Class 6 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle (AW) | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| York | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Doncaster | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Redcar | 6 | 1 | 17% | −2.75 |
| Windsor | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.50 |
| Nottingham | 4 | 2 | 50% | +13.00 |
| Thirsk | 4 | 1 | 25% | +9.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Beverley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faye McManoman | 16 | 1 | 6% | −12.75 |
| Rowan Scott | 11 | 1 | 9% | +2.00 |
| Alex Jary | 8 | 1 | 13% | +5.00 |
| Tom Marquand | 2 | 1 | 50% | +3.50 |
| Daniel Tudhope | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.00 |
| Lewis Edmunds | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Brandon Wilkie | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Barry McHugh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 24 | 2 | 8% | −5.50 |
| Visor | 12 | 2 | 17% | +5.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 7 | 1 | 14% | −3.75 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2 | 17% | +6.50 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2 | 17% | +5.00 |
| 2021 | 10 | 1 | 10% | −6.75 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 03 Oct 24+23d | Newcastle (AW) | Get Raceday Ready Handicap (Div 1) Held up towards the back - nudged for effort when losing touch with the pace over 2f out - stayed on steadily in the closing stages to finish 10th | 10/12 | 2¼ | 8-12 | 69 | 89A | 56A | Alex Jary | 16/1 |
| 10 Sep 24+22d | Newcastle (AW) | QuinnBet Daily Free Bet Handicap Sat behind the pace on the far rail - lost momentum with two furlongs left - knocked off stride inside the last - shifted course right and rallied to snatch third late | 3/13 | 1½ | 9-6 | 69 | 82B | 81A | Faye McManoman | 25/1 |
| 19 Aug 24+21d | Windsor | Get The Inside Track With Raceday-Ready.Com Handicap Sluggish start - covered ground on the outer and up to midfield by halfway under a drive - then found little and dropped away | 11/12 | 2¼ | 9-5 | 71 | 81B | 47A | Faye McManoman | 28/1 |
| 29 Jul 24+16d | Windsor | Thames Alfa Romeo Slough Apprentice Handicap | 3/7 | 1 | 9-11 | 72 | 90A | 87A | Alex Jary | 6/1 |
| 13 Jul 24+38d | York | John Smith's Sprint Handicap | 14/18 | nk | 8-12 | 74 | 56C | 59A | Alex Jary | 33/1 |
| 05 Jun 24+33d | Nottingham | Don't Miss Fiver Friday Raceday 19th July Handicap | 5/13 | ¾ | 9-4 | 75 | 96C | 87A | Faye McManoman | 20/1 |
| 03 May 24+17d | Newcastle (AW) | Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap | 9/10 | 1¾ | 8-9 | 76 | 100A | 64A | Alex Jary | 25/1 |
| 16 Apr 24+153d | Newcastle (AW) | quinnbet.com Handicap | 4/14 | ¾ | 9-1 | 77 | 110B | 85A | Alex Jary | 150/1 |
| 2023 · 12 runs | ||||||||||
| 15 Nov 23+62d | Newcastle (AW) | Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap (Div 2) | 10/10 | 2½ | 9-7 | 78 | 70A | 51A | Faye McManoman | 8/1 |
| 14 Sep 23+19d | Doncaster | Meriel Tufnell Apprentice Handicap | 10/13 | 5 | 9-3 | 79 | 52C | 53A | Alex Jary | 14/1 |
| 26 Aug 23+16d | Windsor | Racing League On Sky Sports Racing Handicap | 9/12 | 3¼ | 9-1 | 79 | 94B | 62A | Brandon Wilkie | 6/1 |
| 10 Aug 23+40d | Nottingham | Rhino.Bet Handicap | 1/11 | 9-6 | 74 | 91B | 96A | Alex Jary | 12/1 | |
| 01 Jul 23+14d | Doncaster | Skopes Menswear Lakeside Village 75th Anniversary Handicap | 7/10 | ½ | 8-13 | 75 | 110B | 77A | Faye McManoman | 8/1 |
| 17 Jun 23+19d | York | Clean Up With Pps Handicap | 6/15 | 1¼ | 9-6 | 75 | 92C | 83A | Tom Marquand | 16/1 |
| 29 May 23+9d | Windsor | Download Fitzdares For Free Race Streaming Handicap | 1/11 | 8-9 | 70 | 98A | 82A | Tom Marquand | 9/2F | |
| 20 May 23+14d | Doncaster | Stuart Hancock A1 Garden Buildings Ltd Handicap | 3/16 | 2½ | 8-8 | 70 | 103C | 87A | Barry McHugh | 9/1 |
| 06 May 23+14d | Thirsk | Vickers.Bet Customer Racing Club Handicap | 9/13 | 1¼ | 9-1 | 72 | 87C | 60A | Rowan Scott | 9/1 |
| 22 Apr 23+19d | Thirsk | Stephanie Pennington Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 2) | 4/11 | 1½ | 9-7 | 73 | 86A | 90A | Rowan Scott | 4/1J |
| 03 Apr 23+10d | Newcastle (AW) | Spreadex Sports Get 40 In Bonuses Handicap | 5/8 | hd | 9-3 | 74 | 69A | 71A | Rowan Scott | 11/2 |
| 24 Mar 23+168d | Newcastle (AW) | Spreadex Sports Best Premier League Odds Handicap | 3/12 | 1 | 9-4 | 75 | 115A | 85A | Rowan Scott | 25/1 |
| 2022 · 12 runs | ||||||||||
| 07 Oct 22+24d | York | Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Handicap | 19/19 | 1½ | 9-3 | 77 | 16C | 64C | Faye McManoman | 40/1 |
| 13 Sep 22+17d | Redcar | Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap | 11/14 | 1 | 9-9 | 77 | 84C | 62A | Rowan Scott | 6/1 |
| 27 Aug 22+14d | Redcar | Ian & Pat Swales Golden Wedding Handicap | 2/13 | hd | 10-0 | 75 | 105C | 95A | Daniel Tudhope | 2/1F |
| 13 Aug 22+22d | Doncaster | Watch Sky Sports Racing 415 Handicap | 3/10 | ½ | 10-0 | 75 | 100A | 88A | Lewis Edmunds | 13/2 |
| 22 Jul 22+13d | York | Tomahawk Steakhouses Handicap | 7/15 | ¾ | 9-3 | 77 | 99C | 80A | Faye McManoman | 15/2 |
| 09 Jul 22+16d | York | John Smith's Sprint Handicap | 8/20 | nse | 9-7 | 78 | 95C | 92A | Rowan Scott | 16/1 |
| 23 Jun 22+23d | Nottingham | Happy Birthday Donna Blore Handicap | 3/4 | 3 | 10-0 | 78 | 99C | 81B | Rowan Scott | 11/4 |
| 31 May 22+18d | Thirsk | Constant Security Services Handicap | 1/15 | 9-5 | 71 | 127C | 102A | Rowan Scott | 12/1 | |
| 13 May 22+7d | Newmarket | Thank You For Supporting Racing Welfare Apprentice Handicap | 4/6 | 4½ | 9-6 | 65 | 71A | 68B | Alex Jary | 11/10F |
| 06 May 22+14d | Nottingham | Join Racing Tv Now Handicap | 1/13 | 9-9 | 65 | 94C | 97A | Daniel Tudhope | 3/1F | |
| 22 Apr 22+13d | Doncaster | At The Races App Form Study Handicap (Div 1) | 4/11 | nse | 9-0 | 66 | 91A | 83A | Faye McManoman | 9/1 |
| 09 Apr 22+207d | Thirsk | Vickers.Bet For Great Grand National Prices Handicap (Div 2) | 6/14 | nk | 8-10 | 67 | 91C | 75A | Faye McManoman | 22/1 |
| 2021 · 10 runs | ||||||||||
| 14 Sep 21+17d | Redcar | Every Race Live On Racing TV Novice Stakes | 1/9 | 9-2 | 67 | 88A | 74A | Faye McManoman | 9/4F | |
| 28 Aug 21+14d | Beverley | Beverley Annual Badgeholders Novice Stakes | 3/5 | nk | 9-2 | 67 | 89C | 66B | Faye McManoman | 16/1 |
| 14 Aug 21+9d | Doncaster | Cazoo Novice Stakes | 6/9 | 1¼ | 8-13 | 68 | 75B | 66A | Faye McManoman | 6/1 |
| 05 Aug 21+27d | Redcar | Visit racingtv.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes | 2/13 | 1¼ | 9-5 | 67 | 95C | 80A | Rowan Scott | 11/2 |
| 09 Jul 21+20d | York | William Hill Extra Place Races Apprentice Handicap | 7/11 | ¾ | 9-0 | 68 | 80A | 74A | Faye McManoman | 28/1 |
| 19 Jun 21+19d | Redcar | Visit Redcar Car Boot Tomorrow Novice Median Auction Stakes | 2/7 | 1½ | 9-3 | 70 | 74A | 73A | Rowan Scott | 4/1 |
| 31 May 21+97d | Redcar | Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Median Auction Maiden Stakes | 4/13 | ½ | 9-5 | 74 | 80C | 82A | Rowan Scott | 12/1 |
| 23 Feb 21+18d | Newcastle (AW) | Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost Novice Stakes | 2/6 | 3½ | 8-13 | 77 | 58A | 69B | Faye McManoman | 10/3 |
| 05 Feb 21+24d | Newcastle (AW) | Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Novice Stakes | 2/5 | 3 | 8-10 | — | 77C | 64B | Faye McManoman | 7/2 |
| 12 Jan 21+22d | Newcastle (AW) | Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Novice Stakes | 2/11 | shd | 9-2 | — | 73A | 75A | Faye McManoman | 200/1 |
| 2020 · 1 run | ||||||||||
| 21 Dec 20 | Newcastle (AW) | Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Maiden Stakes | 10/11 | 3¾ | 9-5 | — | 60C | 46C | Lewis Edmunds | 200/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has As If By Chance won?
- As If By Chance (GB) won 5 of 43 archived starts between 2020 and 2024, a strike rate of 11.6%. Placed 15 times in total (34.9% of starts).
- Who trained As If By Chance?
- As If By Chance (GB) was trained by Nigel Tinkler on the most recent run on record, at Newcastle (AW) on 3 October 2024.
- Who is As If By Chance's sire?
- As If By Chance (GB) is by Fountain Of Youth (IRE) out of Citron (GB), whose sire is Reel Buddy.
- What going does As If By Chance prefer?
- As If By Chance (GB) has the best record on good going: 2 wins from 8 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is As If By Chance's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 69, from the run on 3 October 2024. The highest on record is 79.
- What is As If By Chance's sire's record?
- Fountain Of Youth (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 7.3% of 1,075 runs since Apr 2019 (104 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.3% from 124. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.
- Who are As If By Chance's siblings?
- Out of Citron (GB), As If By Chance (GB) has 8 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Citron Major (GB) (7). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Citron Major (GB)). The wins came over 5f–7f. As at Nov 2026.