Horse profile
Certain Lad (GB)
by Clodovil (IRE) out of Chelsey Jayne (IRE) (Galileo)
46 runs · 22 courses · from May 2018
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
10 wins · 8 courses
Off 148 days · 9th of 9
Last raced off OR 105
KTB Profile
Certain Lad won ten of 46 starts including the Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte at Longchamp in Sep 2024 and another Group 3 in our archive. Five of those wins came over 1m2f – 1m4f on soft or heavy ground. He also landed two handicaps at York in Oct 2023 off marks of 100 and 105. His last run, at Goodwood in May 2026, saw him finish 9 of 9 in a Class 1 race off an official rating of 105.
Based on 46 archived runs · run-style from 4 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
- 10–46Wins / Runs
- 21.7%Strike rate
- 19 (41.3%)Placed
- +5.55£1 level staken=46 at SP
- 2.23Fair A/E n=46 · 1.92 incl. margin
- 112Highest OR
- 65dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating105↓ 7lb off peak
105
87–112
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 95
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 13 | 146A | 95 | 1 · — |
| Good to Firm | 10 | 117A | 90.5 | — |
| Soft | 5 | 122C | 109 | — |
| Good to Soft | 5 | 103A | 86 | — |
| Heavy | 4 | 102A | 87 | 1 · — |
| Firm | 1 | — | — | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 27 | 146A | 95 | 2 · 95 / 81.5 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 8 | 122A | 87.5 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 95A | 77 | — |
Of 40 runs looked at, 1 has no figure: not enough races on the card to set the day (under 4) (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 39 figures from 40 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 4 analysed runs
- Held up 2 (50%) · 0 wins
- Midfield 1 (25%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (25%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Clodovil (IRE)
Progeny in our archive have won 9.7% of 6,513 runs since Jan 2008 (415 horses).
Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.5% from 155.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | +6 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Firm | 1,073 | 99 | 9.2% | −0.5 | 3 from 10 |
| Good | 1,455 | 140 | 9.6% | −0.1 | 1 from 14 |
| Good to Soft | 703 | 80 | 11.4% | +1.7 | 2 from 7 |
| Soft | 878 | 71 | 8.1% | −1.6 | 3 from 9 |
| Heavy | 262 | 27 | 10.3% | +0.6 | 1 from 4 |
| Standard (AW) | 2,091 | 210 | 10% | +0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 899 | 87 | 9.7% | 0 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 2,896 | 287 | 9.9% | +0.2 | 2 from 5 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,468 | 151 | 10.3% | +0.6 | 3 from 11 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 719 | 58 | 8.1% | −1.6 | 5 from 30 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 330 | 27 | 8.2% | −1.5 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 155 | 21 | 13.5% | +3.8 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | −0.6 | — |
| Over 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −9.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Chelsey Jayne (IRE) (Galileo)
7 siblings in the archive, 6 winners — best of them Brandon Castle (GB) (12 wins).
The wins came over 7f–2m½f; the highest grade won is Listed (Gather Ye Rosebuds (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Castle (GB) | 60 | 12 | 1m4f–2m½f | Class 2 |
| The Statesman (GB) | 13 | 4 | 1m1f–2m | Class 3 |
| Jack Regan (GB) | 16 | 4 | 1m2f–2m½f | Class 2 |
| Gather Ye Rosebuds (GB) | 9 | 3 | 1m2f–1m4f | Listed |
| Standbackandlook (GB) | 17 | 2 | 1m6f | Class 5 |
| Chelsea Mick (GB) | 15 | 1 | 7f | Class 6 |
| Welsh Rarebit (GB) | 15 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 14 | 1 | 7% | −10.25 |
| Good to Firm | 10 | 3 | 30% | +0.87 |
| Soft | 9 | 3 | 33% | +8.20 |
| Good to Soft | 7 | 2 | 29% | +8.40 |
| Heavy | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.33 |
| Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 2 | 18 | 3 | 17% | −4.42 |
| Class 1 | 16 | 1 | 6% | −5.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.62 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haydock | 7 | 2 | 29% | +0.12 |
| York | 6 | 2 | 33% | +10.50 |
| Chester | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Longchamp (FR) | 3 | 1 | 33% | +0.00 |
| Ascot | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Newmarket | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Ayr | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.75 |
| Sandown | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newbury | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.33 |
| Yarmouth | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Compiegne (FR) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.70 |
| Epsom Downs | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Galway | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lyon Parilly (FR) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.40 |
| Deauville (FR) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Curragh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Redcar | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 30 | 5 | 17% | −4.72 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 11 | 3 | 27% | +8.90 |
| 6f – 7f | 5 | 2 | 40% | +1.37 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Bass | 21 | 4 | 19% | +0.53 |
| Ben Curtis | 11 | 3 | 27% | −0.88 |
| Hollie Doyle | 2 | 1 | 50% | +9.00 |
| Callum Shepherd | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Ronan Whelan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Charles Bishop | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Maxime Guyon | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.40 |
| Kieran Shoemark | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Shane Foley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Scott McCullagh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Moore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2024 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +5.70 |
| 2023 | 9 | 2 | 22% | +0.83 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2020 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +6.00 |
| 2019 | 9 | 2 | 22% | −0.75 |
| 2018 | 7 | 3 | 43% | +3.77 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May 26+215d | Goodwood | Fitzdares Festival Stakes (Listed) Settled in mid-pack early - pushed along approaching 2f out - soon well held to finish ninth | 9/9 | 3 | 9-3 | 105 | 68A | 85A | George Bass | 33/1 |
| 19 Oct 25+29d | Leopardstown | Trigo Stakes (Listed) Sat behind the front group early - 4th at halfway - driven up to dispute the lead entering the straight - asked for more a furlong out but unable to find extra - held 3rd and stayed on without gaining | 3/10 | 1¾ | 9-7 | 107 | 95A | 95A | George Bass | 12/1 |
| 20 Sep 25+56d | Ayr | Ladbrokes 'Big Football Bet Builder Boosts' Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) Sat close to the front early - driven into contention 2f out - drifted off a true line and lost ground final furlong to finish fourth | 4/6 | 6½ | 9-5 | 110 | 67A | 86B | George Bass | 11/1 |
| 26 Jul 25+78d | York | Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Sat close to the pace early - asked for effort over 2f out and gave way inside final 2f - dropped away steadily to finish seventh | 7/7 | 1¼ | 9-8 | 112 | 112A | 94A | George Bass | 50/1 |
| 09 May 25+33d | Chester | IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Huxley Stakes (Group 2) Hesitant leaving the stalls - travelled wide behind the front group - pressed for effort 2f out but unable to quicken and finished held | 6/6 | ½ | 9-3 | 112 | 95A | 88B | George Bass | 8/1 |
| 06 Apr 25+210d | Longchamp (FR) | Prix d'Harcourt (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) | 3/5 | 1 | 9-0 | — | — | — | George Bass | 59/10 |
| 08 Sep 24+15d | Longchamp (FR) | La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) | 1/7 | 9-0 | — | — | — | George Bass | 2/1F | |
| 24 Aug 24+14d | Windsor | Weatherbys Global Stallions App Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) Set the pace early - lost front spot 9f out - remained close up - shifted across wide approaching last two furlongs - regained advantage - pushed along a furlong out - overtaken again close home - kept battling to go under by a whisker | 2/7 | nk | 9-7 | 112 | 109B | 104A | George Bass | 7/1 |
| 10 Aug 24+49d | Haydock | Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Went straight to front early - dropped to shadow the pace-setter - regained command 2f out - pushed along a furlong out - overtaken close home then bumped by rival late - kept trying to the line in defeat | 2/5 | nk | 9-7 | 112 | 112C | 99B | George Bass | 7/1 |
| 22 Jun 24+30d | Compiegne (FR) | Grand Prix de Compiegne - 5th Etape du Defi du Galop () (4yo+) (Turf) | 1/8 | 9-0 | — | — | — | George Bass | 77/10 | |
| 23 May 24+33d | Sandown | Chasemore Farm Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) | 2/4 | 1 | 9-2 | 108 | 122C | 96B | George Bass | 7/2 |
| 20 Apr 24+175d | Newbury | Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) | 4/10 | 2¼ | 9-2 | 108 | 92A | 98A | George Bass | 40/1 |
| 28 Oct 23+14d | Doncaster | Red Rock Partnership Recruitment Solutions Handicap | 1/6 | 9-11 | 105 | 79A | 104B | George Bass | 10/3 | |
| 14 Oct 23+21d | York | Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap | 1/12 | 9-7 | 100 | 100A | 104A | George Bass | 9/2 | |
| 23 Sep 23+21d | Newbury | Dubai Duty Free Handicap | 5/8 | nse | 9-9 | 101 | 102A | 101A | George Bass | 10/1 |
| 02 Sep 23+37d | Sandown | Virgin Bet Handicap | 2/14 | 4½ | 9-9 | 101 | 114C | 103A | George Bass | 22/1 |
| 27 Jul 23+12d | Yarmouth | William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Racing League Race 7 Handicap | 6/11 | 2 | 9-12 | 103 | 103A | 102A | Kieran Shoemark | 14/1 |
| 15 Jul 23+25d | York | John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) | 11/18 | nk | 9-6 | 107 | 86C | 91A | George Bass | 33/1 |
| 20 Jun 23+39d | Ascot | Wolferton Stakes (Listed) | 13/16 | hd | 9-5 | 107 | 79C | 84A | Ben Curtis | 50/1 |
| 12 May 23+22d | Chester | Precision Facades Handicap | 3/9 | 1½ | 9-8 | 107 | 110A | 101A | George Bass | 14/1 |
| 20 Apr 23+257d | Longchamp (FR) | Prix Jacques Laffitte () (4yo+) (Moyenne Course) (Turf) | 7/9 | ¾ | 9-0 | — | — | — | Ben Curtis | 28/1 |
| 06 Aug 22+28d | Haydock | Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) | 3/10 | ¾ | 9-7 | 104 | 146A | 106A | Ben Curtis | 25/1 |
| 09 Jul 22+25d | York | John Smith's Cup Handicap | 11/22 | nk | 9-7 | 107 | 87C | 95A | George Bass | 33/1 |
| 14 Jun 22+39d | Ascot | Wolferton Stakes (Listed) | 8/15 | hd | 9-5 | 107 | 94C | 93A | Hollie Doyle | 18/1 |
| 06 May 22+587d | Chester | Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Ire-Incentive Scheme Huxley Stakes (Group 2) | 2/4 | 3 | 9-3 | 106 | 102C | 104B | Ben Curtis | 14/1 |
| 26 Sep 20+35d | Newmarket | bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) | 12/27 | 3 | 9-5 | 112 | 94C | 91A | George Bass | 28/1 |
| 22 Aug 20+14d | York | Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (Group 3) | 1/9 | 9-5 | 108 | 81A | 106A | Hollie Doyle | 10/1 | |
| 08 Aug 20+21d | Haydock | BetVictor Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) | 2/7 | 2¼ | 9-5 | 108 | 101A | 96A | Ben Curtis | 10/1 |
| 18 Jul 20+14d | York | John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage) | 2/22 | 1 | 8-12 | 103 | 101C | 101A | George Bass | 66/1 |
| 04 Jul 20+287d | Epsom Downs | Investec Handicap | 11/13 | ½ | 9-10 | 104 | 85C | 91A | Ben Curtis | 14/1 |
| 21 Sep 19+9d | Ayr | William Hill Leading Racecourse Bookmaker Handicap (For The Kilkerran Cup) | 1/10 | 9-7 | 98 | 80A | 95A | Ben Curtis | 11/4F | |
| 12 Sep 19+18d | Doncaster | Magners Rose Handicap | 2/7 | 1½ | 9-7 | 98 | 51A | 88A | Ben Curtis | 7/1 |
| 25 Aug 19+21d | Yarmouth | Best Odds Guaranteed At MansionBet App Handicap | 4/6 | nk | 9-7 | 98 | 61A | 85B | Callum Shepherd | 10/1 |
| 04 Aug 19+30d | Galway | Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Ahonoora' Handicap (Premier Handicap) | 12/16 | ½ | 9-2 | 99 | — | 75A | Shane Foley | 14/1 |
| 05 Jul 19+15d | Haydock | Racingtv.com Handicap | 1/8 | 9-11 | 96 | 117A | 95A | Callum Shepherd | 7/2F | |
| 20 Jun 19+26d | Ascot | Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Str) | 14/28 | hd | 9-0 | 98 | 72C | 79A | Ronan Whelan | 66/1 |
| 25 May 19+21d | Haydock | Amix Silver Bowl Handicap | 4/14 | 1 | 9-0 | 98 | 102C | 101A | Ben Curtis | 16/1 |
| 04 May 19+23d | Newmarket | Qatar Racing Welfare Handicap | 6/10 | ½ | 9-0 | 101 | 81A | 84A | Scott McCullagh | 10/1 |
| 11 Apr 19+196d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) | 5/9 | 2¼ | 9-5 | 103 | 122A | 87A | Charles Bishop | 8/1 |
| 27 Sep 18+19d | Lyon Parilly (FR) | Criterium De Lyon () (2yo) (Turf) | 1/9 | 9-0 | — | — | — | Maxime Guyon | 17/5 | |
| 08 Sep 18+21d | Haydock | 32Red Casino Ascendant Stakes (Listed) | 3/5 | 1¼ | 9-2 | 98 | 66C | 90B | Ryan Moore | 5/1 |
| 18 Aug 18+35d | Deauville (FR) | Criterium du Fonds Europeen de l'Elevage () (2yo) (Turf) | 5/7 | ½ | 9-0 | — | — | — | Maxime Guyon | 48/10 |
| 14 Jul 18+14d | Newmarket | bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) | 4/7 | 4½ | 9-1 | 99 | 76A | 88A | Charles Bishop | 6/1 |
| 30 Jun 18+16d | Curragh | GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2) | 3/7 | 1¼ | 9-3 | 87 | 78A | 91A | Ronan Whelan | 6/1 |
| 14 Jun 18+24d | Haydock | Apropos Architecture In Glass Novice Stakes (Plus 10) | 1/7 | 9-5 | — | 58B | 90A | Ben Curtis | 13/8 | |
| 21 May 18 | Redcar | Watch Racing UK Anywhere Novice Auction Stakes | 1/11 | 9-2 | — | 95A | 97A | Ben Curtis | 11/4 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Certain Lad (GB) won?
- Certain Lad (GB) won 10 of 46 archived starts between 2018 and 2026, a strike rate of 21.7%. Placed 19 times in total (41.3% of starts).
- Who trains Certain Lad (GB)?
- Certain Lad (GB) is trained by Jack Channon, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 22 May 2026.
- Who is Certain Lad (GB)'s sire?
- Certain Lad (GB) is by Clodovil (IRE) out of Chelsey Jayne (IRE), whose sire is Galileo.
- What going does Certain Lad (GB) prefer?
- Certain Lad (GB) has the best record on soft going: 3 wins from 9 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Certain Lad (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 105, from the run on 22 May 2026. The highest on record is 112.
- What is Certain Lad (GB)'s sire's record?
- Clodovil (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.7% of 6,513 runs since Jan 2008 (415 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.5% from 155.
- Who are Certain Lad (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Chelsey Jayne (IRE), Certain Lad (GB) has 7 other produce in our archive, 6 of them winners. Most wins: Brandon Castle (GB) (12). Highest grade won: Listed (Gather Ye Rosebuds (GB)). The wins came over 7f–2m½f. As at Oct 2026.