Fallacious Promise (GB)
Fallacious Promise is a gelding with three wins from 12 starts, all over 1m – 1m1f on standard AW. He won a Class 6 handicap at Lingfield in Jul 2026 off 53, then added two more handicaps in Aug 2026 at Lingfield and Kempton off 63. Typically held up, he last ran at Kempton in Sep 2026, finishing 6 of 7 in a Class 4 handicap off his career-high mark of 77.
- 3–12Wins / Runs
- 25%Strike rate
- 7 (58.3%)Placed
- −4.77£1 level staken=12 at SP
- 1.22Fair A/E n=12 · 1.01 incl. margin
- 77Highest OR
- 28dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 115
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 115B | 79 | 11 · 115 / 79 |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 7 | 115B | 85 | 7 · 115 / 85 |
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 79A | 55.5 | 4 · 79 / 55.5 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 12 figures from 12 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 7 analysed runs
- Held up 4 (57%) · 1 win
- Prominent 1 (14%) · 1 win
- Midfield 1 (14%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (14%) · 1 win
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.7% of 692 runs since Jan 2008 (101 horses).
Weakest on good going: 6.6% from 167. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.8% from 128. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 6.9% from 101.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 4 | 0 | 0% | −10.7 | — |
| Good to Firm | 152 | 20 | 13.2% | +2.5 | — |
| Good | 167 | 11 | 6.6% | −4.1 | — |
| Good to Soft | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | +5.2 | — |
| Soft | 59 | 4 | 6.8% | −3.9 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | −4.8 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 230 | 28 | 12.2% | +1.5 | 3 from 11 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 101 | 7 | 6.9% | −3.8 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 397 | 40 | 10.1% | −0.6 | 0 from 4 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 128 | 19 | 14.8% | +4.1 | 3 from 7 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 63 | 8 | 12.7% | +2 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −10.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
5 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Byron's Choice (GB) (6 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Byron's Choice (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron's Choice (GB) | 28 | 6 | 6f–7½f | Class 3 |
| Amelia's Joy (GB) | 19 | 3 | 6f–7f | Class 5 |
| Quickfire (GB) | 16 | 2 | 7f–1m | Class 5 |
| Twilight Song (IRE) | 12 | 1 | 6f | Class 5 |
| Tiberio Smile (GB) | 12 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 11 | 3 | 27% | −3.77 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 7 | 2 | 29% | −3.77 |
| Class 5 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 4 | 2 | 50% | −0.77 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 7 | 3 | 43% | +0.23 |
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Morris | 6 | 3 | 50% | +1.23 |
| Grace McEntee | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| David Egan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Darragh Keenan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Paul Mulrennan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 3 | 33% | −1.77 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep 26+20d | Kempton (AW) | Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes Settled at back of field - clipped heels approaching 5f out - pushed along inside final furlong but never featured in finish | 6/7 | shd | 9-1 | 77 | 85A | 68A | David Egan | 5/1 |
| 15 Aug 26+5d | Lingfield (AW) | Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes Handy early - settled just behind the pace - urged forward with 2f left - hit the front inside final furlong - pulled clear to score | 1/6 | 9-12 | 63 | 73B | 87B | Luke Morris | 1/2F | |
| 10 Aug 26+33d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes Held up at the back - urged forward approaching 2f out - shifted left and surged into contention inside the final 2f - hit the front 1f out - kicked away entering the last furlong - won comfortably | 1/14 | 9-2 | 63 | 115B | 89A | Luke Morris | 3/1 | |
| 08 Jul 26+2d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap racing mid-division - held up for space passing the 2f marker before improving out wide from the furlong marker - pressed the winner in the final 110yds but had nothing more to offer | 2/13 | ¾ | 9-3 | 53 | 96B | 81A | Luke Morris | 6/5F |
| 06 Jul 26+32d | Lingfield (AW) | Follow attheraces On Instagram Handicap Settled towards back - improved position out wide 2f out - upsides the pace-setter without effort over 1f out - shortly in front - kicked away entering last furlong and scored comfortably | 1/10 | 9-8 | 53 | 85A | 80A | Luke Morris | 8/11F | |
| 04 Jun 26+34d | Lingfield (AW) | Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap Held up at the back - driven into contention around 2f out going wide - flattened out close home to finish third | 3/10 | nk | 9-3 | 53 | 92A | 67A | Luke Morris | 3/1 |
| 01 May 26+79d | Newcastle (AW) | Quaff Box Handicap Held up early - improved into contention 3f out - driven to challenge inside final furlong - kept on but couldn't overhaul winner close home | 2/8 | 2 | 8-8 | 50 | 68A | 56A | Luke Morris | 5/4F |
| 11 Feb 26+23d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Settled at the back early - flew into contention inside the final furlong - squeezed for space then darted right to the rail - finished full of running to just miss out | 2/12 | ½ | 9-1 | 47 | 65A | 60A | Darragh Keenan | 20/1 |
| 19 Jan 26+42d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Fought for control at the back early - urged forward with over 2f left - always struggling to get involved - well held in 9th | 9/10 | 2¼ | 9-4 | 50 | 79A | 39A | Paul Mulrennan | 10/1 |
| 08 Dec 25+12d | Lingfield (AW) | Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Held up towards back of field - unable to land a blow - beaten into 5th | 5/12 | 8½ | 9-3 | — | 57A | 50A | Grace McEntee | 250/1 |
| 26 Nov 25+29d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Settled at the back early - pushed along with 2f left - unable to make an impression through the finish - eventually came home well beaten in 10th | 10/13 | 1½ | 9-3 | — | 54B | 39A | Grace McEntee | 200/1 |
| 28 Oct 25 | Leicester | Happy Birthday Richard Clowes EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Dwelt at the break - trailed the field throughout - well held at the finish | 9/9 | 17 | 9-7 | — | -2C | 42C | Grace McEntee | 125/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Fallacious Promise (GB) won?
- Fallacious Promise (GB) won 3 of 12 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 25%. Placed 7 times in total (58.3% of starts).
- Who trains Fallacious Promise (GB)?
- Fallacious Promise (GB) is trained by John Butler, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 4 September 2026.
- Who is Fallacious Promise (GB)'s sire?
- Fallacious Promise (GB) is by Lope Y Fernandez (IRE) out of Byrony (IRE), whose sire is Byron.
- What going does Fallacious Promise (GB) prefer?
- Fallacious Promise (GB) has the best record on standard (aw) going: 3 wins from 11 starts (27.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Fallacious Promise (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 77, from the run on 4 September 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Fallacious Promise (GB)'s sire's record?
- Lope Y Fernandez (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.7% of 692 runs since Jan 2008 (101 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest on good going: 6.6% from 167. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.8% from 128. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 6.9% from 101.
- Who are Fallacious Promise (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Byrony (IRE), Fallacious Promise (GB) has 5 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Byron's Choice (GB) (6). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Byron's Choice (GB)). The wins came over 6f–1m. As at Oct 2026.