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Trainer profile

John Butler

2,141 runners in the last 5 seasons · 257 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 6.6% of 394 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.
In form — 3 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2022
217–2,141
Wins / Runs
10.1%
Strike rate
n=2,141
605 (28%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=2,133 · 0.88 incl. margin
−694.12
£1 level stake
n=2,141 at SP · −32.4%
£2.13m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
17.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 430 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 15% (73 runs). The yard is in form now — 3 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,141 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–May 36% when favourite Luke Morris: 9.2% from 196 Headgear returns: 15.1% Sends off the favourite in 10% of races
The read

It is weakest at Haydock (0% over 35 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 15.1% (n=73, Fair A/E 1.40), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=69, Fair A/E 0.40). Right now the yard is firing: 3 winners from 19 runners in the last 14 days (15.8%, 5.7pts above the 10.1% baseline). Luke Morris rides 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.2%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (25.4%, n=67). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Celebrate ITM's 200th Ire Voucher Winner Fillies' Handicap at York (Aug 2022, £51,540). The stable star of the record: Stand Guard (GB) — 17 wins from 37 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.6%−0.5
n=301 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −36.01
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.1%−7.0
n=97 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −22.50
Debutants · first career start
4.9%−5.2
n=122 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −74.38
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−7.2
n=69 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −59.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
15.1%+5.0
n=73 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −10.80
When favourite
36%
n=211 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +12.84
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.6%−0.5
n=425 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −158.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.1
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 25.4% vs 10.1% · n=67
With Jack Callan 26.7% vs 10.1% · n=30
On last-time-out winners 18.8% vs 10.1% · n=197
With C&D winners 17.7% vs 10.1% · n=417
With Billy Loughnane 22.2% vs 10.1% · n=36
At Haydock 0% vs 10.1% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 2,115 214 10.1% −696.24
Hurdle 13 1 7.7% +6.00
NH Flat 8 1 12.5% −4.88
Chase 5 1 20% +1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 1,451 168 11.6% −430.95
Good 232 18 7.8% −80.38
Good to Firm 195 15 7.7% −39.28
Soft 114 5 4.4% −71.38
Good to Soft 107 9 8.4% −38.13
Heavy 41 2 4.9% −33.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 472 55 11.7% −95.29
Wolverhampton (AW) 395 47 11.9% −91.57
Lingfield (AW) 220 30 13.6% −64.90
Newcastle (AW) 138 16 11.6% −41.62
Chelmsford City (AW) 121 10 8.3% −84.63
Southwell (AW) 105 10 9.5% −52.94
Yarmouth 97 6 6.2% −16.50
Newmarket 52 4 7.7% −32.88
Leicester 46 2 4.3% −35.50
Nottingham 43 3 7% −4.00
Brighton 38 5 13.2% −3.90
York 37 6 16.2% +49.00
Haydock 35 0 0% −35.00
Windsor 31 2 6.5% −11.50
Ascot 26 1 3.8% −15.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 863 110 12.7% −229.00
Class 5 718 65 9.1% −274.59
Class 4 339 29 8.6% −128.41
Class 3 107 8 7.5% +1.50
Class 2 96 5 5.2% −45.62
Class 1 17 0 0% −17.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 246 83 33.7% 1.19 +5.97
2nd–3rd fav 403 74 18.4% 1.11 −36.09
4th–6th fav 634 42 6.6% 0.85 −194.00
7th+ in betting 858 18 2.1% 0.73 −470.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Split Elevens (GB) 65 13 33 17 Oct 26
Solanna (GB) 54 10 24 25 Sep 26
Uzincso (GB) 42 2 9 23 Sep 26
Global Warning (GB)from Chris Dwyer 38 3 6 25 Mar 26
Soar Above (GB) 38 1 9 10 Dec 25
Sophar Sogood (IRE)from Paul D'Arcy 36 3 8 15 Dec 25
Kaaranah (IRE)from John Joseph Murphy 35 5 14 5 Oct 26
Jack Sparowe (IRE) 32 3 11 13 Aug 26
Windsor Pass (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington 32 2 14 26 Nov 25
Havana Touch (GB) 30 5 11 9 Oct 26
Rhythm N Rock (IRE) 29 2 8 9 Sep 26
Measured Moments (GB) 29 4 11 12 Oct 24
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 257 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 29 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nick Littmoden (2) and Paul D'Arcy (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for John Ryan (2) and Martin Dunne (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form
3 from 19 15.8% · +5.7pts vs baseline
Last 14 days15.8%
5-season base10.1%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
812111312814109799
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLuke Morris
9% of all rides
9.2% SR · A/E 1.00
RiderRWSR£1
Luke Morris 196 18 9.2% −91.57
David Egan 150 22 14.7% +45.48
Daniel Muscutt 148 25 16.9% −49.35
George Wood 117 7 6% −84.41
Darragh Keenan 112 3 2.7% −69.00
Neil Callan 80 10 12.5% −16.53
Grace McEntee 78 8 10.3% −39.05
Harry Burns 59 2 3.4% −37.50
Connor Beasley 52 6 11.5% −3.80
Kaiya Fraser 52 9 17.3% −11.00
Dylan Hogan 48 4 8.3% +26.12
Lewis Edmunds 48 7 14.6% −16.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
440
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£3.50m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 58 wins
Designer (GB) — Celebrate ITM's 200th Ire Voucher Winner Fillies' Handicap York · Aug 2022 · Class 2
£51,540
Designer (GB) — Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies' Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2023 · Class 2
£51,540
Farhan (IRE) — Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2022 · Class 2
£51,540
Notable horses
Stand Guard (GB) Split Elevens (GB) Solanna (GB) Come On Dave (IRE) Soar Above (GB) Uzincso (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Zoffany (IRE) 6.5% · 6–93
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,761 runs since 2008 (799 horses).
Pearl Secret (GB) 12.3% · 9–73
Progeny have won 9.6% of 894 runs since 2008 (73 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13% from 131. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.1% from 305. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.6% from 337.
Ajaya (GB) 20% · 13–65
Progeny have won 10.9% of 267 runs since 2008 (17 horses).
Dandy Man (IRE) 14.5% · 8–55
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,917 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Fascinating Rock (IRE) 9.1% · 5–55
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,110 runs since 2008 (101 horses).
Helmet (AUS) 18.5% · 10–54
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,851 runs since 2008 (351 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 148.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,388 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,388 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 January 2012 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sea The Light (IRE)J: Robert Havlin attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 14/1
19 Oct 26 Pontefract Senor Cortez (IRE)J: Ray Dawson Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 17/2
17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Split Elevens (GB)J: Luke Morris Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 7/4F
16 Oct 26 Haydock Zain Primus (GB)J: David Egan Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 14th 22/1
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Metal Merchant (IRE)J: Sean Levey Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 7th 40/1
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Protectrix (IRE)J: David Egan Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 13/2
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Gunfighter (IRE)J: David Egan Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 1st 1/1F
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Stephen's Secret (GB)J: David Egan Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 6th 250/1
13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Love Alive (GB)J: Clifford Lee Cavani Champion Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 25/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Logi Bear (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 9/1
12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Foxy Night (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 3rd 7/2
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Goomah (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 9/2
12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Yokohama (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani Aks Skip Hire Services Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 3/1F
10 Oct 26 York Metallo (IRE)J: David Egan Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 13th 28/1
10 Oct 26 York Shadow Road (IRE)J: David Egan Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 10.5f · Soft · 18 ran 12th 16/1
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Gunfighter (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 3rd 5/6F
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Havana Touch (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 1st 6/4F
09 Oct 26 York Final Night (GB)J: M. P. Sheehy William Hill Gold Weekend Autumn Mile Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 2nd 40/1
08 Oct 26 Ayr Ghost Story (IRE)J: Mason Paetel Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 9/2
05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kaaranah (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Butler's strike rate?
John Butler has won 217 of 2,141 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Butler do best at?
York by strike rate: 6 wins from 37 runners (16.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Butler?
Luke Morris, with 196 runners since 2022 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.2%).
Is John Butler in form?
In the last 14 days: 19 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 15.8%. That is above the baseline of 10.1% since 2022.
What is John Butler's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 2,133 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).