Horse profile
Guesstimate (GB)
by Sea The Moon (GER) out of Approximate (GB) (Dubawi)
11 runs · 10 courses · from Oct 2025
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Won at Nottingham
Beaten favourite LTO
Ran yesterday · 11th of 11
Last raced off OR 73
KTB Profile
Guesstimate (GB) is 1 from 11, the win coming at Class 4 level. The win came on turf — 0 from 6 on the all-weather. Last raced off a career-high mark of 73.
Based on 11 archived runs · run-style from 4 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Won on turf, 0 on AW
Win at Class 4
OR at career high
- 1–11Wins / Runs
- 9.1%Strike rate
- 6 (54.5%)Placed
- −8.12£1 level staken=11 at SP
- 0.58Fair A/E n=11 · 0.49 incl. margin
- 73Highest OR
- 36dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating73At career-high mark
73
69–73
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 100
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 6 | 100B | 75 | 6 · 100 / 75 |
| Good | 3 | 85A | 68 | 3 · 85 / 68 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 86C | 72 | 2 · 86 / 72 |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 7 | 100B | 68 | 7 · 100 / 68 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 86B | 64 | 3 · 86 / 64 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 11 figures from 11 runs · as at 18 Oct 2026 · 1 recent figure provisional (may move for 7 days) · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 4 analysed runs
- Held up 2 (50%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (25%) · 1 win
- Prominent 1 (25%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Sea The Moon (GER)
Progeny in our archive have won 12.1% of 4,524 runs since Jan 2008 (500 horses).
Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.1% from 802.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 10 | 1 | 10% | −2.1 | — |
| Good to Firm | 404 | 51 | 12.6% | +0.5 | 1 from 2 |
| Good | 1,048 | 128 | 12.2% | +0.1 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 619 | 85 | 13.7% | +1.6 | — |
| Soft | 860 | 102 | 11.9% | −0.2 | — |
| Heavy | 316 | 39 | 12.3% | +0.2 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,267 | 140 | 11% | −1.1 | 0 from 6 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 64 | 9 | 14.1% | +2 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 684 | 68 | 9.9% | −2.2 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,016 | 97 | 9.5% | −2.6 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,527 | 197 | 12.9% | +0.8 | 1 from 7 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 802 | 121 | 15.1% | +3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 349 | 49 | 14% | +1.9 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 73 | 5 | 6.8% | −5.3 | — |
| Over 3m | 9 | 0 | 0% | −12.1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.88 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 7 | 1 | 14% | −4.12 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Nottingham | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.88 |
| Redcar | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 7 | 1 | 14% | −4.12 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cieren Fallon | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tom Marquand | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Daniel Tudhope | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ross Coakley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Harry Davies | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.88 |
| Jason Hart | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Pat Dobbs | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Harry Burns | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 1 | 11% | −6.12 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 26+22d | Newcastle (AW) | Northumbria Leisure For Gaming Machines Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) Settled in behind the main bunch - niggled along in the back half - gave up the chase 2f out and trailed home 11th | 11/11 | 11 | 9-3 | 73 | -23C | 55C | Daniel Tudhope | 3/1F |
| 24 Sep 26+29d | Southwell (AW) | Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap Stakes Settled midpack early - began closing ground with two furlongs left - hit front and clipped approaching final furlong - overtaken soon after - kept trying but outpaced towards line | 2/12 | 1 | 9-7 | 72 | 99A | 76A | Ross Coakley | 6/1 |
| 26 Aug 26+15d | Newbury | Sheldrake Training Limited 'train An Apprentice' Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) Settled towards the back fighting for control - improved and edged out wide 4f out - lost ground final furlong to finish 7th | 7/7 | 14 | 9-2 | 73 | 58C | 48C | Tom Marquand | 7/1 |
| 11 Aug 26+25d | Lingfield (AW) | British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) Held up towards the back - urged into contention approaching 2f out - flew home in the final stages to snatch second close home | 2/9 | 1½ | 8-10 | 72 | 100B | 73A | Cieren Fallon | 8/1 |
| 17 Jul 26+28d | Nottingham | British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race) led from the start - controlled the tempo throughout - driven clear 1f out and ran on strongly - had matters in hand when pressed towards the finish | 1/5 | 9-2 | 70 | 86C | 80B | Harry Davies | 15/8 | |
| 19 Jun 26+27d | Redcar | Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Slow to break - settled towards the back - found run stopped for space over 2f out - unable to threaten leaders and lost touch in the closing stages | 5/9 | 1½ | 9-1 | 72 | 68B | 57A | Jason Hart | 11/2 |
| 23 May 26+18d | Goodwood | Darley British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Settled towards the back early - found space and made progress under pressure over 2f out - chased the front-runner inside the final furlong but couldn't get on terms | 3/8 | 1¼ | 9-0 | 69 | 66A | 76A | Pat Dobbs | 9/2 |
| 05 May 26+29d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Get Raceday Ready Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Held a midpack spot early - moved up into third with 2f left and pressed for a run - took over second briefly a furlong out - edged back to finish third | 3/6 | shd | 9-0 | 70 | 62B | 70B | Tom Marquand | 15/2 |
| 06 Apr 26+138d | Kempton (AW) | Virgin Bet Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Took a strong hold early - hit front - driven and lost advantage over a furlong out - dropped away late to finish 10th | 10/10 | 1 | 9-1 | — | 64A | 50A | Cieren Fallon | 2/1F |
| 19 Nov 25+28d | Kempton (AW) | British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Sent to front early - kicked on with two furlongs left - driven out approaching the final furlong - pressed hard close home and edged out near the line - beaten into second | 2/13 | 1¼ | 9-0 | — | 86B | 73A | Harry Burns | 5/1 |
| 22 Oct 25 | Newmarket | Free Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Sat close up early - moved right and pressed on approaching 2f out - held in 3rd late without gaining ground finishing third | 3/11 | 7 | 9-0 | — | 85A | 64A | Cieren Fallon | 10/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Guesstimate (GB) won?
- Guesstimate (GB) won 1 of 11 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 9.1%. Placed 6 times in total (54.5% of starts).
- Who trains Guesstimate (GB)?
- Guesstimate (GB) is trained by William Haggas, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 16 October 2026.
- Who is Guesstimate (GB)'s sire?
- Guesstimate (GB) is by Sea The Moon (GER) out of Approximate (GB), whose sire is Dubawi.
- What is Guesstimate (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 73, from the run on 16 October 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Guesstimate (GB)'s sire's record?
- Sea The Moon (GER)'s progeny in our archive have won 12.1% of 4,524 runs since Jan 2008 (500 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.1% from 802.
- Who are Guesstimate (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Approximate (GB), Guesstimate (GB) has 1 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.