What is Harry Davies's strike rate?

Harry Davies has won 300 of 2,450 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harry Davies do best at?

Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 23 wins from 146 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Harry Davies ride most for?

Simon & Ed Crisford, with 388 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 62 (16%).

Is Harry Davies in form?

In the last 14 days: 38 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 5.3%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2022.

What is Harry Davies's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 2,440 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Harry Davies

2,450 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,561 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)

from 1 Jan 2022

300–2,450

Wins / Runs

12.2%

Strike rate

n=2,450

788 (32%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=2,440 · 0.87 incl. margin

−389.51

£1 level stake

n=2,450 at SP · −15.9%

£5.46m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 490 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (309 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,450 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep Fresh horses: 13.5% 30.5% when favourite Simon & Ed Crisford: 16% from 388 LTO winners: 19.4% Claiming: 13.4% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

It is weakest at York (3.7% over 54 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.4% (n=309, Fair A/E 1.11), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=278, Fair A/E 1.06). In Group and Graded company the record are the standout value angle: 11.8% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.25 and +19.38 to a £1 stake over 119 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 2 from 38 rides in the last 14 days (5.3%, 6.9pts below the 12.2% baseline). Simon & Ed Crisford supplies 16% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16% vs 12.2%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Howden Challenge Cup at Ascot (Oct 2023, £92,772). The standout partner of the record: Rogue Diplomat (IRE) — 6 wins from 11 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11%−1.2

n=1,560 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −320.43

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.4%+7.2

n=309 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +51.27

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.5%+1.3

n=319 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +199.25

When favourite

30.5%

n=275 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −60.42

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13.4%+1.2

n=648 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −154.51

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.5%−5.7

n=278 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −17.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.8%−0.4

n=119 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +19.38

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With James Owen 22.6% vs 12.2% · n=93

With Charlie Appleby 23.4% vs 12.2% · n=64

On last-time-out winners 19.4% vs 12.2% · n=309

With David Menuisier 23.5% vs 12.2% · n=34

With S Woods 23.5% vs 12.2% · n=34

At York 3.7% vs 12.2% · n=54

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 8.3% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,028 128 12.5% −182.47

Good to Firm 486 60 12.3% −130.29

Good 485 65 13.4% +70.89

Good to Soft 218 21 9.6% −94.21

Soft 202 20 9.9% −52.26

Heavy 28 5 17.9% −1.67

Firm 3 1 33.3% +0.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 280 26 9.3% −78.14

Wolverhampton (AW) 237 31 13.1% −24.75

Chelmsford (AW) 155 24 15.5% −8.60

Lingfield (AW) 146 23 15.8% −16.16

Yarmouth 138 20 14.5% −44.00

Southwell (AW) 131 14 10.7% −30.25

Newmarket 128 19 14.8% +11.00

Ascot 99 7 7.1% −11.30

Newmarket 90 13 14.4% +12.25

Newcastle (AW) 79 10 12.7% −24.57

Goodwood 76 9 11.8% −26.39

Windsor 75 9 12% −19.63

Chester 68 10 14.7% −7.45

Haydock 64 9 14.1% +22.75

Nottingham 62 5 8.1% −25.79

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 672 94 14% +1.91

Class 5 665 84 12.6% −224.06

Class 6 401 38 9.5% −122.86

Class 2 323 36 11.1% −4.84

Class 3 270 34 12.6% −59.04

Class 1 119 14 11.8% +19.38

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 320 96 30% 0.96 −60.17

2nd–3rd fav 635 115 18.1% 1.07 −53.84

4th–6th fav 827 74 8.9% 1.13 −44.50

7th+ in betting 668 15 2.2% 0.66 −231.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Intervention (GB) 15 4 6 2 Nov 26

Under The Twilight (GB) 14 4 6 29 Aug 26

Rogue Diplomat (IRE) 11 6 8 22 Aug 26

Way To Dubai (IRE) 10 0 3 1 Jul 26

Arabian Dusk (GB) 9 1 4 13 Sep 26

Bradman (GB) 9 0 1 25 Mar 24

Balthamos (GB) 8 0 2 30 Jan 26

Sea Scout (IRE) 7 2 2 29 Aug 26

Baldomero (IRE) 7 2 3 10 Aug 26

High On Hope (GB) 7 2 2 28 Mar 26

Liseo (IRE) 7 1 1 15 Oct 24

Cavalry Call (IRE) 7 1 2 30 Sep 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,561 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 38 5.3% · −6.9pts vs baseline

Last 14 days5.3%

5-season base12.2%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

151312161210111513101212

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSimon & Ed Crisford

16% of all rides
16% SR · A/E 1.02

TrainerRWSR£1

Simon & Ed Crisford 388 62 16% −58.32

Hugo Palmer 195 19 9.7% −49.67

Andrew Balding 137 12 8.8% −65.20

Michael Appleby 120 16 13.3% +16.24

Charlie Fellowes 110 13 11.8% −30.53

James Owen 93 21 22.6% +86.68

William Haggas 73 12 16.4% −26.68

Charlie Appleby 64 15 23.4% −8.33

Marco Botti 47 6 12.8% −9.75

Hughie Morrison 47 6 12.8% −7.50

Jane Chapple-Hyam 36 5 13.9% −7.75

David Menuisier 34 8 23.5% +16.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→

300

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.46m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 67 wins

Atrium (GB) — Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Oct 2023 · Class 2

£92,772

Rogue Diplomat (IRE) — Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Str) Ascot · Jun 2026 · Class 2

£90,195

East India Dock (GB) — Ladbrokes Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Chester · May 2025 · Class 2

£86,632

Notable horses

Rogue Diplomat (IRE) Intervention (GB) Under The Twilight (GB) Inverlochy (FR) Priscilla's Wish (GB) Tribal Chief (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 10.6% · 7–66

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Dark Angel (IRE) 10.9% · 7–64

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Night Of Thunder (IRE) 17.6% · 9–51

Progeny have won 16.3% of 5,119 runs since 2019 (564 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 160.

Havana Grey (GB) 16.3% · 8–49

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,611 runs since 2022 (420 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.9% from 424.

Sea The Stars (IRE) 16.7% · 8–48

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,985 runs since 2013 (1,118 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.4% from 457. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Blue Point (IRE) 21.7% · 10–46

Progeny have won 14% of 3,447 runs since 2023 (418 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.4% from 212.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,450 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,450 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 January 2022 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Cameclose (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 8/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Tam Lin (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 2/1F

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Just Zain (GB)T: Jonathan Portman ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 50/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Teggy Lasso (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Midnite Building The Future Of Betting Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 9/2

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Quite Simple (AUS)T: Simon & Ed Crisford AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 12/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Taran Bolta (GB)T: Jonathan Portman Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7.5f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 66/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Turtle Star (GB)T: Jonathan Portman All-Weather Championship Is Back Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 14/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Wild Rosie (GB)T: Chris Dwyer Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 40/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Muy Muy Loco (IRE)T: Simon Dow Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 17/2

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Law Of Design (IRE)T: Ian Williams racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 17/2

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Al Jolson (GB)T: Simon & Ed Crisford Watch Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 10/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Maharajas Express (GB)T: Ian Williams Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Man Of Desert (GB)T: Chris Dwyer Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 22/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Intervention (GB)T: Michael Appleby ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 6/4F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Under Arrest (GB)T: William Haggas Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 4/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Diplomata (GB)T: William Haggas British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 66/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Mezzo Forte (IRE)T: William Haggas Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 3rd 28/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Rogue Millions (GB)T: James Owen Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 25/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Palace Rose (IRE)T: William Haggas Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 18/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Carbine Country (IRE)T: William Haggas Westminster-137 Grosser Preis Von Berlin Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 11/10F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 8 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Harry Davies's strike rate?: Harry Davies has won 300 of 2,450 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Davies do best at?: Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 23 wins from 146 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Harry Davies ride most for?: Simon & Ed Crisford, with 388 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 62 (16%).
Is Harry Davies in form?: In the last 14 days: 38 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 5.3%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2022.
What is Harry Davies's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 2,440 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.