What is Bastien Marchand's strike rate?

Bastien Marchand has won 11 of 175 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Bastien Marchand do best at?

Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 77 rides (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Is Bastien Marchand in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Bastien Marchand's Fair A/E?

0.89, from 174 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Bastien Marchand

175 rides in the last 5 seasons · 113 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 99% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

11–175

Wins / Runs

6.3%

Strike rate

n=175

35 (20%)

Placed

0.89

Fair A/E

n=174 · 0.74 incl. margin

−71.60

£1 level stake

n=174 at SP · −41.1%

£430k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.89). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 9% off breaks of two months or more (47 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 175 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 8.5% Claiming: 7.3%

The read

The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 3.1% over 32 rides, 3.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Heavy going: Fair A/E 0.54 across 88 rides (3.4% strike, −57.70 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.3%+0.0

n=112 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −47.55

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

22.2%+15.9

n=9 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +1.60

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.5%+2.2

n=47 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +23.90

When favourite

50%

n=10 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +4.75

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.3%+1.0

n=96 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −34.90

Big fields · 14+ runners

6%−0.3

n=50 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −14.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.3

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Heavy going 3.4% vs 6.3% · n=88

With horses switching code 2.8% vs 6.3% · n=36

Off a 31-60-day break 3.1% vs 6.3% · n=32

Off a 15-30-day break 9.1% vs 6.3% · n=44

At Compiegne (FR) 3.8% vs 6.3% · n=53

With Yannick Fouin 8.9% vs 6.3% · n=45

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 133 9 6.8% −66.50

Chase 41 2 4.9% −4.10

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Heavy 88 3 3.4% −57.70

Soft 83 7 8.4% −13.65

Good 3 0 0% −2.00

Good to Soft 1 1 100% +1.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Auteuil (FR) 77 5 6.5% −34.30

Compiegne (FR) 53 2 3.8% −43.40

Fontainebleau (FR) 11 1 9.1% −7.75

Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) 10 1 10% +5.10

Dieppe (FR) 8 0 0% −8.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 8 1 12.5% +21.00

Lyon Parilly (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Strasbourg (FR) 2 1 50% +0.75

Vittel (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Wissembourg (FR) 1 0 0% —

Saint-Cloud (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00

Class 4 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 11 5 45.5% 1.56 +3.75

2nd–3rd fav 18 2 11.1% 0.71 −7.45

4th–6th fav 43 1 2.3% 0.30 −35.10

7th+ in betting 102 3 2.9% 1.00 −32.80

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.3% completed · 171 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 41 90.2% 2 1 1 0 0

Hurdle 130 87.7% 6 2 8 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tramontane (FR) 8 0 0 24 Mar 25

Kimarillo (FR) 5 1 3 30 Sep 26

Mon Emperor (IRE) 5 0 1 20 Oct 25

Sail Rock (FR) 4 0 1 6 Nov 26

Mercinette (FR) 4 0 3 27 May 23

Celestin Mercury (FR) 4 0 0 23 Apr 23

Mossy Walsh (IRE) 3 1 1 11 Nov 26

Messy (FR) 3 1 2 29 Oct 25

Kathleen (FR) 3 0 0 2 Oct 25

Messi Blue (FR) 3 1 2 21 May 23

Lignou (FR) 3 0 1 19 Mar 23

Makani Du Fenoir (FR) 2 0 0 29 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 113 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

0041270130154010

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardYannick Fouin

26% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

Yannick Fouin 45 4 8.9% +2.80

M Seror 36 2 5.6% −30.00

D Windrif 34 2 5.9% −28.60

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

Archived wins

£447k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 4 wins

Messy (FR) — Prix du Commandant Bossut (Chase) (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Mar 2025

£23,430

Autorizia (FR) — Prix Saint-Etienne-de-Corcoue (Hurdle) (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Sep 2022

£20,798

Messi Blue (FR) — Prix Carmont (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · May 2023

£16,726

Notable horses

Woods (FR) Kimarillo (FR) Messy (FR) Messi Blue (FR) Mossy Walsh (IRE) Mado (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Gemix (FR) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 10.4% of 734 runs since 2019 (125 horses).

Great Pretender (IRE) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,557 runs since 2010 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 152.

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,888 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Masked Marvel (GB) 20% · 1–5

Progeny have won 15.4% of 1,651 runs since 2019 (270 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 19.8% from 293.

Petillo (FR) 20% · 1–5

Progeny have won 4.6% of 131 runs since 2020 (18 horses).

Romanised (IRE) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 8.5% of 658 runs since 2024 (115 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.3% from 227. Weakest on Soft going: 4.7% from 149.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 185 · newest first

The latest 50 of 185 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 November 2020 to 11 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Nov 26 Compiegne (FR) Mossy Walsh (IRE)T: M Seror Prix Chakhansoor(finale Paris Turf Du Chmpt Des App. & Jeunes Jockeys)19f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 7/1

11 Nov 26 Compiegne (FR) The Prince (FR)T: S Foucher Prix Huron17f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 10/1

11 Nov 26 Compiegne (FR) Chez Castel (IRE)T: M Seror Prix Paulette Rolland (Prix Speranza)17f · Heavy · 17 ran 4th 22/1

11 Nov 26 Compiegne (FR) Yiddish (FR)T: M Seror Prix Lycoming17f · Heavy · 12 ran F 20/1

06 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Sail Rock (FR)T: M Seror Prix De La Chambre De Commerce Et D'industrie De Seine Et Marne17.5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 11/2

30 Oct 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Meleze Des Ciel (FR)T: Alexis Acker Prix Des Monts Du LyonnaisClass 4 · 17f · Very Soft · 13 ran 11th 11/1

29 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Makani Du Fenoir (FR)T: F Bellemere Prix Du Massif Forestier17.5f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 14/1

29 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Nymphea Du Fenoir (FR)T: F Bellemere Prix Patrice QuenedeyClass 4 · 17.5f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Mossy Walsh (IRE)T: M Seror Prix De La Route Des 2 Soeurs (chmpt Paris Turf Des App. & J. Jock.)17.5f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 9/4

28 Oct 26 Auteuil (FR) Souris Bleue (FR)T: Mlle D Wunderlich Prix FrascatiClass 3 · 18f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 18/1

06 Oct 26 Auteuil (FR) Scilla (FR)T: M Seror Prix Hipparque18f · Heavy · 9 ran — 18/1

06 Oct 26 Auteuil (FR) Panama Lux (FR)T: M Seror Prix De Nantes17.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 8/1

04 Oct 26 Strasbourg (FR) Pham (FR)T: Alexis Acker Prix Mid DancerClass 4 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 16/1

03 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Nectar Des Dieux (FR)T: M Seror Prix Du Carrefour De L'obelisqueClass 4 · 17.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 22/1

03 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Sail Rock (FR)T: M Seror Prix De L'association Des Amis Du Musee Du Cheval MilitaireClass 4 · 18f · Heavy · 8 ran 7th 6/1

03 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Makao'k (FR)T: Yannick Fouin Prix D'amiens18f · Heavy · 7 ran 4th 12/1

03 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Meursault Charme (FR)T: Yannick Fouin Prix Pierre Debroise17.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 11/2

01 Oct 26 Auteuil (FR) Bulreo Desjy (FR)T: M Seror Prix Royal Junior17.5f · Very Soft · 13 ran 6th 12/1

30 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Kimarillo (FR)T: F Bellemere Prix De Salers19.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 7/1

30 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Makani Du Fenoir (FR)T: F Bellemere Prix Bay Archer18f · Heavy · 12 ran 7th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Bastien Marchand's strike rate?: Bastien Marchand has won 11 of 175 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Bastien Marchand do best at?: Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 77 rides (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Bastien Marchand in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Bastien Marchand's Fair A/E?: 0.89, from 174 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.