What is Billy Cray's strike rate?

Billy Cray has won 80 of 1,101 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Billy Cray do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 18 wins from 156 rides (11.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Billy Cray ride most for?

David Nicholls, with 215 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (9.3%).

What is Billy Cray's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 1,092 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Billy Cray

1,101 rides in the lifetime window · 486 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2014 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

80–1,101

Wins / Runs

7.3%

Strike rate

n=1,101

221 (20%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=1,092 · 0.87 incl. margin

−221.37

£1 level stake

n=1,101 at SP · −20.1%

£441k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 160 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (93 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,101 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Mar 31.3% when favourite David Nicholls: 9.3% from 215 LTO winners: 17.2% Claiming: 7.4% Rode the favourite in 3% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.2% (n=93, Fair A/E 1.19), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=139, Fair A/E 0.61). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −93.00 to a £1 stake over 172 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Nicholls supplied 20% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.3% vs 7.3%, A/E 0.92). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.1% over 95 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 0.49 across 267 rides (3% strike, −188.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The standout partner of the record was Justcallmehandsome (GB) — 7 wins from 31 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.4%−1.9

n=482 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −191.72

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.2%+9.9

n=93 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +8.60

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.9%−4.4

n=139 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −91.75

When favourite

31.3%

n=32 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −3.62

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.4%+0.1

n=1,033 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −208.37

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.5%−3.8

n=172 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −93.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.3

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 17.2% vs 7.3% · n=93

With Dominic Ffrench Davis 13.7% vs 7.3% · n=139

With Alan Berry 0.8% vs 7.3% · n=118

With debutants 0% vs 7.3% · n=36

On Good to Firm going 3% vs 7.3% · n=267

Off a 61-180-day break 2.1% vs 7.3% · n=95

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 455 46 10.1% −20.25

Good to Firm 267 8 3% −188.00

Good 201 15 7.5% −4.12

Good to Soft 94 4 4.3% −45.00

Soft 57 2 3.5% −29.00

Heavy 14 2 14.3% +47.00

Firm 13 3 23.1% +18.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 184 21 11.4% −10.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 156 18 11.5% +14.50

Lingfield (AW) 57 3 5.3% −2.00

Kempton (AW) 47 3 6.4% −15.50

Ayr 44 2 4.5% −20.00

Beverley 43 2 4.7% −31.50

Redcar 39 4 10.3% +4.00

Catterick 39 1 2.6% −32.00

Doncaster 36 1 2.8% +15.00

Thirsk 35 1 2.9% −14.00

Newcastle 32 2 6.3% −5.00

Musselburgh 30 1 3.3% −13.00

Pontefract 30 2 6.7% −4.00

Bath 29 1 3.4% −22.00

Haydock 27 1 3.7% −15.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 426 32 7.5% −130.12

Class 6 412 34 8.3% +12.50

Class 4 157 11 7% −35.25

Class 3 51 1 2% −40.00

Class 2 44 2 4.5% −17.50

Class 7 9 0 0% −9.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 41 11 26.8% 0.93 −7.62

2nd–3rd fav 158 27 17.1% 1.13 +3.75

4th–6th fav 328 20 6.1% 0.77 −93.50

7th+ in betting 574 22 3.8% 1.19 −124.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Brandywell Boy (IRE) 40 6 10 13 Feb 14

Justcallmehandsome (GB) 31 7 8 25 Apr 13

Dr Red Eye (GB) 21 4 11 13 Sep 13

Tanforan (GB) 20 2 6 24 Jun 10

Kingaroo (IRE) 14 4 6 8 May 13

Blessed Place (GB) 14 2 4 3 Jul 10

Even Stevens (GB) 12 3 4 31 Aug 13

Cadeaux Pearl (GB) 11 1 2 21 Jul 13

Six Wives (GB) 11 1 2 8 May 13

Indian Skipper (IRE) 11 1 4 29 May 10

Piceno (IRE) 10 1 4 28 Aug 13

Man Of My Word (GB) 10 0 2 22 May 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 486 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

916117687427712

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Nicholls

20% of all rides
9.3% SR · A/E 0.92

TrainerRWSR£1

David Nicholls 215 20 9.3% −54.25

Dominic Ffrench Davis 139 19 13.7% +73.75

Richard Guest 125 9 7.2% +34.00

Alan Berry 118 1 0.8% −103.00

Scott Dixon 57 3 5.3% −28.50

Brian Baugh 44 2 4.5% −15.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

£442k

Prize money

2010

Best season · 30 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Evens And Odds (IRE) — Bluesq.com Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) Goodwood · Jul 2010 · Class 2

£62,310

Dr Red Eye (GB) — Matthew Clark Handicap Chester · May 2013 · Class 2

£14,232

Dr Red Eye (GB) — Cruise Nightspot Handicap Chester · May 2013 · Class 4

£7,763

Notable horses

Justcallmehandsome (GB) Brandywell Boy (IRE) Dr Red Eye (GB) Kingaroo (IRE) Even Stevens (GB) Tanforan (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Danetime (IRE) 15% · 6–40

Progeny have won 11.1% of 2,846 runs since 2008 (149 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 218.

Handsome Ridge (GB) 22.6% · 7–31

Progeny have won 10.2% of 98 runs since 2008 (1 horse).

Compton Place (GB) 7.7% · 2–26

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Dr Fong (USA) 16% · 4–25

Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,593 runs since 2008 (350 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 158.

Kyllachy (GB) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Captain Rio (GB) 0% · 0–22

Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,112 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,112 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 October 2006 to 24 October 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Oct 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Tantric Lady (GB)T: Alan McCabe Monsterbet Selling StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 100/1

17 Oct 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Rocky Hill Ridge (GB)T: Alan McCabe Metatek Aluminium Number Plate Solution Classified StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 100/1

30 Sep 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Tantric Lady (GB)T: Alan McCabe Sporting Lisbon V Chelsea Price Boost At Bookies.com NurseryClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 50/1

26 Sep 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Princess P (GB)T: Alan McCabe Bet toteexacta Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 50/1

24 Sep 14 Redcar Tantric Lady (GB)T: Alan McCabe Hold Your Christmas Party Here NurseryClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 16th 25/1

15 Sep 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Lord Buffhead (GB)T: Richard Guest Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 20/1

13 Sep 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Sofias Number One (USA)T: Roy Bowring Book Hospitality At Wolverhampton Racecourse HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 14/1

07 Sep 14 York Masterful Act (USA)T: Alan McCabe Castles UK Educational And Residential Furniture HandicapClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 11th 33/1

05 Sep 14 Newcastle Lewamy (IRE)T: John Best WaterAid Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 6th 28/1

05 Sep 14 Newcastle Divertimenti (IRE)T: Roy Bowring ESH Construction HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th 9/1

01 Sep 14 Leicester Divertimenti (IRE)T: Roy Bowring Six Hills HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 4th 12/1

25 Aug 14 Warwick Divertimenti (IRE)T: Roy Bowring Cathie Matecki's Diamond Jubilee HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 12/1

21 Aug 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Spoken Words (GB)T: John David Riches William Beardshaw 'Not Forgotten' Memorial HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1

21 Aug 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Monsieur Rouge (IRE)T: Alan McCabe 10 Free Bet At 32redsport.com Maiden Auction StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1

21 Aug 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Avonmore Star (GB)T: Alan McCabe 32red Casino HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 25/1

20 Aug 14 Southwell (AW) Loma Mor (GB)T: Alan McCabe In Memory Of Nev Hardy HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 20/1

19 Aug 14 Leicester Sofias Number One (USA)T: Roy Bowring Foster's Gold HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 13 ran 8th 12/1

18 Aug 14 Kempton (AW) Red Flute (GB)T: Alan McCabe British Stallion Studs Ebf Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 100/1

12 Aug 14 Nottingham Divertimenti (IRE)T: Roy Bowring Racing Uk Anywhere Available Now HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 1st 25/1

07 Aug 14 Southwell (AW) Sofias Number One (USA)T: Roy Bowring Shane W Darby Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Billy Cray's strike rate?: Billy Cray has won 80 of 1,101 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Billy Cray do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 18 wins from 156 rides (11.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Billy Cray ride most for?: David Nicholls, with 215 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (9.3%).
What is Billy Cray's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 1,092 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.