No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rode around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.16). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 14% off breaks of two months or more (37 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 181 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 13.5%Claiming: 8.2%
The read
It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (0% over 34 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 13.5% (n=37, Fair A/E 2.22). The rider also read well over 1m – 1m1f (14.3%, n=49) and on Good to Firm going (12.8%, n=39). The record read poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 3.1% over 64 rides, 4.6pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7.2%−0.5
n=97 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +56.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
16.7%+9.0
n=12 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −4.17
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
13.5%+5.8
n=37 · A/E 2.22 · £1 +108.50
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +0.75
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.2%+0.5
n=159 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −34.92
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.3%−2.4
n=19 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Lingfield (AW)0% vs 7.7% · n=34
Over 1m – 1m1f14.3% vs 7.7% · n=49
Over 1m2f – 1m4f3.1% vs 7.7% · n=64
With Sheena West13.3% vs 7.7% · n=30
On Good to Firm going12.8% vs 7.7% · n=39
Off a 15-30-day break4.2% vs 7.7% · n=48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)9355.4%+25.50
Good to Firm39512.8%+11.83
Good to Soft1715.9%−4.00
Good1600%−16.00
Soft1119.1%−7.50
Firm4250%+1.25
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)3525.7%+4.00
Lingfield (AW)3400%−34.00
Lingfield14214.3%−6.25
Wolverhampton (AW)14214.3%−1.50
Brighton1119.1%−7.50
Windsor600%−6.00
Folkestone6233.3%+1.00
Newmarket600%−6.00
Southwell (AW)500%−5.00
Sandown500%−5.00
Leicester4125%+30.00
Salisbury4125%+0.33
Goodwood400%−4.00
Chelmsford (AW)400%−4.00
Chester400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57767.8%+7.00
Class 67279.7%+30.75
Class 42613.8%−21.67
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 7200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11327.3%0.94−2.25
2nd–3rd fav18633.3%1.99+11.33
4th–6th fav4824.2%0.64+32.00
7th+ in betting10432.9%1.07−31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f6423.1%−54.17
1m – 1m1f49714.3%+17.50
6f – 7f4324.7%+58.00
1m5f – 2m1915.3%−16.75
Under 6f4125%+4.50
2m1f – 2m4f2150%+1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085459.3%−21.17
20111400%−14.00
20123126.5%+0.50
201317317.6%−7.75
20141600%−16.00
201530310%+20.50
20161915.3%+48.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps118108.5%−11.92
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners5723.5%−28.00
8-10 runners5647.1%−22.50
5-7 runners40410%+37.58
14-16 runners1715.9%+17.00
2-4 runners9333.3%+8.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 103 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
60001414711013013
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
20
Archived wins
£80,925
Prize money
2007
Best season · 6 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Press The Button (GER) — Castlepoint Supports Dorset-Somerset Air Ambulance Handicap Salisbury · Jul 2008 · Class 4
£6,800
Top Mark (GB) — Weatherbys Finance Apprentice Handicap (Round 3) Kempton (AW) · Jun 2007 · Class 4
£4,728
Intrepid (IRE) — Join In The Fun At facebook.com/attheraces Handicap Leicester · Jun 2015 · Class 5
Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Cape Cross (IRE)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Bold Fact (USA)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 7.7% of 898 runs since 2008 (53 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.8% from 186.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Alhaarth (IRE)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 246 · newest first
The latest 50 of 246 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 February 2006 to 16 December 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Harry Poulton's strike rate?
Harry Poulton has won 14 of 181 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Poulton do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 rides (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Harry Poulton's Fair A/E?
1.16, from 178 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Harry Poulton·SR 7.7%·A/E 1.16
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