Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.41). With a claiming rider up the record reads 11% (70 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 125 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceRhiain Ingram: 11.9% from 67Claiming riders: 11.4%
The read
The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (12.2%, n=49), clear of the yard's 8.8% baseline. Rhiain Ingram rides 54% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.9% vs 8.8%, A/E 2.37) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The stable star of the record: Buxton (GB) — 8 wins from 93 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%−3.5
n=19 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +4.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
57.1%
n=7 · A/E 2.02 · £1 +5.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.4%+2.6
n=70 · A/E 2.02 · £1 −15.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking2.4% vs 8.8% · n=41
At Lingfield (AW)12.2% vs 8.8% · n=49
With Rhiain Ingram11.9% vs 8.8% · n=67
With claiming riders up11.4% vs 8.8% · n=70
Over 1m – 1m1f6.3% vs 8.8% · n=32
On Standard (AW) going10.6% vs 8.8% · n=94 · A/E 1.46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat124118.9%−31.30
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)941010.6%−12.30
Good to Firm1500%−15.00
Good800%−8.00
Soft6116.7%+5.00
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)49612.2%+12.45
Chelmsford City (AW)19210.5%−10.50
Kempton (AW)1500%−15.00
Windsor10110%+1.00
Wolverhampton (AW)9222.2%+2.75
Brighton900%−9.00
Lingfield500%−5.00
Southwell (AW)200%−2.00
Bath200%−2.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Yarmouth100%−1.00
Epsom Downs100%−1.00
Leicester100%−1.00
Market Rasen100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6981010.2%−16.30
Class 52500%−25.00
Class 42150%+9.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7457.1%2.02+5.20
2nd–3rd fav19315.8%1.01+3.50
4th–6th fav16212.5%1.82+6.00
7th+ in betting8322.4%1.14−47.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f38410.5%−3.30
6f – 7f3837.9%−26.75
1m – 1m1f3226.3%−19.25
1m5f – 2m9111.1%+14.00
Under 6f8112.5%+3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202244613.6%+20.50
202349510.2%−20.80
20243200%−32.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9466.4%−44.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners54611.1%−9.25
11-13 runners5135.9%−16.25
5-7 runners1119.1%−8.80
14-16 runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners11100%+10.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 21 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Victor Dartnall (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
422001018929003310
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
90
Archived wins
£539k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 13 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sky Crusader (GB) — Vodafone Group Services Handicap Epsom Downs · Jun 2005 · Class 2
£20,300
Tears Of A Clown (GB) — British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Windsor · May 2023 · Class 4
£5,373
Dukes Meadow (GB) — Totepool Supporting The Sport You Love Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Nov 2015 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,588 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 557. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,736 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.7% from 115. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 212.
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,366 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,657 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,657 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 3 October 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Roger Ingram's strike rate?
Roger Ingram has won 11 of 125 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Ingram do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 49 runners (12.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Ingram?
Rhiain Ingram, with 67 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (11.9%).
What is Roger Ingram's Fair A/E?
1.41, from 124 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Roger Ingram·SR 8.8%·A/E 1.41
KTB
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