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Trainer profile

Michael Squance

485 runners in the lifetime window · 68 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2019 97% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
37–485
Wins / Runs
7.6%
Strike rate
n=485
114 (24%)
Placed
0.99
Fair A/E
n=483 · 0.84 incl. margin
−142.37
£1 level stake
n=485 at SP · −29.4%
£166k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99).

Deterministic profile computed from 485 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Oct–Nov Fresh horses: 7.8% 29.7% when favourite Luke Morris: 8.7% from 69 Sent off the favourite in 8% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (10.8%, n=120), clear of the yard's 7.6% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 1.8% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.29). Luke Morris rode 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 0.83). The record read poorly on Good to Soft going — 3.1% over 32 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 0.65 across 73 runners (4.1% strike, −43.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Diplomatic (IRE) — 9 wins from 44 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.8%+0.2
n=64 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +8.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
1.8%−5.8
n=55 · A/E 0.29 · £1 −52.25
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
9.5%+1.9
n=21 · A/E 1.46 · £1 −13.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.6
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
When favourite
29.7%
n=37 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +1.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.4%−3.2
n=91 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −45.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 18.4% vs 7.6% · n=38
With new recruits 1.8% vs 7.6% · n=55
With Jimmy Quinn 2.8% vs 7.6% · n=36
On Good to Soft going 3.1% vs 7.6% · n=32
At Kempton (AW) 10.8% vs 7.6% · n=120
On Good to Firm going 4.1% vs 7.6% · n=73
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 469 37 7.9% −126.37
Hurdle 13 0 0% −13.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 309 26 8.4% −70.75
Good to Firm 73 3 4.1% −43.67
Good 49 4 8.2% +0.75
Good to Soft 32 1 3.1% −27.00
Soft 13 1 7.7% −11.20
Heavy 9 2 22.2% +9.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 120 13 10.8% +1.25
Wolverhampton (AW) 71 4 5.6% −46.75
Lingfield (AW) 68 7 10.3% +16.00
Yarmouth 51 2 3.9% −15.00
Southwell (AW) 42 2 4.8% −33.25
Newmarket 17 0 0% −17.00
Newmarket 14 0 0% −14.00
Leicester 10 2 20% −2.17
Nottingham 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Brighton 9 0 0% −9.00
Windsor 8 0 0% −8.00
Chelmsford (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Goodwood 7 1 14.3% +6.00
Newcastle 5 1 20% −3.20
Sandown 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 194 19 9.8% −11.62
Class 6 178 14 7.9% −47.75
Class 4 75 4 5.3% −45.00
Class 3 22 0 0% −22.00
Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 7 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 44 13 29.5% 1.22 +3.88
2nd–3rd fav 59 9 15.3% 1.01 +2.75
4th–6th fav 137 8 5.8% 0.78 −56.00
7th+ in betting 245 7 2.9% 0.92 −93.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Onceaponatime (IRE)from Ed Dunlop 62 3 21 12 Apr 13
Diplomatic (IRE) 44 9 16 27 Apr 15
Harrogate Fair (GB)then Kevin Morgan 38 6 12 31 May 15
Estonia (GB)from John Gosden 36 5 12 5 Aug 12
Averoo (GB)from Ed Dunlop 27 6 10 14 Aug 10
Lady Brickhouse (GB) 26 0 5 21 May 12
Shatter Resistant (IRE)from Jeremy Gask 17 0 3 27 Oct 08
Hessian (IRE)from Paul Howling 15 1 3 19 Nov 08
Dvinsky (USA)from Jane Chapple-Hyam · then Paul Howling 13 0 4 18 Oct 11
Safwaan (GB)from Gary Harrison 8 0 1 4 Apr 14
Lady Cricketer (GB)from Jane Chapple-Hyam 8 0 0 3 Oct 13
Gallantry (GB)from Jane Chapple-Hyam · then Paul Howling 8 0 0 5 Oct 11
The 60 most-raced of 68 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 49 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Jane Chapple-Hyam (11) and Giles Bravery (3); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

23 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul Howling (5) and Patrick Leech (3); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
2255410633017107
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLuke Morris
14% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 0.83
RiderRWSR£1
Luke Morris 69 6 8.7% −33.25
Jimmy Quinn 36 1 2.8% −32.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
37
Archived wins
£166k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 7 wins
Averoo (GB) — Charles Henry Memorial Handicap York · Jun 2010 · Class 4
£7,124
Countdown (GB) — Racing Uk Handicap Kempton (AW) · Oct 2008 · Class 4
£5,181
Onceaponatime (IRE) — Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Jan 2010 · Class 4
£4,533
Notable horses
Diplomatic (IRE) Harrogate Fair (GB) Averoo (GB) Estonia (GB) Onceaponatime (IRE) Gabrial's Wawa (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 4.8% · 3–62
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,807 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Exceed and Excel (AUS) 10.4% · 5–48
Progeny have won 11.8% of 16,019 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Cape Cross (IRE) 20.5% · 9–44
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Trade Fair (GB) 15.8% · 6–38
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,230 runs since 2008 (113 horses).
Averti (IRE) 22.2% · 6–27
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,137 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.6% from 110. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.6% from 140. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 5.6% from 162.
Choisir (AUS) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 485 · newest first

The latest 50 of 485 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2008 to 27 December 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
27 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Luke Morris Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 10/1
20 Dec 19 Southwell (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Luke Morris Bombardier Golden Beer HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 22/1
29 Nov 19 Southwell (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 8/1
21 Nov 19 Chelmsford City (AW) Cheerful (GB)J: Liam Jones Double Delight Hat-Trick Heaven At totesport.com HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 15 ran 10th 33/1
09 Nov 19 Southwell (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Luke Morris Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 18/1
15 Oct 19 Kempton (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Daniel Muscutt 32Red On The App Store Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 10th 66/1
01 Oct 19 Kempton (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Daniel Muscutt Matchbook Vip HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 9th 80/1
17 Sep 19 Yarmouth Victory Rose (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Grosvenor Casino Of Great Yarmouth HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 11/4F
07 Sep 19 Kempton (AW) Rock of Estonia (IRE)J: Shane Kelly Visit Sunracing.co.uk For Top Tips HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 11th 33/1
28 Aug 19 Kempton (AW) Victory Rose (GB)J: Andrew Elliott Bet At racingtv.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 3/1J
31 May 15 Nottingham Harrogate Fair (GB)J: Luke Morris Odds On Favourite DG Taxis 01159500500 HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 8/1
19 May 15 Nottingham Harrogate Fair (GB)J: Robert Tart Download The winner.co.uk App Now Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 4/1
29 Apr 15 Lingfield (AW) Masipa (IRE)J: Ryan Powell 25 Free Bet At Titanbet.co.uk Claiming StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 33/1
27 Apr 15 Kempton (AW) Diplomatic (IRE)J: Jim Crowley Betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Handicap (london Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 25/1
10 Apr 15 Leicester Masipa (IRE)J: Liam Jones Burton Overy Selling StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 20/1
08 Apr 15 Lingfield (AW) Harrogate Fair (GB)J: Liam Jones Baker Tilly Classified Claiming StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 7/1
27 Mar 15 Lingfield (AW) Masipa (IRE)J: Liam Jones Unibet HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 12/1
10 Mar 15 Southwell (AW) Masipa (IRE)J: Danny Brock Unibet Offer Daily Jockey/trainer Specials Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 16/1
06 Mar 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Mumarasaat (USA)J: Luke Morris Ladbrokes HandicapClass 7 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 14/1
02 Mar 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Gabrial's Wawa (GB)J: Adam Kirby Daily Enhanced 'magic Multiples' At Unibet HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 2/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Squance's strike rate?
Michael Squance has won 37 of 485 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Squance do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 120 runners (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Squance?
Luke Morris, with 69 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (8.7%).
What is Michael Squance's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 483 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).