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Jockey profile

John Tobin

72 rides in the lifetime window · 35 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Oct 2014 96% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
3–72
Wins / Runs
4.2%
Strike rate
n=72
12 (17%)
Placed
1.06
Fair A/E
n=72 · 0.79 incl. margin
−26.00
£1 level stake
n=72 at SP · −36.1%
£27,157
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.7%
KTB at a glance First rides: 5.9%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.9%+1.7
n=34 · A/E 1.81 · £1 +5.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−4.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5.6%+1.4
n=18 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
4.2%+0.0
n=72 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −26.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
1.8%−2.4
n=55 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −48.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 7.1% vs 4.2% · n=42
In Hurdle races 5.2% vs 4.2% · n=58 · A/E 1.26
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 58 3 5.2% −12.00
Chase 6 0 0% −6.00
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00
Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 21 0 0% −21.00
Good 19 1 5.3% +15.00
Good to Firm 16 2 12.5% −4.00
Heavy 11 0 0% −11.00
Good to Soft 2 0 0% −2.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 9 0 0% −9.00
Punchestown 8 0 0% −8.00
Down Royal 6 2 33.3% +33.00
Kilbeggan 5 1 20% +2.00
Roscommon 5 0 0% −5.00
Bellewstown 5 0 0% −5.00
Limerick 4 0 0% −4.00
Killarney 3 0 0% −3.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Clonmel 3 0 0% −3.00
Ballinrobe 3 0 0% −3.00
Gowran Park 2 0 0% −2.00
Dundalk (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Leopardstown 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 4 1 25% 2.05 +1.00
4th–6th fav 11 1 9.1% 1.24 −4.00
7th+ in betting 56 1 1.8% 0.71 −22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
84.4% completed · 64 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 6 33.3% 0 2 2 0 0
Hurdle 58 89.7% 0 1 3 0 2
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Never A Secret (IRE) 7 1 6 13 Jul 14
Lion Na Bearnai (IRE) 7 0 1 15 Aug 08
Progenitor (IRE) 4 0 1 17 Jul 14
Send For Mary (IRE) 4 0 0 28 Sep 13
Orion's Might (IRE) 3 0 0 15 Oct 14
Empresario (IRE) 3 1 1 3 Aug 14
Annagh Haven (IRE) 3 0 0 16 Oct 13
First Impressions (IRE) 3 0 0 24 Apr 13
High Destiny (IRE) 3 0 2 25 Sep 11
Jordans Quest (IRE) 3 0 0 6 Jul 10
Downtherefordancin (IRE) 3 0 0 17 May 08
Shahrafi (IRE) 2 0 0 25 Jun 13
All 35 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
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A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Thomas Gibney 23 1 4.3% +11.00
Michael Mulvany 13 0 0% −13.00
Hugh Paul Finegan 8 1 12.5% −1.00
Matthew J Smith 7 1 14.3% −2.00
Nigel Carolan 6 0 0% −6.00
S J Mahon 6 0 0% −6.00
David Anthony O'Brien 4 0 0% −4.00
Miss Jane Thomas 2 0 0% −2.00
Michael Fitzsimons 2 0 0% −2.00
Desmond McDonogh 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
3
Archived wins
£27,670
Prize money
2014
Best season · 1 win
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Never A Secret (IRE) — Athlone Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Kilbeggan · Jun 2013
£6,900
Empresario (IRE) — Taste downroyal Maiden Hurdle Down Royal · Jun 2014
£5,520
Between Me And You (IRE) — Bushmills Irish Whiskey Maiden Hurdle Down Royal · Aug 2011
£5,175
Notable horses
Never A Secret (IRE) Empresario (IRE) Between Me And You (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.5% of 17,043 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Fruits Of Love (USA) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
New Frontier (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9.1% of 857 runs since 2008 (62 horses).
Mujadil (USA) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,379 runs since 2008 (132 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.
Antonius Pius (USA) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.
Carrowkeel (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 6.3% of 158 runs since 2008 (23 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 79 · newest first

The latest 50 of 79 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 15 October 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
15 Oct 14 Punchestown Orion's Might (IRE)T: Nigel Carolan Join The Punchestown Newsletter For Best Offers Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 4th 20/1
27 Sep 14 Navan Orion's Might (IRE)T: Nigel Carolan Racing Again Wednesday 8th October Handicap Hurdle (80-116)20f · Good · 12 ran 8th 20/1
03 Aug 14 Galway Empresario (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (81-116)16f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran PU 20/1
17 Jul 14 Killarney Progenitor (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Dawn Hi + Lo Milk Handicap Hurdle (80-102)17f · Good · 17 ran 4th 10/1
17 Jul 14 Killarney Empresario (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Dawn Omega Milk Novice Hurdle17f · Good · 9 ran 7th 9/1
13 Jul 14 Sligo Never A Secret (IRE)T: Hugh Paul Finegan Guinness Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20f · Good · 13 ran 9th 12/1
08 Jul 14 Roscommon Progenitor (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Athleague Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 9th 50/1
06 Jul 14 Bellewstown Glasson Lad (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)20f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 13th 20/1
06 Jul 14 Bellewstown Brian The Warrior (IRE)T: Desmond McDonogh Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)20f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 11th 16/1
20 Jun 14 Down Royal Empresario (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Taste downroyal Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 1st 4/1
04 Jun 14 Punchestown Progenitor (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Festival Dreams Begin In Ireland With Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 25 ran 18th 66/1
17 May 14 Punchestown Progenitor (IRE)T: Matthew J Smith Kildare Hunt Club Supporting Kildare Gaa Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 24 ran 20th 66/1
25 Jan 14 Leopardstown Ahead Of The Pack (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany www.leopardstown.com (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 50/1
24 Jan 14 Dundalk (AW) Moonbi Creek (IRE)T: Michael Fitzsimons Dundalk Stadium - Light Up Your Night Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 8/1
17 Jan 14 Dundalk (AW) Captain Ahab (IRE)T: Michael Fitzsimons Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Maiden12f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 66/1
16 Oct 13 Punchestown Annagh Haven (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Go Racing In Kildare 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 5th 25/1
05 Oct 13 Gowran Park Annagh Haven (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Golf Memberships 2014 From 749 3-y-o Hurdle16f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 50/1
28 Sep 13 Navan Send For Mary (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Navan Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 17th 25/1
24 Sep 13 Ballinrobe Annagh Haven (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Ballinrobe Members Club 2014 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 8th 50/1
15 Sep 13 Listowel Orion's Might (IRE)T: Nigel Carolan Kerry Ingredients & Flavours 3-y-o Hurdle16f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Tobin's strike rate?
John Tobin has won 3 of 72 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Tobin's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 72 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).